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Thursday-and-Long: Green Bay Should Give Thanks for Aaron Rodgers

Dan Graziano — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:45:00 EST

Filed under: Packers, NFL Quarterbacks, NFL Predictions, NFL Analysis, NFL Notebook

As a man who lives and works in Green Bay, Wis., Aaron Rodgers knows. He's not blind or deaf. He sees the highlights, browses the web, listens to the talking heads. Like each and every one of his green-and-gold-clad neighbors, Rodgers is aware that the 2009 NFL season has been a turbulence-free cloud surf for Brett Favre and the Vikings and a brutal, muddy slog for his own Packers. You could actually argue that nobody knows this better than Rodgers, since no one else in town has (presumably) been sacked 43 times this year.

But since this is a day on which we're supposed to appreciate all the good things we have in life and take a little break from dwelling on the bad, I hereby invite the good people of Green Bay to fry up some Thanksgiving cheese curds, sit back and watch their man Rodgers dismantle the Detroit Lions. And as you watch, take a second to think to yourselves, "Hey, we could have it a lot worse."

The knock on Rodgers is that he's part of the sack problem -- that he holds the ball too long while he looks for the big play downfield at the expense of the often smarter, safer play that's right in front of him. And while this may well be a legitimate gripe, there are uglier warts you could potentially find on a 25-year-old second-year starting NFL quarterback.

Besides, think about what Rodgers is dealing with. The Packers' offensive line appears to be built out of a particularly soft kind of cheese, such as a Brie or a Camembert, only without the tough outer crust. Running back Ryan Grant is solid, but he's not a real option in the passing game. The Green Bay wide receivers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, are athletic downfield deep threats, and Rodgers is the kind of quarterback who can (and often must!) scramble, let a play develop and still make the throw, even on the run. Tight end Jermichael Finley, who can play in the slot and provide a shorter-range option when necessary, just missed three games (most of a fourth) with an injury. Add that all up, and it doesn't sound so foolish that a guy might be more inclined to take a few shots down the field.

And it's not as if he's getting them beat there. Rodgers is fifth in the NFL in passing yards, third in yards per attempt and sixth in the league with 19 touchdown passes -- and he's only thrown five interceptions. Just one guy in the league has started all 10 games at quarterback and thrown fewer, and yes, you can be pretty sure somebody in Green Bay has mentioned to Rodgers that the one guy is Brett Favre.

But Rodgers doesn't care. It may not seem fair that 40-year-old Favre and the Vikings get to have this dream season while he and the Packers have had to bleed and sweat and grunt their way to 6-4. But he's doing it anyway. Rodgers just keeps picking himself up off the ground and completing passes. At 25, he's playing and putting up numbers like one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL and he's got his team in the playoff hunt warts and all. And today, he gets to fire away at the worst pass defense the league has.

So Happy Thanksgiving, Aaron Rodgers. And Packer fans...watch, enjoy, and give thanks. Let the old man have his one last big year in Minnesota. The guy you have has been an awfully good replacement, and he's going to get even better.

Giant Headaches

Speaking of Thanksgiving games, what in the world is Giants co-owner John Mara complaining about? He's upset that his team has to fly out to Denver and play a game just four days after playing (and finally winning) one on the East Coast. Says this puts the Giants at a competitive disadvantage, especially because the Broncos played at home Sunday and haven't had to fly anywhere. But first of all, Mara was presumably on board with the rest of the owners when they approved the plans for the NFL Network and its Thursday night games. Did he vote thinking his team would never get picked for one?

Something's amiss with the Giants. The attitude around the place is all kinds of wrong. They've been wracked with injuries, sure, and that's a big reason for their struggles. But sometimes you just get a bad vibe from a team, and this year's Giants -- one of the league's biggest disappointments to date -- give off such a vibe. They seem to focus on the wrong things, whether it's Brandon Jacobs complaining that people like Ahmad Bradshaw's running style better than his or the defense fretting over the loss of fading linebacker Antonio Pierce or the owner complaining about having to play on a Thursday. Things just feel screwy around that place these days. Personally, I know they're favored and that the Broncos are in a free-fall, but I think the Giants lose this game tonight, and I don't think they make the playoffs.

Buffalo Hunt

Bills fans undoubtedly enjoy fantasizing about somebody like Mike Shanahan or Bill Cowher coaching their team next year, which is the reason the Bills don't mind letting it be known that they've contacted those guys. But the idea of a team that makes so little money off of its stadium that it has to play a home game in Toronto every year coming up with the cash to pay a Super Bowl champion coach in a competitive market is far-fetched, to put it kindly. There have been some whispers around the league connecting Marty Schottenheimer to the job, which makes a little more sense. But I wouldn't be surprised if, when the dust settled, the three leading candidates for the job were interim head coach (and defensive coordinator) Perry Fewell, well regarded special teams coach Bobby April or -- if the offense can manage to improve over the final six weeks -- even fresh-faced offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who's well liked by the owner and undoubtedly would come cheap.

Hat Tip of the Week -- Sheldon Brown, Eagles CB

An Eagles secondary that was already without defensive backs Joselio Hanson (drug suspension) and Ellis Hobbs (season-ending injury) didn't know how much it could expect Sunday from Brown and his strained hamstring. And in truth, Brown was limited against the Bears and aggravated the injury in the first half. But especially after Asante Samuel hit the bench with a neck injury, Brown insisted on playing, and he said he did so for a reason. "I'm playing mind games with my teammates," Brown told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "I want them to know there is no excuse." The Eagles have held up pretty well this year considering an incredible rash of injuries that started with Stewart Bradley in training camp and seems to have infected every part of the defense. If they're to keep it up, toughness has to be a big part of the equation, and the example Brown set by playing on one leg Sunday night can only help.

Three for the Road -- Back on the horse! The three road teams I liked last week -- Miami at Carolina, San Diego at Denver and Tennessee at Houston -- went a combined 3-0 for a brilliant recovery from the week before. The record now stands at 8-4 in the four weeks since I started doing this, and we'll keep it up. Road teams in the NFL went a respectable 7-9 last week but are still just 69-91 for the season -- a combined winning percentage of .431. That (and the fact that I don't like the Giants in Denver) means it was pretty hard to find three non-obvious picks for Week 12. But here they are, the three road teams I like this week:

1. Washington at Philadelphia. Out on a limb here, and nobody's getting rich this year picking the Redskins. But this is a hunch based on a banged-up Eagles secondary, a better-than-you-think Redskin defense and the fact that Washington actually outgained Philly 308-262 in the first meeting five weeks ago. Plus, the Eagles are due for one of these, no?

2. Arizona at Tennessee. Yes, the Titans are hotter than summer on Venus, but did you know the Cardinals are 5-0 this year away from home? They're the only team other than New Orleans and Indianapolis that has yet to lose a road game. For a defending conference champ with a three-game division lead, they don't get a whole lot of attention.

3. New England at New Orleans. Second time in three weeks I'm going to try with the Pats in prime time in the house of an undefeated opponent. The Saints have injury problems in the secondary, and when that's the case you don't want to see Brady, Moss and Welker come to town. This time, I'm just hoping Belichick remembers what the punter is for.

It's Just a Fantasy -- Three guys I wish I had on my fantasy team this week:

1. Aaron Rodgers vs. Detroit. Seriously. He's the highest-scoring QB this year, and did you see how good the Lions just made Brady Quinn look?

2. Thomas Jones vs. Carolina. If the Jets want to take some of the heat off of rookie QB Mark Sanchez, there's no better way than to hand the ball off to their quasi-star RB, who could gain big chunks against a Panther defense that's still weak in the middle of the line.

3. Randy Moss vs. New Orleans. It's Monday night. That's Randy's time.

Traveling Man

My game this week is the Cardinals-Titans game in Nashville. Storylines abound, from Kurt Warner's (is-it-or-isn't-it-a) concussion to Vince Young's renaissance to Chris Johnson's run at the rushing title to whether the Titans can really win 10 in a row and get into the playoff race. I'm looking forward to seeing whether Jeff Fisher's turbo-option offense, with its super-speedy quarterback and running back, can outscore Arizona's aerial attack. And anybody who has any ideas for a good place to eat in Nashville on Saturday night, let me know. I'm sure they have a few.

Thursday-and-Long: Green Bay Should Give Thanks for Aaron Rodgers originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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NFL Picks Week 12: Waiting Game

Dave Goldberg — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

Another week, another game of the century.

This time we'll have to wait through 15 other games -- until Monday night, when the Patriots face the Saints in New Orleans, the second meeting in three weeks with an unbeaten team for New England. And the second one in prime time, so the nation can watch to see if Bill Belichick, holding a six-point lead with two minutes left, might go for it on fourth-and-2 at his own 28 to keep the ball away from Drew Brees.

Given that situation again, he probably would. But not because a variety of "football scientists'' and mathematicians, who surfaced after the try in Indy. Belichick doesn't believe in cottage industries, publicity seekers or New York Times bloggers telling him what to do.

The odds guys make the Saints a three-point favorite in this one, meaning they (or the bettors) figure the teams are even and New Orleans gets the home field. Home field? The Pats might think so -- this is where they won the first of their Super Bowls, although other than Tom Brady and Kevin Faulk and Matt Light, there aren't any left from that game in January of 2002.

I keep thinking -- and writing -- that the Saints will lose one. But it's getting to crunch time. If it's not this one, then what? At Washington, at Atlanta, and home to Dallas are the next three. All possible (yes, even the Skins) but none as possible as this one.

Law of averages.

Patriots at Saints (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New England Patriots		35
New Orleans Saints	- 3	34

Law of averages again, although not only do the Texans not know how to close out games, but they've lost 14 of 15 lifetime to the Colts, including one a few weeks ago when Kris Brown (him again) missed the tying field goal in a 20-17 loss.

Gulp!

Colts at Texans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	- 3 1/2	17
Houston Texans		20

Ben says he'll play. The no line says, "don't risk your money.''

He'll play. More importantly, the Steelers signed two special teams players to tackle Ravens on returns.

Steelers at Ravens

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steeelers	No Line	13
Baltimore Ravens		10

Broncos playing badly. Giants on long trip off short week, which doesn't make them happy.

Giants at Broncos (Thurs.)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Giants	- 6	20
Denver Broncos		17

Off last week, can the Cowboys score 13 1/2 points to cover this line?

