NFL Nfl Predictions

As a man who lives and works in Green Bay, Wis., Aaron Rodgers knows. He's not blind or deaf. He sees the highlights, browses the web, listens to the talking heads. Like each and every one of his green-and-gold-clad neighbors, Rodgers is aware that the 2009 NFL season has been a turbulence-free cloud surf for Brett Favre and the Vikings and a brutal, muddy slog for his own Packers. You could actually argue that nobody knows this better than Rodgers, since no one else in town has (presumably) been sacked 43 times this year.

But since this is a day on which we're supposed to appreciate all the good things we have in life and take a little break from dwelling on the bad, I hereby invite the good people of Green Bay to fry up some Thanksgiving cheese curds, sit back and watch their man Rodgers dismantle the Detroit Lions. And as you watch, take a second to think to yourselves, "Hey, we could have it a lot worse."

Another week, another game of the century.

This time we'll have to wait through 15 other games -- until Monday night, when the Patriots face the Saints in New Orleans, the second meeting in three weeks with an unbeaten team for New England. And the second one in prime time, so the nation can watch to see if Bill Belichick, holding a six-point lead with two minutes left, might go for it on fourth-and-2 at his own 28 to keep the ball away from Drew Brees.

Given that situation again, he probably would. But not because a variety of "football scientists'' and mathematicians, who surfaced after the try in Indy. Belichick doesn't believe in cottage industries, publicity seekers or New York Times bloggers telling him what to do.

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8): New Orleans was tested last week -- in fact, they've been tested in each of their last four games. Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions and only six touchdown passes in those four games. You can expect the Saints to come out on Sunday and look to clean up their act a bit on offense as they play a divisional foe who doesn't have the arsenal to put up much of a fight.

Josh Freeman's play since taking over at quarterback is giving hope for the future in Tampa. He's thrown four touchdown passes and only two interceptions and seems to enjoy throwing to Kellen Winslow who has 11 receptions in his last two games. The Saints defense is a little beaten up, but should be able to hold off the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.

There are numerous reasons I think this, including the emotion and energy the Colts spent in coming back from two 17-point deficits to beat New England last Sunday night. But the main reason I think Indy will lose is that it has a lot less to play for than the Ravens.

The Colts are favored by one point, so the Vegas guys recognize that this isn't a walkover. And they also seem to recognize that Baltimore's rather lackluster effort in Cleveland Sunday night may have had more to do with the dismal opposition than a lack of form.

Could we all please stop telling Rex Ryan how to live his life? I mean, I think we should stop telling everybody how to live their lives, but we can start with Rex. Poor guy has coached nine games in the NFL and has already been called everything from a breath of fresh air to a blowhard to a crybaby. Yeah, in case you haven't heard the last thing on the Jets' head coach is that he cried during a team meeting Monday morning. The New York Post broke the story, and it became a big deal in New York. Ryan, to his credit, brought of box of tissues to his Wednesday news conference, joked that he'd just scored a sponsorship deal with Kleenex and said, "I'm man enough to be me."

"I'll be true to myself," Ryan said. "I'm always going to be, and I said that from day one. If I don't fit the stereotype of coach-speak or anything else, so be it. I'm always going to be myself."

Can I say I hope Ryan is reading this when I type, "Thank goodness?"

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

Denver (6-2) at Washington (2-6): Denver has lost its last two games and has shown an inability to score against good defenses. Washington's defense is ranked fifthh in the NFL, and that spells a much closer matchup than two teams with such opposite records should be involved in. It's extremely tough to throw against Washington, so Knowshon Moreno becomes a very important factor on Sunday. If he does well, Denver wins -- If Moreno falters, Denver loses.

It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.

This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.

The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.

The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.

Understandable on one level.

The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.

The Early Games

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2): The Giants are supposed to have one of the best pass rushes in the league, but they just haven't shown up in the past two games, with zero sacks over that time. They must get pressure on Donovan McNabb to have a chance on Sunday. Eli Manning also must figure out how to rebound from his four interceptions over the past two games.