Raiders at Cowboys (Thurs.)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Oakland Raiders		9
Dallas Cowboys	- 13 1/2	13

Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Packers at Lions (Thurs.)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Green Bay Packers	- 11	42
Detroit Lions		20

Browns at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		3
Cincinnati Bengals	- 14	24

Bears at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears		3
Minnesota Vikings	- 8 1/2	24

Redskins at Eagles

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		6
Philadelphia Eagles	- 9 1/2	20

Seahawks at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks	- 3	20
St. Louis Rams		24

Cardinals at Titans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals	No Line	16
Tennessee Titans		24

Dolphins at Bills

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins	- 3 1/2	18
Buffalo Bills		15

Bucs at Falcons

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		13
Atlanta Falcons	- 13	31

Panthers at Jets

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers		24
New York Jets	- 3	13

Jaguars at 49ers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars		16
San Francisco 49ers	- 3	17

Chiefs at Chargers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		9
San Diego Chargers	- 13	30

LAST WEEK: 9-7 (spread), 11-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 90-69-2 (spread), 106-55 (straight up)

NFL Picks Week 12: Waiting Game originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 11

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8): New Orleans was tested last week -- in fact, they've been tested in each of their last four games. Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions and only six touchdown passes in those four games. You can expect the Saints to come out on Sunday and look to clean up their act a bit on offense as they play a divisional foe who doesn't have the arsenal to put up much of a fight.

Josh Freeman's play since taking over at quarterback is giving hope for the future in Tampa. He's thrown four touchdown passes and only two interceptions and seems to enjoy throwing to Kellen Winslow who has 11 receptions in his last two games. The Saints defense is a little beaten up, but should be able to hold off the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans

Atlanta (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4): The Falcons have had trouble of the defensive side of the ball all season. They've been unable to find a decent left cornerback and their "bend, don't break" defensive philosophy has gotten them in holes they cannot dog out of. On Sunday the Falcons also have a problem on offense. Michael Turner is listed as doubtful after suffering a high-ankle sprain and hasn't practiced all week. His backup Jerious Norwood has been limited all week fighting to come back from injury himself. With Matt Ryan in a bit of a funk, this offense may not be up to the task of getting enough points on the board to win.

The Giants spent most of their bye week fixing problems. Once teams get into the red zone, New York ranks last in the league in keeping them from scoring. The team did take a big hit when the Giants found out that Antonio Pierce would be out indefinitely with a bulging disc in his neck. His leadership will be missed, but Eli Manning should be able to pass well enough to keep the Giants well ahead of the Falcons all day.

Pick: New York Giants

Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1): The Seahawks have had trouble protecting Matt Hasselbeck. They've tried altering passing routes, keeping an extra man in to block and nothing seems to work. On Sunday they face a Minnesota team with more sacks than anyone else in the league. It could be a long day for Hasselbeck.

The question when teams face Minnesota is whether you guard against Adrian Peterson or Brett Favre. If you stack eight in the box to stop the run, Favre can make you pay. And that doesn't even mention that Peterson is good enough to gain yardage even against stacked boxes. If you back off and try to keep Favre from his many weapons through the air, Peterson hurts you even more.

Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7): Pittsburgh took an awful loss last week to Cincinnati and that's bad news for the Chiefs as the Steelers will come to town with their high-powered offense and run roughshod over Kansas City. Ben Roethlisberger should enjoy the extra time he'll have as the Chiefs only 12 sacks this season, and expect Rashard Mendenhall to fare well against the 24th-ranked run defense.

The Chiefs took a big hit this week when Dwayne Bowe was suspended for four games. Jamaal Charles is coming off of a 103 yard rushing performance and seems to be settling into the starting role nicely, but the Chiefs will have trouble putting up enough points to keep up. With Bowe gone, the offense may sputter when it has to open up the aerial attack to gain ground.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4): The Bills made more news off of the field this week than on, as head coach Dick Jauron was fired and interim coach Perry Fewell stuck with Jauron's plan to sack Trent Edwards and promote Ryan Fitzpatrick to starting quarterback. The Jaguars have the 26th-ranked passing defense, so Fitzpatrick may be able to throw on Sunday. Since both Lee Evans and Terrell Owens endorsed the quarterback change, you would hope they would step up to assist the new guy.

Even after screwing over fantasy owners and kneeling on the one yard line last week, Maurice Jones-Drew leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns. He also ranks fifth in rushing yards, which is important for two reasons. The Bills rank dead-last in run defense and their secondary tends to make quarterbacks offer up mistakes. The Jaguars will run the ball a ton on Sunday, which should make Jones-Drew's fantasy owners very happy.

Pick: Jacksonville

San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4): The Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the league and you saw what they did against a top-tier quarterback in Tony Romo last week. Alex Smith is going to have to play smart and pick perfect times to expose this defense, and he's going to need help from Frank Gore, who has looked great over the past three weeks.

For the first time all season, the Packers looked really comfortable in the 3-4 defense. They were getting three rushers on the quarterback in pass-rush situations and they looked very quick in the scheme. Charles Woodson also is starting to look like an All-Pro defensive back. He's getting pressure on the quarterback, picking off passes and forcing fumbles. If he can continue to do it all, so can Green Bay.

Pick: Green Bay

Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8): At least this isn't a Monday night game, right? Brady Quinn looked less then comfortable against the Ravens last week but gets a chance to face the leagues worst pass defense in Detroit.

Detroit may have the leagues worst pass defense, but Cleveland isn't much better as they rank 20th. They also rank 30th versus the run, so look for Kevin Smith to finally get his opportunity to break a couple of big plays this Sunday like the coaching staff has been wanting to see from him.

Pick: Detroit

Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3): Clinton Portis remains sidelined with a concussion which vaults Ladell Betts to the limelight. He's going to have trouble with the 9th-ranked run defense of Dallas and he's likely not going to get a lot of opportunities to carry the ball since Washington will be playing from behind for most of the afternoon.

The Cowboys have a three-headed monster in running backs Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. Why they ran the ball only 14 times in their loss to Green Bay last week is a mystery too tough even for those pesky kids from Scooby Doo. Washington's run defense ranks 24th and Jason Garrett would be silly not to keep the ball in the hands of Barber and Jones for most of the afternoon.

Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4): The Ravens are blitz-happy and take a lot of chances to put pressure on the quarterback. There isn't a quarterback in the league that's better at making teams pay for their mistakes than Peyton Manning, and you only need to look back one week for that point to be proven.

Ray Rice should be able to churn yardage on Sunday, but this 13th-ranked run defense in Indianapolis isn't as bad as it used to be. The real battle -- and this matchup could ultimately decide the victor -- will be between the two field generals, Manning and Ray Lewis. If Lewis can find a way to confuse and alter Manning's rhythm or the receivers route running, the Ravens have a chance.

Pick: Indianapolis

The Late Games

Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8): Kurt Warner is headed home on Sunday and you know he plays well in St. Louis. He's going to love to throw against the 25th-ranked pass defense, but the key to Warner's success on Sunday will be two-fold. When he gets protection from his offensive line he throws the ball extremely well. The Rams only have 15 sacks all season so Warner should have plenty of time. The second reason Warner will do well is Beanie Wells. Wells is on the verge of breaking out and he's averaging 5.3 yards per carry over his last four games. With the Cardinals giving Wells more touches, he'll take pressure off of Warner and the passing game.

St. Louis has only one win this season, but they aren't ready to roll over just yet. They beat Detroit in Week 9 and gave New Orleans everything they could handle last week. It's true that they likely don't have the personnel to beat the Cardinals, but Marc Bulger will be able to move the ball through the air against Arizona, and the Rams should score some points on Sunday.

Pick: Arizona

Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7): Cedric Benson is listed as doubtful for this game, which is unfortunate for him as the Raiders rank 29th against the run. Bernard Scott will take over and should fare well in Benson's absence. You may also see an early Larry Johnson sighting if Benson truly does not suit up. Cincinnati must avoid "looking to next week" as they face the Raiders -- wait, they face Cleveland in Week 12 and Detroit in Week 13. Looks as if Sunday could be the beginning of a very strong three-game run for the Bengals.

The JaMarcus Russell era has been put on hold in Oakland as the team has decided that Bruce Gradkowski should run the offense. He'll face an extremely tough test as he tries to throw against one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Gradkowski will need to find ways to advance the ball without allowing Hall and Joseph to interrupt the flow of his drives.

Pick: Cincinnati

New York Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3): The Jets started the season fast, but have faltered -- losing five of their last six games. Injuries have taken their toll, but the play of Mark Sanchez is front and center as an excuse for the negative downturn. He'll need to find a way reverse the two-to-one interception to touchdown ratio in his last six games if the Jets plan to win on Sunday.

There may be no more unenviable task than facing a Bill Belichick team after a loss, especially a loss that drew criticism like Belichick had never seen before. Expect his team to come out looking for blood and keep an eye on Randy Moss, who was shut down in his previous matchup against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. If Moss can get open and Wes Welker can provide the same reliable hands he always shows up with, New England might get the monkey of last week's loss, off of their back.

Pick: New England

San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3): This game features teams flying in opposite directions. The Chargers have won four straight and are happy that LaDainian Tomlinson is starting to get his running legs back. During San Diego's four-game winning streak they have scored 28.25 points per game and could exploit weaknesses in the Broncos defense that has been under-performing of late.

In the Broncos first six wins they allowed opposing offenses to score an average of 11 points per game. In Denver's last three losses, teams are putting up 28.3 points per game. The defense needs to find a way to solve their issues and return to early-season form.

Pick: San Diego

SNF

Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5): With Brian Westbrook still out with a concussion, the Eagle need LeSean McCoy to become more involved in the offense. He hasn't carried the ball more than 14 times as the featured back and Donovan McNabb could use the diversion from his passing game as the Eagles fare better in a balanced scheme.

When you're a gunslinger like Jay Cutler you expect to throw a few interceptions. But, you also have to come up with your fair-share of touchdown passes as well. Cutler has had only one game in his last five where he's thrown more touchdowns than interceptions, and the team hasn't done well over that time period either. Cutler may want to calm down a bit, but could really use Matt Forte to step up and rush like he did last season.

Pick: Philadelphia

MNF

Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4): The Titans have won three-straight since a bye week decision by Bud Adams pushed Vince Young into the starting role at quarterback. The team game-planned to help Young achieve and decided to give the ball to Chris Johnson as much as possible, a strategy that has turned him into one of the top rushers in the NFL. Not the defense has to fins a way to stop Matt Schaub who threw for four touchdown passes against them in Week 2.

Stopping Johnson will be priority number one on Monday for the Texans. Johnson blistered the Texans defense for three touchdowns and 284 all-purpose yards and is running better now than he was back when the teams first met. The Texans are coming off of bye week after a crushing loss to Indianapolis -- a game they should have won. If they can't find a way to beat Tennessee again, Houston's playoff chances will look bleak.

Pick: Houston

The Once-Over: Week 11 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 11 NFL Picks: Colts Goin' Down

Dave Goldberg — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

Let's get right to it: the Indianapolis Colts will lose for the first time this week in Baltimore, where they played for 34 years until the current owners father packed up the moving vans in the middle of one winter night and headed for Indianapolis.

There are numerous reasons I think this, including the emotion and energy the Colts spent in coming back from two 17-point deficits to beat New England last Sunday night. But the main reason I think Indy will lose is that it has a lot less to play for than the Ravens.

The Colts are favored by one point, so the Vegas guys recognize that this isn't a walkover. And they also seem to recognize that Baltimore's rather lackluster effort in Cleveland Sunday night may have had more to do with the dismal opposition than a lack of form.

Motivation?

The Colts will win the AFC North, as they almost always do.

They are likely to get home-field advantage in the AFC -- they lead Cincinnati by two games already for that honor. And, frankly, they don't seem to care very much about finishing unbeaten in the regular season as long as they're unbeaten in the playoffs. In past years when they had long unbeaten runs to start the season, they always said a title was more important. And their former coach, Tony Dungy, said on NBC Sunday night "... when they rest people late in the season,'' a statement that implies there will be no reason to play hard late.

So let's make this loss number one against a team that knows it probably will have to settle for a wild-card spot and work hard to get even that.

And don't discount the extra noise they'll encounter from fans who still remember the Irsay family's defection. They may respect No. 18 of the Colts but he'll never replace No. 19 in their hearts.

Colts at Ravens (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	- 1	24
Baltimore Ravens		27

No line because Kyle Orton has a sprained ankle. Denver has no shot with the rusty Chris Simms, a slightly better one with a gimpy Orton.

Chargers at Broncos

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers	No Line	20
Denver Broncos		6

Rex Ryan cried this week instead of woofing at the Patriots. Bill Belichick mumbled, as he always did. And gave a perfectly rational explanation for going for that first down. He won't need to this week.

Jets at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Jets		20
New England Patriots	- 10	34

This is the kind of game I like to watch (I'm not kidding).

Browns at Lions

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		2
Detroit Lions	- 3 1/2	11

The Giants have lost four straight. That will end, but so will a much more bizarre streak: the visiting team has won the last 12 games in this series going back to 1979.

Falcons at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons		18
New York Giants	- 6 1/2	27

;

Eagles at Bears (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	- 3	31
Chicago Bears		13

Titans at Texans (Monday

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans		29
Houston Texans	- 4 1/2	30

Bills at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills		10
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 8 1/2	16

Redskins at Cowboys

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		13
Dallas Cowboys	- 11	20

Dolphins at Panthers (Thurs.)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		20
Carolina Panthers	- 3	29

Steelers at Chiefs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 10	27
Kansas City Chiefs		5

Bengals at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals	- 9 1/2	21
Oakland Raiders		3

Seahawks at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks		10
Minnesota Vikings	- 11	31

Saints at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 11	35
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		17

Cardinals at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals	- 9	37
St. Louis Rams		19

49ers at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Francisco 49ers		13
Green Bay Packers	- 6 1/2	16

LAST WEEK: 9-6 (spread), 8-7 (straight up)

SEASON: 81-62-2 (spread), 95-50 (straight up)

Week 11 NFL Picks: Colts Goin' Down originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Thursday-and-Long: It's Rex Ryan's Party, He Can Cry If He Wants To

Dan Graziano — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions, NFL Analysis, NFL Notebook

Could we all please stop telling Rex Ryan how to live his life? I mean, I think we should stop telling everybody how to live their lives, but we can start with Rex. Poor guy has coached nine games in the NFL and has already been called everything from a breath of fresh air to a blowhard to a crybaby. Yeah, in case you haven't heard the last thing on the Jets' head coach is that he cried during a team meeting Monday morning. The New York Post broke the story, and it became a big deal in New York. Ryan, to his credit, brought of box of tissues to his Wednesday news conference, joked that he'd just scored a sponsorship deal with Kleenex and said, "I'm man enough to be me."

"I'll be true to myself," Ryan said. "I'm always going to be, and I said that from day one. If I don't fit the stereotype of coach-speak or anything else, so be it. I'm always going to be myself."

Can I say I hope Ryan is reading this when I type, "Thank goodness?"

I mean, god forbid anybody in the NFL act a little different from everybody else in the NFL, right? Somebody new comes along, been dreaming of this job his whole life and decides he's going to do it the way he always imagined he'd do it instead of the way everybody thinks he should, and just because his team hits the midseason skids we're supposed to take him for some kind of jerk? He kids around about Bill Belichick's rings or get into a long-distance insult match with Channing Crowder, and he's supposed to button up until he's won something? He encourages his players to talk trash, and we're supposed to believe that's the reason they're losing?

If Mark Sanchez were still throwing the ball the way he did in September, and Leon Washington were still scatting and dancing in and out of the backfield, and Kris Jenkins were still clogging up things in the middle on defense, would this even be an issue? (Well, Ryan might not be crying, but you get the point.) And is it ridiculous to imagine that what Ryan says and does is a reflection of what he truly thinks and feels, as opposed to some kind of motivational or misdirection ploy?

The popular doctrine states that Ryan's act is "refreshing" only if the Jets win. What a bunch of simple-minded hogwash. First off, Ryan's players adore him, so it shouldn't really matter what the establishment thinks. And secondly, are we all so conditioned now to think that winning is the only important thing that we forget that what we're watching is supposed to have some entertainment value? Rex Ryan has entertainment value win or lose. Win or lose, sincerity, humor, emotion and perspective-infused intensity are refreshing in an NFL increasingly populated with scowling, hoodie-wearing clones.

Let's all stop judging Ryan on every word that comes out of his mouth and every tear that drops from his eyes. Let's take a step back and ponder whether the measure of this guy as a head coach might come down to more than the first nine games. Let's all chill out and let the man be himself. If we do that, we might all realize that he's actually fun to listen to. That maybe he's an actual person, maybe even a good guy. Maybe even somebody we can admire and learn something from. Even if he doesn't make the playoffs.

Isn't that a bizarre concept?

Ground Control Update

I've been trying to track a stat for which I don't yet have a name (but am still taking suggestions). It's designed to measure how teams control the run game on both sides of the ball, and it's a simple calculation. You take a team's yards-per-carry on offense and subtract the yards-per-carry it allows on defense. For instance, the best teams in the league at this are the Titans (5.5 ypc offense, 4.4 ypc against on defense) and the 49ers (4.4 on offense, 3.3 against on defense), who both score a +1.1.

As you can see, these teams get to the number quite differently. Tennessee and curve-buster Chris Johnson (yes, I'm going to run a photo of him in this spot every week until somebody holds him under 200 total yards) are a more prolific run team than San Francisco by more than a yard per carry, but San Francisco is much better at stopping the run. But in a ground-acquisition game, total net yards are a worthwhile metric, so to me both Tennessee (which is already out of it) and San Francisco are candidates for strong finishes if they can control to control their run games and those of their opponents so well.

The only other team currently scoring at least a +1 is the Dallas Cowboys, which makes the fact that they called 14 run plays and 39 pass plays in Sunday's loss to the Packers seem even more idiotic than it does on its face. The Cowboys, as has been written here and elsewhere before, must lean on running backs Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice if they are to be consistent and successful. They can love Tony Romo all they want, but the three backs are what give them an edge on their NFC rivals. The trick is, they have to actually use them.

There are four teams -- Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Miami -- that score a +0.9 on this scale. Those Ravens aren't done yet, I tell ya...

At the other end, it's the Houston Texans who do the worst, averaging a league-worst 3.3 yards per carry on offense and allowing opponents 4.7 yards per carry on defense for an eye-poppingly rotten -1.4. They're in scary company, too. The -1.0 teams are Kansas City, Buffalo and Cleveland. And while San Diego checks in at -0.9, the four teams in front of them are Detroit and Tampa Bay (both -0.8) and Oakland and Seattle (both at -0.5).

As brilliant as Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson may be, it doesn't bode well for the Texans to make a playoff run if they can't control the running game at all. We'd say the same about San Diego, but as long as the Broncos keep tailspinning, they can win the AFC West without calling another run play all year.

Hat Tip of the Week -- LaTorsha Tomlinson.

Leaving a positive pregnancy test in husband LaDanian's locker before the game inspired the all-time-great Chargers' RB to a vintage performance against the Eagles on Sunday. The couple had struggled to get pregnant and endured a 2005 miscarriage, and LaDanian was emotional when he revealed after the game what his wife had done. We live in a society that places impossible demands on its sports heroes, and we all forget sometimes that they're human beings who can have bad days/weeks/months at work for the same reasons the rest of us do. What a touching and uplifting reminder of that the Tomlinsons' story was.

Three for the Road -- After two very strong weeks, Three for the Road went a pitiful 0-3 last week, losing with the Cowboys in Green Bay, the Eagles in San Diego and yes, the Patriots in Indianapolis. Really felt like I had that last one. And I wish I'd had the guts to pick the Bengals in Pittsburgh, but I didn't.

For those unfamiliar, road teams in the NFL are a combined 62-82 this year -- a winning percentage of just .431. But that doesn't stop me from using this spot each week to pick three road teams I think will win. Thanks to last week's tumble, I'm now 5-4 since I started doing this. Here are this week's three road teams I like:

1. Miami over Carolina. No, the short week has not been kind to the Dolphins, who got the news Wednesday that star running back Ronnie Brown is out for the year. But Miami is the toughest, scrappiest, hard-fightingest team in the league, and I have a hunch Ricky Williams and the defense step up with a big one tonight against a Panthers team that thinks (mistakenly) that it's back in the playoff hunt.

2. San Diego over Denver. The Chargers have burned us all before, and could lay an egg in Denver the way the Cowboys did last week in Green Bay. But Kyle Orton is hobbling and the Broncos are hurtling back toward earth with the speed and grace of a mortally wounded goose. The Chargers were supposed to be the class of the AFC West, and this is the week that reminds us of that.

3. Tennessee over Houston. Just have this feeling that Chris "Sonic the Hedgehog" Johnson and Monday Night Football were made for each other.

It's Just a Fantasy -- Three guys I wish I had on my fantasy team this week :

1. Ricky Williams vs. Carolina. Not because of the opponent, but because of the upgrade in situation. Williams has been scoring like a starting RB all year, and with the Brown injury he now gets to be one. Sure, he's 32, but he took enough time off that his body hasn't absorbed the pounding most RBs take by 32. He can be the Dolphins' No. 1 RB, their wildcat QB, whatever they need, and I see a big finish.

2. Andre Johnson vs. Tennessee. Talk about guys who are in for a big finish. With Owen Daniels out and Houston's schedule soft against the pass, Big Andre is in line for even more targets and even more jaw-dropping plays over the season's final seven weeks.

3. Anquan Boldin vs. St. Louis. What can I tell you? My team is light on WRs. Boldin is getting healthier, Arizona's schedule is getting easier and it doesn't get a whole lot easier than the Rams.

(Not) Traveling Man

This week I'm staying close to home, making the 20-minute drive down Route 17 to the Meadowlands to see the Falcons play the Giants. Did you know this is the fourth time this year the Falcons have played a team that was coming off its bye week? Impressively, they were 2-1 in the first three, beating the Bears in Week 6 and the Redskins in Week 9 while losing to the Cowboys in Week 7. I say the Giants drop that record to 2-2. They seem like they're in a decent place mentally in spite of the four-game losing streak. Danny Ware being healthy enough to take his place in the running back rotation will actually help Brandon Jacobs be more comfortable. And the Atlanta defense is a mess, particularly at cornerback, where Eli Manning should be able to pick them apart. There are just too many reasons to like the Giants here, in a game where the loser will drop to 5-5 and into big playoff-picture trouble.

Thursday-and-Long: It's Rex Ryan's Party, He Can Cry If He Wants To originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 10

Knox Bardeen — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:23:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

Denver (6-2) at Washington (2-6): Denver has lost its last two games and has shown an inability to score against good defenses. Washington's defense is ranked fifthh in the NFL, and that spells a much closer matchup than two teams with such opposite records should be involved in. It's extremely tough to throw against Washington, so Knowshon Moreno becomes a very important factor on Sunday. If he does well, Denver wins -- If Moreno falters, Denver loses.

This Redskins defense, for the most part, shut down Matt Ryan last week and should have no trouble taking care of Kyle Orton. Where this defense is weak is tackling in the secondary. If they let Moreno do to them what Michael Turner pulled off in Week 9, the Redskins will be toast.

Pick: Denver

Buffalo (3-5) at Tennessee (2-6): Buffalo ranks second in the NFL with 15 interceptions and gets to face an unproven Vince Young in Week 10. Buffalo's play-caller, Trent Edwards, is returning after missing two games with a concussion. He'll need to step back in and instantly tune in with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans for the Bills to have a chance.

Young has this Titans team on a two-game winning streak, and he'll need to be careful against a Bills' secondary that is famous for making quarterbacks pay for mistakes. It helps that Young is extremely mobile and has one of the best running backs in the league in Chris Johnson in the backfield.

Pick: Tennessee

New Orleans (8-0) at St. Louis (1-7): There really hasn't been enough said about how explosive this Drew Brees offense is. Jeremy Shockey is not only the benefactor of Brees' passing, but he's showing that he's very comfortable in the system, whether he lines up at tight end or as a receiver outside.

If the Rams are to have a shot on Sunday, Steven Jackson is going to have to have a superb game against the 17th-ranked run defense of New Orleans. Marc Bulger hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 6 -- that needs to change as well.

Pick: New Orleans

Cincinnati (6-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2): I realize that Cedric Benson has been a beast of late. In three of his last four games, Benson has rushed for 100-plus yards. With all due respect to Benson, though, if the Bengals win this game, they'll do it with defense. The Bengals move around a lot before the snap creating blocking nightmares for offensive lines. If they can get to Ben Roethlisberger, they can win this game.

Roethlisberger was always a leader on the field and in the locker room, but now he has turned into a statistical leader as well. Only three quarterbacks in the NFL have a better quarterback rating, and nobody is running the no-huddle better than "Big Ben" right now. While in the no-huddle, the Steelers control the clock and substitution patterns, which could wreak havoc on Sunday. As good as the Bengals' pass rush is, they are ranked 23rd against the pass while the Steelers have the fifth-ranked passing offense in the league.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (4-4) at New York Jets (4-4): In four road games this season, David Garrard has been held without a touchdown pass. If you think that Rex Ryan isn't planning on a few tricks to keep that streak in tact, especially coming off of a bye week, you're kidding yourself. That said, Maurice Jones-Drew is going to have to take over and run well against this 13th-ranked run defense.

Mark Sanchez will surely have a lot of time to make good decisions on Sunday. Jacksonville has only eight sacks this season (worst in the NFL) and ranks 28th with just five interceptions. This looks like a great day for the rookie quarterback to get back on track.

Pick: New York Jets

Detroit (1-7) at Minnesota (7-1): The Lions are having trouble defining the style of defense they'd like to play. No matter if they choose zone or man-to-man, they are going to have trouble all afternoon with this high-powered Vikings team. Kevin Smith has been asked to break off a few more big-plays -- that's going to be tough against such a stout interior defensive line.

Kevin and Pat Williams are a defensive duo unmatched anywhere in the NFL. Not only do they clog the middle, but get they get their hands on the quarterback in pass-rush situations quite a bit. With them on the inside, and Jared Allen on the outside of the defensive line, the Lions will have trouble all day getting into a rhythm.

Pick: Minnesota

Tampa Bay (1-7) at Miami (3-5): Rookie Josh Freeman had a spectacular opening game as he led his Buccaneers to a win over Green Bay in his first career start last week. He's going up against a young secondary this week, but faces one of the fiercest front-sevens in the business.

Chad Henne hasn't been the same quarterback over the past three weeks that he was in his first two starts for Miami. His completion percentage needs to rise while Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown continue to rush the ball well.

Pick: Miami

Atlanta (5-3) at Carolina (3-5): The Falcons' players and coaches rode a bus on their three hour journey up I-85 to Charlotte this week -- Atlanta felt that the bus would get the team to their destination quicker than hopping on a plane. Now that Michael Turner has broken out of his funk and posted two consecutive back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing games, the Falcons will need him to continue to drive the bus into the end zone. Especially since Matt Ryan has had his share of troubles of late.

The Panthers are going to find a much better pass defense in Week 10 then they saw in Week 2 where Jake Delhomme threw for 308 yards (one of only two times this season he's thrown for over 300). That's bad news for Delhomme who has three interceptions and only one touchdown pass in his last three games.

Pick: Atlanta

The Late Games

Kansas City (1-7) at Oakland (2-6): It's time to see if the K.C. running back tandem of Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles can make fans forget about the ugly mess Larry Johnson caused over the past few weeks. Oakland ranks 29th against the run, so this is a very nice stepping stone for these guys.

JaMarcus Russell has two things going for him this week: He's coming off the healing effects of a bye week, and he gets to face the 30th-ranked Kansas City defense. He's also going to benefit from the return of Darren McFadden, who hasn't played since Week 4.

Pick: Kansas City

Philadelphia (5-3) at San Diego (5-3): The Eagles are a dynamic passing team, but last week, rookie Jeremy Maclin was exposed as he had trouble getting into his routes in man-to-man coverage. He's got to break free in the first five yards of his route and give Donovan McNabb two solid, down-field options. The Eagles pressure defense loves to blitz and their front seven is extremely fast -- they must get to Phillip Rivers.

On offense, Rivers is going to have to find ways to elude the Eagles' pass-rush. One of the most effective methods is with the screen pass -- which could spell a big day for Darren Sproles. As long as Rivers stays upright and the Chargers pass-rush can get pressure on McNabb and force him into errant throws, the Chargers will have a good day.

Pick: San Diego

Dallas (6-2) at Green Bay (4-4): Dallas is really starting to shine in the defensive backfield where it is challenging wide receivers to make plays. The Cowboys have been able to shut down opposing offenses and have outscored opponents by almost 12 points per game in their last four games -- all wins. But on Sunday, all eyes will be on DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas pass-rush.

The offensive line in Green Bay is struggling. That means that Ware and Jay Ratliff should find many opportunities to get their hands on Aaron Rodgers, who has been accused of holding the ball too long. If Rodgers can't, or isn't allowed, to get the ball into the air, the Packers will struggle mightily.

Pick: Dallas

Seattle (3-5) at Arizona (5-3): The offensive line in Seattle might as well play with flag football rules where they aren't allowed to make contact with the pass rush -- it's like they aren't there anyway. Matt Hasselbeck has almost zero time to throw the ball, forcing him to focus entirely on short routes and screens. The run game is absent as there is no room to run in the middle.

Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner are finally starting to gel, and that's not good for defenses in the second half of the season.Warner torched the Bears in Week 9 for five touchdowns and should be able to get similar output this week at home against the Seahawks.

Pick: Arizona

SNF

New England (6-2) at Indianapolis (8-0): Forget about Tom Brady and his 5-2 record head-to-head versus Peyton Manning. This game is going to be won by the individuals catching the ball. Randy Moss ranks seventh and Wes Welker fifth in receptions (remember Welker missed two games early in the season) and when Benjamin Watson is your quarterback's security blanket, things are good in the passing game.

As fantastic as Manning is, I'm not sure that he can score enough points to offset deficiencies the Colts have on defense, especially in the secondary. Kelvin Hayden is listed as day-to-day and Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson are already on the injured reserve list. If Brady is going to be throwing to his plethora of targets and they are guarded by fourth- or fifth-string cornerbacks, the Colts may be in for a nightmarish evening. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are going to have to put tremendous amounts of pressure on Brady for the Colts to have a chance.

Pick: New England

MNF

Baltimore (4-4) at Cleveland (1-7): Baltimore has a storied past of superb run-defenses. The Ravens have fallen off a bit this season, but still rank in the top-ten. Not only will they face a running back in Jamal Lewis who is banged up and won't be at 100 percent on Sunday, they also face a Browns offense that only has two rushing touchdowns all season.

The Browns seem to be more worried about the intensity of practice and which quarterback will start from week-to-week, then they are focused on winning football games. Their offense is anemic as they only average 9.8 points per game and their defense gives up more yards than any other team in the league.

Pick: Baltimore

The Once-Over: Week 10 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:23:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 10 NFL Picks: Midseason Super Bowl in Indy

Dave Goldberg — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Colts, Patriots, NFL Predictions

It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.

This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.

The line is what you'd expect: Colts favored by 3 for home field.

The game may not be what the odds guys expect. This hasn't always been a series for the home team -- the Pats won 24-20 in Indy in 2007 en route to the perfect regular season that ended imperfectly in the Super Bowl. This year, it's the Colts who are unbeaten, although they're hardly dominant -- if Houston could close games, it might have beaten the Colts last week.

Based on that and based on the sense that the Colts are due to lose:

Patriots at Colts (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New England Patriots		24
Indianapolis Colts	- 3	20

The Thursday night games start now for the increasing number of fans that can get the NFL Network. But these are not exactly the hottest teams in the league: the 49ers have lost four straight; the Bears have lost three of four, with the only win over Cleveland -- which probably shouldn't count.

Bears at 49ers (Thursday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears		19
San Francisco 49ers	- 3	27

That line is perception as much as anything.

Even though the Bengals won 23-20 at Paul Brown Stadium in the first meeting, we're talking here about the Super Bowl champions and a "public' team'' against a team perceived as perennial losers. OK, not just perceived.

Yes, the Steelers should win at home, but ...

Bengals at Steelers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals		16
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 7	19

The Chargers, now only a game behind the Broncos in the AFC West, might petition for a transfer to the NFC East if they win this after beating the Giants.

Eagles at Chargers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	+ 2	17
San Diego Chargers		23

Shudder to think of DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff against a Green Bay OL that's allowed 37 sacks.

Cowboys at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys	- 3	30
Green Bay Packers		20

;

Brady Quinn is back. Good night for a comeback by the Ravens D.

Ravens at Browns (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 10 1/2	30
Cleveland Browns		6

Broncos at Redskins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Denver Broncos	- 3 1/2	16
Washington Redskins		15

Jaguars at Jets

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars		20
New York Jets	- 7	24

Lions at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		20
Minnesota Vikings	- 16 1/2	42

Saints at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 13 1/2	39
St. Louis Rams		17

Bills at Titans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills		16
Tennessee Titans	- 6 1/2	21

Falcons at Panthers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons	- 2	26
Carolina Panthers		27

Bucs at Dolphins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		10
Miami Dolphins	- 10	28

Seahawks at Cardinals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks		20
Arizona Cardinals	- 8 1/2	28

Chiefs at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		7
Oakland Raiders	- 1 1/2	9

LAST WEEK: 9-4 (spread), 9-4 (straight up)

SEASON: 72-56-2 (spread), 87-43 (straight up)

Week 10 NFL Picks: Midseason Super Bowl in Indy originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Thu, 12 Nov 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 9

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7): After being handed an emotional loss last week by Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers could sure use a break on their schedule. They've already enjoyed their bye week, but a game against Tampa Bay is almost as good. Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to throw the ball as only two teams have fewer sacks than the Buccaneers

Josh Freeman, Tampa's quarterback of the future, has finally had his number called and is now the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers. Green Bay is ranked 7th in passing yards allowed, so Freeman might find his first game as a starter an unpleasant experience.

Pick: Green Bay

Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3): Kurt Warner was picked off five times and had six total turnovers last week and has seemed impatient at times this season. Defenses are sitting back and making the Cardinals beat them on the ground -- which is a good strategy since Arizona is the worst rushing team in the league.

Matt Forte had a much-needed coming out party last week as he rushed for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He's going to face a tough run defense in Arizona, but Carolina showed ways last week to get it done on the ground. The Cardinals are much more susceptible through the air. Devin Hester and Jay Cutler should enjoy connecting a few times on Sunday.

Pick: Chicago

Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3): Jason Campbell is going to have to deal with some added pressure coming in on the pass rush from Atlanta. The Falcons have made good use of the safety blitz to get more pressure on the quarterback and Campbell isn't the most accurate passer when he's on the run. Clinton Portis will need to find a way to brutalize the 23rd-ranked run defense or the Redskins will have trouble moving the ball all afternoon.

Matt Ryan hasn't been sharp over the last three weeks and whispers of a sophomore slump are growing louder by the minute. Only one team has given up fewer passing yards than Washington, so Ryan is going to have work very hard to beat this team through the air. Luckily for the Falcons, Michael Turner broke out of his funk last week and rushed for 151 yards. He'll be needed on Sunday for the Falcons to win.

Pick: Atlanta

Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2): Do the Ravens miss Rex Ryan and his defensive leadership or are the players that make up the nucleus of the defense aging and becoming less effective? It's a question we won't likely answer, but there is a reason why the Ravens were a top-2 defense in yards per game allowed and takeaway margin in 2008 and they are barely middle of the pack this season.

Cedric Benson embarrassed the Ravens defense in their first meeting this season, becoming the first running back in 40 games to rush for 100-plus yards. He broke off 120 yards in Week 5 mainly because his blockers were able to tie up the Ravens linebackers so Benson could get free into the secondary. He must be able to do that again this Sunday for the Bengals to win.

Pick: Baltimore

Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2): Miami, and their use of the Wildcat offense, gave New England fits in their first meeting of 2008. But, as you would expect from a great coach, Bill Belichick found a way to overcome the Wildcat in their second meeting last season. Belichick and his Patriots are coming off of a bye week and had extra time to prepare for this Dolphins offense. Expect them to keep Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams contained and pushed back towards the middle of the field where the Patriots defense can help.

You always have to fear the big-play ability of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. But now Sam Aiken is showing that he can produce from the No. 3 spot, especially with his run after the catch abilities. Tom Brady should throw well against the 21st-ranked Miami pass defense.

Pick: New England

Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4): This is a chance for Jamaal Charles to show the Chiefs that he should be the No. 1 running back, no matter what happens to Larry Johnson after his one-game suspension. Charles should shine against the Jaguars' 23rd-ranked run defense.

The best player on the field this Sunday will be Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a great after-initial-contact runner and has prime time explosiveness. But the Jaguars need to get him the ball more frequently and as early in the game as possible. Last week, MJD didn't touch the ball until the 5:50 mark in the 2nd quarter.

Pick: Jacksonville

Houston (5-3) at Indianapolis (7-0): Now that Ryan Moats has emerged as a between-the-tackles runner to compliment Steve Slaton's outside abilities, Houston could really test the Colts' run-stopping ability. And, if neither Slaton or Moats can get going, the Texans have a guy at quarterback that can do just about anything Peyton Manning can. With the defensive backfield of the Colts depleted, Matt Schaub could have a big day.

No matter what defenses do to stop Reggie Wayne -- whether it's double coverage or designing schemes specifically to stop him -- he seems to overcome the obstacle. Wayne is a true No. 1 receiver who can line up anywhere and run any route. And when Manning can't get him the ball in the end zone, Joseph Addai finds ways to connect.

Pick: Indianapolis

The Late Games

Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5): The Lions have dropped 15 straight road games, and even though Seattle has only two wins this season, it's never an easy place to play. Matthew Stafford needs to put his poor performance from last week behind him and prove to everyone that his knee is healed.

Seattle is having offensive line issues -- so much so that John Carlson is going to be asked to give up a few pass routes to stay back and block for Matt Hasselbeck. If this protection strategy works, Hasselbeck could have a field day against a beat up Lions secondary.

Pick: Seattle

Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0): Julius Peppers has six sacks over his last four games and he'll need to keep pressure on Drew Brees all afternoon for the Panthers to have a chance. The Falcons showed last week that Brees could be rattled. When Carolina is on offense their power running game could shine, and it'll need to perform well. The duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart ran all over the top-ranked rush defense last week and should see success on Sunday.

Believe it or not, the Panthers have won six straight games at the Superdome. Carolina's top-ranked pass defense matches up well against Brees and his myriad weapons on offense. In the end, the Saints will show why they're the best team in football right now.

Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4): Vince Young didn't hurt his football team last week after taking over as the Titans starting quarterback. He'll need to continue playing as close to mistake-free as possible and Chris Johnson will need to find a way to break away from the league's second-best rush defense.

Now that Alex Smith has Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis firing on all cylinders, head coach Mike Singletary may allow the offense to be opened up a bit. Week 9 is a good time to air it out as no team in the NFL has allowed more passing yards this season than Tennessee.

Pick: San Francisco

San Diego (4-3) at New York Giants (5-3): LaDainian Tomlinson hasn't returned to be the runner he was three years ago, but he has steadily improved as the season has progressed. But Phillip Rivers should be the star this week as the Giants have given up an average of 37.3 points per game over the last three games -- a weakened secondary to blame for a lot of the opposing points.

Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should be able to run at will against this 27th-ranked run defense of San Diego. And that's fantastic news since Eli Manning hasn't been the same quarterback since his foot injury.

Pick: San Diego

Sunday Night Football

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2): Tony Romo may still be hearing the chatter of an annoying negative-Nellie among his receiving corps, but that's about the only issue with the offense in Dallas right now. Miles Austin has been absolutely incredible since taking over as the No. 2 receiver and Marion Barber seems to be getting better and better each week.

Brian Westbrook will return from a concussion to play in this rivalry game and that should take some of the heat off of Donovan McNabb. What should really excite the Eagles on offense this week is the weakness in the Cowboys' secondary of giving up the big play. No team has a more exciting deep-route tandem than Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.

Pick: Dallas

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1): Pittsburgh may move their new pass-first offensive scheme back to a heavy run option, at least until they've slowed down the Denver pass rush by using Rashard Mendenhall. Once the Steelers have established the run, look for Ben Roethlisberger to open up and show the Broncos why he's the third-ranked passer in the NFL with 2,062 passing yards.

Kyle Orton had trouble throwing deep against Baltimore last week and his pass protection was suspect. The Steelers are better on defense against the pass than the Ravens and are the top-ranked run defense in the league. That's not great news for Knowshon Moreno who hasn't had a 100-yard rushing game yet this season.

Pick: Pittsburgh

The Once-Over: Week 9 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos

Dave Goldberg — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.

The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.

Understandable on one level.

The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.

Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks. So is there any reason to believe it can't beat Pittsburgh?

Not really.

But there is a sense that Kyle Orton, no matter what he's done this season, is not Ben Roethlisberger. And that Pittsburgh is always a force, even at altitude. Moreover, the Steelers are coming off a bye. This season more than others, that seems to help.

Steelers at Broncos (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 3	20
Denver Broncos		16

This has the same feel as Pittsburgh-Denver -- the road team is favored on reputation as much as performance, as if folks aren't quite ready yet to buy the Bengals' 5-2 record. Or not ready to buy the Bengals' consistency.

But the matchups here favor the Bengals. If the Baltimore defense isn't what it was, it's primarily because of the cornerbacks. If Carson Palmer gets time ...

Ravens at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 3	24
Cincinnati Bengals		27

The Cowboys can't avoid the soap opera aspect that surrounds them, even when they're playing well, as they are right now. This time it's Roy Williams and his T.O. act -- you can almost see the tears as he proclaims himself the No. 1 receiver on the team but suggests that Tony Romo throws the ball straighter to Miles Austin and Jason Witten.

The good news for Donovan McNabb is that all HIS weapons -- DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy, in particular -- are young. So they shut up.

Cowboys at Eagles (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys		34
Philadelphia Eagles	- 3	35

After three straight losses, Tom Coughlin has proclaimed this a must win. That's probably right. The New York defense is still hurting but San Diego doesn't play very well when it comes east -- although the late starting time will help.

Chargers at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers		27
New York Giants	- 5	29

Another line that seems off based on the way the Texans have been playing..

Texans at Colts

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans		34
Indianapolis Colts	- 9 1/2	35

Panthers at Saints

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers		27
New Orleans Saints	- 13 1/2	37

Dolphins at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		17
New England Patriots	- 11	31

Redskins at Falcons

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		13
Atlanta Falcons	- 10	20

Packers at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Green Bay Packers	- 10	31
Tampa Bay Bucs		10

Chiefs at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		13
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 6 1/2	17

Titans at 49ers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans		10
San Francisco 49ers	- 4	21

Lions at Seahawks

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		9
Seattle Seahawks	- 10	24

Cardinals at Bears

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals		27
Chicago Baers	- 3	24

LAST WEEK: 4-8-1 (spread), 8-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 63-52-2 (spread) 78-39 (straight up)

Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 8

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:58:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New York Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2): The Giants are supposed to have one of the best pass rushes in the league, but they just haven't shown up in the past two games, with zero sacks over that time. They must get pressure on Donovan McNabb to have a chance on Sunday. Eli Manning also must figure out how to rebound from his four interceptions over the past two games.

The Eagles are not without their problems. Injuries aside to key offensive personnel, McNabb just hasn't been terribly accurate of late. When he gets pressured, he makes mistakes with his arm, which is why Philadelphia is still inserting Wildcat plays into its offense.

Pick: Philadelphia

Miami (2-4) at New York Jets (4-3): In their last meeting, the Dolphins used the Wildcat to confuse and obliterate the Jets defense. Expect more of the same from a Miami offense that is 2nd in the NFL in time of possession and 2nd in rushing yards on first down. By keeping their offense on the field, the Dolphins control the game and give Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown opportunities to score.

The Jets are averaging 184.9 yards per game rushing this season, which is best in the league. But, they lost Leon Washington for the season, and for that not to be a devastating loss, Shonn Greene needs to continue to run the ball like he did last week when he was forced into action. Watch how Mark Sanchez reacts to the top-notch Miami pass rush. If he falters, so will the Jets.

Pick: Miami

San Francisco (3-3) at Indianapolis (6-0): Michael Crabtree gave glimpses in his first NFL action last week why he felt he was right to hold out. And he's only going to get better each week, especially with the rapport he's developing with Alex Smith. But Smith isn't as good as he showed everyone last week, so temper expectations and expect this week, at times, to see why he's wasn't handed the starting job in the first place.

Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the league right now, and he might be playing better this season than he ever has in his illustrious career. He's also enjoying the fact that the Colts are running the ball well. A positive ground game only gives more credibility to Manning's play fakes.

Pick: Indianapolis

St. Louis (0-7) at Detroit (1-5): The Lions are very vulnerable versus the pass and play lots of one-on-one, which may turn out to be a negative this week. Donnie Avery should be able to exploit the one-on-one coverage and see great gains down the field. The best player on the field though, will be Rams running back Steven Jackson. He has 804 all-purpose yards but doesn't have a touchdown. He may get one this week.

The Lions have been without rookie Matthew Stafford and No. 1 receiver Calvin Johnson. Stafford may play this week, which would be nice against the Rams 29th-ranked pass defense, but Johnson is more of a question mark. While the Lions may be able to score, their defense likely won't be able to stop St. Louis.

Pick: St. Louis

Seattle (2-4) at Dallas (4-2): Seattle's offensive line has been suspect in pass protection for Matt Hasselbeck. He was roughed up last week and he'll be hurried and under pressure more this week in Dallas against a much better front seven. Expect Hasselbeck to be frustrated all day.

Miles Austin has officially taken over at wide receiver in Dallas. He was targeted 23 times over the past two games, 10 more times than Jason Witten. The offense is on fire and Tony Romo is grateful to finally have a true No. 1 receiving option to throw towards.

Pick: Dallas

Cleveland (1-6) at Chicago (3-3): The Browns have been miserable on offense this season. Four times out of seven they've scored less than 10 points in a game and they do not have a rushing touchdown from a running back yet.

It's difficult to determine who's at fault for the Bears rushing woes, but I'm going to lay blame directly on the offensive line. They must stick to blocks and open lanes for Matt Forte if this offense is going to get on track. The Bears also didn't adjust well to an unbalanced line from Cincinnati and Cedric Benson made them pay last week. Fortunately for Chicago, they get a home game against Cleveland -- there couldn't be a better prescription for fixing what's wrong.

Pick: Chicago

Houston (4-3) at Buffalo (3-4): Andre Johnson suffered a bruised lung but is expected to play on Sunday. That's good news for Houston and Owen Daniels, who can go back to quietly leading the Texans in touchdown receptions. Steve Slaton, after a few poor rushing performances, has found a way to be a game-changer -- it's in the receiving game. Matt Schaub is hitting him a lot and it's really opened things up for Houston.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for Trent Edwards who still hasn't recovered fully from a concussion. The one person who will really like that is Lee Evans who has developed a special bond with Fitzpatrick. Rookie Jarius Byrd has five interceptions over the last three weeks. He's going to see a lot of passes thrown into the secondary on Sunday. His ability to continue picking off throws is crucial to Buffalo's chances.

Pick: Houston

Denver (6-0) at Baltimore (3-3): Both teams are coming off of bye weeks and will be well rested. Hopefully that won't be a momentum killer for Brandon Marshall, who has awoken lately with four touchdowns over the last four games. Denver, on defense, needs to pay special attention to the play action, an area of trouble for Denver but a play Baltimore runs very well.

Ray Rice has emerged as a powerful back with great speed, an enviable combination. But, Baltimore will win this game if they are able to force Denver into a few turnovers. Kyle Orton has only thrown one interception and that has lent so much towards his success. If Ed Reed can force Orton into a few mistakes, the Ravens will win this game.

Pick: Baltimore

The Late Games

Jacksonville (3-3) at Tennessee (0-6): When the Jaguars run the ball well, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew is at the top of his game, the team wins. But don't hang all of Jacksonville's hopes on its ground attack. David Garrard can hurt defenses with mobility as well as his pocket presence.

Tennessee is a run-first kind of team, and that will be even more evident this week as Vince Young takes over at quarterback. Jacksonville has only allowed three touchdowns this season on the ground and caused a league-leading seven fumbles. Young is going to have to beat the Jaguars through the air.

Pick: Jacksonville

Oakland (2-5) at San Diego (3-3): Oakland's shut-down corner Nnamdi Asomugha has only been thrown towards seven times this season. That's an incredible figure, but also a sad fact as it's one of the few things the Raiders can brag about.

With the Chargers rushing attack stagnant, Phillip Rivers is having to beat teams through the air -- something he's very comfortable doing. San Diego ranks third in the league in pass plays of 25 yards or more with 16 this season. Whether they throw towards Asomugha or not, San Diego will throw, and do it effectively against Oakland.

Pick: San Diego

Carolina (2-4) at Arizona (4-2): You may look at all of Jake Delhomme's interceptions and see a struggling quarterback, and you'd be accurate in that assessment. But his errant throws are also negatively effecting the Panthers' defense by given opposing offenses a very short field to work with.

Teams just don't fear Delhomme any longer and Arizona will be able to bring its safeties up to help with the run. That's bad news for Carolina, which is already facing the top run defense in the league in Arizona. If Delhomme can't fire down field to open up the run game, Arizona will sit in the box all day and crush Carolina.

Pick: Arizona

Minnesota (6-1) at Green Bay (4-2): Brett Favre finally gets to return to Green Bay and, as much as he tries to downplay this storyline, it just keeps growing. Favre has been sacked nine times over the last three weeks and he will be facing a better pass rush this week than he saw the last time he faced the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers threw for 384 yards in a losing effort against Minnesota earlier this season. The Vikings are still vulnerable to the pass and Rodgers should do well this week in Lambeau. Also look for A.J. Hawk and Cullen Jenkins to really get pressure on Favre and force a mistake or two.

Pick: Green Bay

MNF

Atlanta (4-2) at New Orleans (6-0): Week 7 in Dallas was a tough one for the Falcons, and especially Matt Ryan, who was finally sacked a few times. New Orleans can bring the pass rush too and their pass defense is very stingy, only allowing five passing touchdowns this year. Michael Turner will need to accelerate his game as the lack of the big play is holding him back. In 2008, through six games, Turner had six rushing plays of 20 yards or more. This season he only has one.

The Saints have scored 45 points or more four times this season and the Falcons' defense shouldn't be able to do too much to keep New Orleans from making if five. Drew Brees should have a field day throwing into the Atlanta secondary -- especially since the Falcons will likely blitz to get pressure on Brees, leaving their cornerbacks vulnerable.

Pick: New Orleans

The Once-Over: Week 8 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:58:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 8 NFL Picks: Favre-Fest, Part II

Dave Goldberg — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The hype for Brett Favre's return to Green Bay was inevitable as soon as he made his decision to return for yet another NFL season, this with the Minnesota Vikings. It's now officially out of hand as Brett returns to Wisconsin.

Is all this anticlimactic? After all, Favre already has faced the Packers -- at the Metrodome in Week Four, quarterbacking the Vikings to a 30-23 win. In a Monday night game, no less.

But yes, this is something else -- a return to the place Favre played for 16 seasons and led the Packers to two Super Bowls, winning one and getting them to the brink of several others. A hero turned -- in the eyes of numerous Green Bay fans -- into a traitor.

While the media hypes everything it can -- Fox will have a "Favre cam'' -- it' should be noted that this is an important game, especially for Green Bay. The Vikings are 6-1, the Packers 4-2, so a Minnesota win puts it two games ahead in the loss column plus a tiebreak in the NFC North; a Green Bay win makes them even there.

Green Bay is favored by three points -- for that home-field advantage. Favre and the Vikings lost last week for the first time -- in Pittsburgh, a tough venue because of some freaky bounces and a bad call.

Favre Cam says ...

Vikings at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Minnesota Vikings		23
Green Bay Packers	- 3	20

I'm going to wear out this one.The Broncos WILL lose a game this year. Almost surely more than one or two.

They are a good team but the Ravens are an unlucky 3-3.

Broncos at Ravens

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Denver Broncos		16
Baltimore Ravens	- 3	20

Six games into the season, fans in New Orleans are talking 16-0 on the way to 19-0. Not Sean Payton, of course. Nor all but one of his players. They know better, except for Reggie Bush, who won so much at Southern Cal that he's forgotten that parity is the rule in the NFL. But fans who have spent the 40-year life of the team rooting primarily for hard-core losers have stars in their eyes.

Take heed. Another team with "New'' in front of its name found out about 19-0.

Not this week. Or at least probably not.

Falcons at Saints (Monday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons		30
New Orleans Saints	- 10	37

Giants are favored? After losing two straight? They may be getting a little healthier and the Eagles should be without Brian Westbrook. (Should because the guy was knocked unconscious with a concussion last week and that ought to be a mandatory one week vacation.)

Giants at Eagles

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Giants	- 1	21
Philadelphia Eagles		17

The folks in Vegas love this game. They've been taking a beating because they can't make the line high enough to cover the beatings the NFL's awful teams have been taking. This week they get two awful teams.

Home field.

Rams at Lions

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
St. Louis Rams	+ 4	20
Detroit Lions		30

Dolphins at Jets

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		16
New York Jets	- 3	17

Browns at Bears

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		17
Chicago Bears	- 14	27

Texans at Bills

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans	- 3 1/2	13
Buffalo Bills		16

49ers at Colts

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Francisco 49ers		20
Indianapolis Colts	- 13	34

Seahawks at Cowboys

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks		24
Dallas Cowboys	- 10	39

Panthers at Cardinals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers		17
Arizona Cardinals	- 10	31

Jaguars at Titans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars		8
Tennessee Titans	- 3	9

Raiders at Chargers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Oakland Raiders		20
San Diego Chargers	- 17	24

LAST WEEK: 7-6-1 (spread), 10-3 (straight up)

SEASON: 59-44-1 (spread) 70-34 (straight up)

Week 8 NFL Picks: Favre-Fest, Part II originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 7

Michael Katz — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 11:15:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 7 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sun, 25 Oct 2009 11:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 7

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New England (4-2) at Tampa Bay (0-6): Tom Brady threw for six touchdown passes last week, five in one quarter alone. And to be honest, it gets easier for him this week in London against the Bucs. Expect fireworks from the Patriots offense, as Brady is beginning to click with Randy Moss, and he's extremely happy that Wes Welker is back in action.

On defense, the Buccaneers don't have the speed or skill at the cornerback position to defend against Brady and the Patriots' aerial attack. On offense, the Bucs are young and inexperienced -- especially at the quarterback position where Josh Johnson is already looking in the rear-view mirror at competition from Josh Freeman.

Pick: New England

Indianapolis (5-0) at St. Louis (0-6): Peyton Manning hasn't been sacked in over a month, and that kind of protection has allowed him to throw for 300-plus yards in each of his five games. Only four teams have given up more yards through the air than St. Louis, so Manning should prosper on Sunday.

St. Louis is having all kinds of trouble on offense. Their pass protection is poor, which directly effects how much time Marc Bulger has to throw the ball. His receivers are also having trouble getting open. Put those two issues together and the offense will have loads of trouble moving the ball.

Pick: Indianapolis

Minnesota (6-0) at Pittsburgh (4-2): With the news that Adrian Peterson will play on Sunday, Brett Favre can relax and know that the Steelers must protect against the run and pass. Pittsburgh blitzes a lot, and they do it well, but Favre has seen just about everything -- and is thinking with the wisdom of a 40-year-old but playing like he's in his late twenties.

Nobody in the league has thrown for more passing yards then the Pittsburgh Steelers and that's a new offensive philosophy. Whether or not their pass-first mentality is by choice or out of necessity remains to be seen. The Ravens scored 21 points in the final 10 minutes of their game against Minnesota last week and Ben Roethlisberger will look to tear apart the Vikings defense in the same manner.

Pick: Pittsburgh

San Diego (2-3) at Kansas City (1-5): In each of the last two seasons, the Chargers have started 2-3. They've also bounced back nicely from this low point each time. The Chargers have to love their chances for getting a start on three years in a row since Kansas City is their opponent. Shawne Merriman hasn't registered a sack yet in 2009 -- look for that to change as the Chiefs have given up an AFC worst 22 sacks.

Kansas City notched its first win last week against Washington. Before spirits get too high, remember that the Chiefs have tons of trouble with missed tackles in their secondary. They also rank 27th against the pass -- which does not bode well against a San Diego offense that throws downfield very well.

Pick: San Diego

San Francisco (3-2) at Houston (3-3): The 49ers will see a return to action and a debut this week as they travel to Texas -- Frank Gore says he's healthy, and will be a welcome return addition to the rushing attack; Michael Crabtree, who ended his holdout less than a month ago, will make his NFL debut and has looked very impressive in practice this week.

No passer in the NFL has thrown for more touchdown passes than Matt Schaub. And he's so successful because he and Steve Slaton set up the pass so well with superb play-action fakes. Andre Johnson has been the benefactor of four of Schaub's 14 touchdown passes, and when the quarterbacks' favorite target is covered, Jacoby Jones can step right in seamlessly.

Pick: Houston

Green Bay (3-2) at Cleveland (1-5): The Green Bay Packers have given up 25 sacks this season, which is a stat that Aaron Rodgers surely feels. His offensive line should take most of the blame, but not all. Rodgers must do a better job of syncing with his receivers so he avoids the coverage sacks that he's taking.

Last week, the Browns gave up nine pass plays of 20 yards or more in their game against Pittsburgh. Green Bay comes to town with the third-best passing attack in the NFL based on yards per passing attempt. If Cleveland wants to avoid another week of giving up big pass plays, it'll have to shut down routes and stop the yards after the catch by tackling well.

Pick: Green Bay

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Latest NFL Photos

Denver Broncos tight end Tony Scheffler dances through the end zone after his 19-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter of the NFL football game Monday, Oct. 19, 2009 in San Diego. Scheffler had six receptions for 101 yards. The Broncos won 34-23 over the Chargers. (AP Photo/Chris Park)

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Latest NFL Images

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris answers a reporter's question during a media availability at their hotel in London, Saturday afternoon, Oct. 24, 2009. The Buccaneers will play an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in London on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber answers a reporter's question during a media availability at the NFL football team's hotel in London, Saturday afternoon, Oct. 24, 2009. The Buccaneers will play an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in London on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber walks into a room for a media availability at the NFL football team's hotel in London, Saturday afternoon, Oct. 24, 2009. The Buccaneers will play an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in London on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris smiles as he talks to reporters during a media availability at their hotel in London, Saturday afternoon, Oct. 24, 2009. The Buccaneers will play an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in London on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

Oakland Raiders head coach Tom Cable smiles during an NFL football news conference at Raiders headquarters in Alameda, Calif., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. The Napa County district attorney announced that Cable won't be charged in connection with allegations that Cable assaulted assistant coach Randy Hanson on Aug. 5, 2009, during a meeting at the team's training camp hotel in Napa, Calif. Hanson went to the hospital to get treated for a broken jaw. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oakland Raiders head coach Tom Cable smiles as he leaves an NFL football news conference at Raiders headquarters in Alameda, Calif., Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009. The Napa County district attorney announced that Cable won't be charged in connection with allegations that Cable assaulted assistant coach Randy Hanson on Aug. 5, 2009, during a meeting at the team's training camp hotel in Napa, Calif. Hanson went to the hospital to get treated for a broken jaw. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, foreground, and his back-up quarterback Brian Hoyer, run across the field during practice at the Brit Oval Cricket Ground in London, Friday afternoon, Oct. 23, 2009. The Patriots will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London on Sunday. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

The Late Games

New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland (2-4): For the first three weeks of the season, the Jets looked unstoppable and Mark Sanchez was already being deemed Offensive Rookie of the Year. But the last three weeks haven't been kind to the New York team that's taken three losses, or to their rookie quarterback who threw five interceptions last week.

JaMarcus Russell has 10 turnovers through six games this season and that kind of inconsistency and poor decision-making should be taken advantage of by this Rex Ryan defense. With Darren McFadden still out with an injury, Justin Fargas has taken over as the main back and will likely carry the ball much more than Michael Bush this week.

Pick: New York Jets

Buffalo (2-4) at Carolina (2-3): Buffalo is one of two teams in the NFL that has already allowed 1,000-plus yards rushing against them. The Bills can't seem to stop the run, even if they stack nine defenders in the box. This is bad news as Carolina has two running backs in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams that can really run.

After starting the season with three losses, Carolina is on a two-game winning streak. It's not a coincidence that Julius Peppers has four sacks in the Panthers' two wins, but only one in their three losses

Pick: Carolina

New Orleans (5-0) at Miami (2-3): The Saints have been a prolific passing team for a while now. Last season, they ranked 28th with their rushing attack, but this season they rank 4th. When a team can run and pass like New Orleans, not much can stop it.

The Dolphins rank third against the run and will probably be able to slow the duo of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. But they're going to have to pack linebackers into the box to fill running lanes, which will open up the middle of the field for Drew Brees and Jeremy Shockey.

Pick: New Orleans

Atlanta (4-1) at Dallas (3-2): When Brian Williams went down in Sunday night's victory over the Bears, it marked the second starting defensive player to fall with a season-ending injury this year. Chevis Jackson knows the defense and will step in without a hitch, but he's going to have his hands full with tight end Jason Witten.

Dallas is 9th in the NFL in total yards on offense but almost half of those 2,102 yards have come at the expense of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Tony Romo works well when he gets the ball out quickly to his receivers and he'll have his fair share of success on Sunday. The real battle will be to see if Dallas' massive offensive line can combat Atlanta's smaller, faster defensive front.

Pick: Dallas

Chicago (3-2) at Cincinnati (4-2): When your running back has more fumbles then touchdowns through five games, you may be in trouble. Matt Forte is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and needs to get on track and help his team like he did last season. Cincinnati gives up less than 100 yards per game on the ground so Forte has his work cut out for him.

Chad Ochocinco, through Twitter, and Cedric Benson, through the media, have made Sunday's matchup a battle of words as well as an on-the-field contest. The Bears have struggled against top-notch receivers this season, but their run defense is ranked fourth in the NFL -- they won't need to use Benson's words as motivation to stop him.

Pick: Chicago

SNF

Arizona (3-2) at New York Giants (5-1): The last two times Kurt Warner has played in the Meadowlands, he's come away empty-handed. It's been a task every week just to make sure his receiving corps is healthy, and he'll need all hands on deck to beat the Giants. Arizona's defense is the best in the NFL against the run. Before you get up for a chest-bump look at the fact that they're 31st against the pass. Teams don't run against Arizona because it is extremely easy to throw the ball.

You already know that Eli Manning is going to throw the ball this week. The fact that Brandon Jacobs is starting to find his rhythm and Ahmad Bradshaw is healthier than he's been in a while may mean that the Giants can run a bit, too. The Giants should also feel good at home on defense where they have nine sacks in two games versus just five sacks in four games on the road.

Pick: New York

MNF

Philadelphia (3-2) at Washington (2-4): The Eagles may have trouble passing the ball on Monday night as the Redskins have the 6th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. That means they may rely on Brian Westbrook to score some points. In two meetings last season Westbrook only rushed for a combined 78 yards and a touchdown. But, he caught 12 passes for 122 yards. His ability to be a dual-threat out of the backfield could make all the difference this week.

The Redskins offense has not been able to score points. And even though they can move the ball at home, they've only been able to muster two touchdowns and six field goals in three games at home. To make matters even more sad, those home games were against three teams (St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Kansas City) they should have been able to score on much more frequently.

Pick: Philadelphia

The Once-Over: Week 7 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 24 Oct 2009 09:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 7 NFL Picks: Brett's Boys Due For A Loss

Dave Goldberg — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: FanHouse Previews, NFL Predictions

There aren't normally this many unbeaten teams left after six weeks of the season -- the number right now is four, a "modern'' record. (which means nobody really knows who did what back in the days of the Canton Bulldogs and Providence Steamrollers.)

There might be only one after this week: Denver, which isn't playing. Although, to get serious, does anyone really expect the Rams to beat the Colts? And we'll get to the Saints later.

But it's time for the Vikings to lose (yes, I've said that before.) If not for Brett Favre and Greg Lewis, they would have lost to San Francisco. If not for Steve Hauschka, the Raven's field-goal kicker, they would have lost last week to Baltimore.

This week's game is at Pittsburgh -- FINALLY, the Vikings play a good team on the road. The Steelers are favored by either four or four-and-a-half points, more than the three points they get for home field. Which means that people think the Steelers are simply a better team. (Super Bowl winners die hard).

There's some sense to that.

The Vikings' three road games have been at Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis, who have two wins among them this season. Their home games are against San Francisco, Green Bay and Baltimore. As noted, they probably should have lost two of them.

It doesn't mean they'll lose again. But they're not the 2007 Patriots and the law of averages says ...

Vikings at Steelers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Minnesota Vikings		19
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 4 1/2	24

Just as the Saints had a week off to prepare for the Giants in last week's battle of the unbeatens, the Dolphins had their bye week before this game. No, Miami's secondary isn't much good, but the Dolphins do have the ability to control the clock with their wildcat -- that's how they almost beat the Colts.

Saints at Dolphins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 7	24
Miami Dolphins		23

Tom Coughlin doesn't like to lose two in a row. But how hard the wind is blowing Sunday night at the Meadowlands may be more important than Kurt Warner, his receivers and the still rather disheveled New York secondary.

Cardinals at Giants (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals		23
New York Giants	- 7	27

Jerry Jones tells the world he didn't trade someone (presumably backup TE Martellus Bennett). Thirty teams didn't trade anyone, so why do we care?

Falcons at Cowboys

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons	+ 4	33
Dallas Cowobys		31

If you're like me and don't remember these teams EVER playing, here's the facts: they've met eight times and Cincy actually leads 5-3, winning 24-7 in Chicago in 2005. The Bengals don't have Antwan Odom. They do have a revenge-minded Cedric Benson against his old team.

Bears at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears		19
Cincinnati Bengals	- 1	17

Chargers at Chiefs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers	- 5 1/2	27
Kansas City Chiefs		17

Colts at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	- 14	37
St. Louis Rams		16

Browns at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		0
Green Bay Packers	- 7	26

Patriots at Bucs (Game being played in London)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New England Patriots	- 15 1/2	37
Tampa Bay Bucs		3

49ers at Texans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Francisco 49ers		20
Houston Texans	- 3	27

Jets at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Jets	- 6	9
Oakland Raiders		13

Bills at Panthers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills	- 7	24
Carolina Panthers		13

Eagles at Redskins (Monday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	- 7	17
Washington Redskins		13

LAST WEEK: 9-5 (spread), 7-7 (straight up)

SEASON: 52-38 (spread) 59-31 (straight up)

Week 7 NFL Picks: Brett's Boys Due For A Loss originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 6

Michael Katz — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The NFL FanHouse team is putting its prediction skills to the test with a little friendly survivor pick 'em league. Each week, every competitor will choose one NFL winner, keeping in mind that you can't pick the same team more than once during the year. But it's a dangerous game: Get one wrong, and you're out.

Last week, Tom Mantzouranis picked the Browns to beat the Bills. Derek Anderson only completed two passes and Cleveland still won.

Here's the point: Maybe we should all give up now. This is a man of destiny.

Knox Bardeen -- Jets over Bills. No way they lost three in a row, right?

Bruce Ciskie -- Steelers over Browns. The Steelers are probably capable of scoring more than three points in a game against a crappy team.

JJ Cooper -- Eagles over Raiders. JaMarcus Russell vs. the Eagles defense? This seems too easy.

David Goldberg -- .Eagles over Raiders. Theory: The best way to win this game is to pick against a bad team.

Michael Katz -- Jets over Bills. Mark Sanchise should complete two passes on the opening drive.

Tom Mantzouranis -- Steelers over Browns. Do I have to justify this pick?

Matt Snyder -- Steelers over Browns. The Browns are due for a letdown from their incredibly heart-wrenching victory last week. There's simply no way they can keep playing like the world-beaters they were last week.

Stephanie Stradley -- Patriots over the Titans. I haven't picked the Patriots yet, and the Patriots are at home. Without the Titans defense to carry the them, they are a mess.

Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 6 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sun, 18 Oct 2009 10:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Once-Over: Week 6

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:15:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3): Not only have the Redskins lost three out of five games but they haven't scored 20 points yet in any contest. There couldn't be a better time to welcome the winless Chiefs into town as head coach Jim Zorn is fearful of losing his job and injuries on the offensive line have Clinton Portis worried his season could jump off track

The Chiefs have to like the idea of playing against the down-trodden Redskins. And Larry Johnson could have a big game against the 23rd-ranked rush defense of Washington. But for Kansas City to prevail, Matt Cassel needs to be able to throw the ball effectively against a pass defense that doesn't give up a lot of yards.

Pick: Washington

Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5): The Panthers tasted victory for the first time last week, beating Washington in dramatic fashion. For a team that needs to put a few wins together, waking up with Tampa Bay next on the schedule is a good thing. The Tampa defense ranks 29th against the rush and 22nd against the pass -- great news for DeAngelo Williams and Jake Delhomme.

The receiving corps in Tampa has been the walking wounded this season but Antonio Bryant looks "the best he's looked since OTA's," according to head coach Raheem Morris. They'll need a healthy Bryant and some help from their young quarterback Josh Johnson to get into the win column. Keep an eye on the backfield as the Bucs will have all three running backs active and Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham all seem likely to play this week.

Pick: Carolina

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2): Derek Anderson is coming off of a game where he only completed two passes (2 of 17) and totaled 23 yards through the air with one interception. The Browns, in a winning effort, only scored six points last week but the task gets much more challenging as they arrive in Pittsburgh. Expect the same offense but not the winning result.

Pittsburgh gets a few players back from injury this week with Troy Polamalu likely to play for the first time since Week 1 and Willie Parker back as well. Parker could back up Rashard Mendenhall but Polamalu will give the defense a needed boost.

Pick: Pittsburgh

New York Giants (5-0) at New Orleans (4-0): In a battle to become Alpha-Male in the NFC the Giants bring a high-powered offense that ranks 4th in scoring with 30.2 points per game to town. Eli Manning needs to be healthy enough to play a full game, something he hasn't done since injuring his foot. Manning hasn't practice in full all week, but the Giants say that he's resting during the week and his partial participation is by design, not because he's still injured.

No team in the league scores more then New Orleans. Their offense churns out 36 points per game and they are coming off a bye-week, so they'll be well rested. Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas both needed the time off and they'll share carries out of the backfield and Drew Brees should continue to keep scoreboard operators very busy.

Pick: New Orleans

Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0): The Ravens have lost two in a row and traveling to Minnesota puts them in danger of a three-game losing streak. The Ravens have been penalized 19 times for 161 yards in those two games, and the lack of focus is showing up in inopportune times. The defense needs to step up (something I didn't think I'd ever say about a Baltimore team) and Ray Rice needs continued success running the ball.

The Vikings offense has been a well-tuned machine all season. Brett Favre is spreading the ball around and he's been given the time to make good decisions by his offensive line. That all stops on Sunday. The Ravens defense should pressure Favre into a few mistakes, and they allowed a 100-yard rusher last week for the first time in 40 games. The Ravens will focus on making sure Adrian Peterson doesn't hit that milestone this week.

Pick: Baltimore

St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3): While the Jaguars defense will be focused on stopping the run and keeping Steven Jackson contained, their offense will be gearing up to run the ball, much to the liking of Maurice Jones-Drew. Only four teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns than St. Louis -- meaning MJD should excel on Sunday if he gets the ball as much as he'd like.

Marc Bulger is back and that's great news for the Rams. He's not that much more prolific than Kyle Boller but he really cuts down on the mistakes -- Bulger has only one turnover in four games while Boller had five in three games. Jacksonville is ranked 31st against the pass, so you're going to see Bulger throw the ball a lot on Sunday.

Pick: Jacksonville

Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2): Not only do the Detroit Lions have the unenviable task of playing the Packers after a bye week, they also may have to play without quarterback Matthew Stafford and star receiver Calvin Johnson. That's not exactly how the Lions wanted to enter Lambeau Field, a place they haven't won in 18 tries.

Green Bay is having trouble protecting their quarterback this season. In four games, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 20 times -- most in the NFL. The Detroit pass-rush isn't daunting so Rodgers may have some time to hook up with his favorite target, Donald Driver. Driver will also become the Packers all-rime leading receiver with his next reception.

Pick: Green Bay

Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1): For five consecutive weeks, the Bengals have played in games that were decided in the final minute of the game. And remember we're only five weeks into the season. It would be nice for Cincinnati to win a game convincingly. To do that, Cedric Benson needs to continue building on a great season rushing the ball. He's facing the 28th-ranked run defense which bodes well seeing as how he's already proven that he can run well against top-ten defenses of Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Matt Schaub is on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards this season and eclipse 30 touchdown passes. Three times this season already he's thrown for 300-plus yards, and the fact that he's throwing against a defense ranked 23rd against the pass is a good sign his numbers will continue to climb.

Pick: Houston

The Late Games

Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3): Arizona comes into Seattle with an offense that is very capable of putting up big numbers. They'll be put to the test as Seattle allows just eight points per game at home. Kurt Warner must be kept upright as the Cardinals pass protection has been "iffy" at times. Anquan Boldin had one heck of a game in his last trip to Seattle as he has 186 yards receiving and 13 catches. More of the same is needed on Sunday.

Matt Hasselbeck says he feels fine and he'll lead an offense that can air it out. T.J. Houshmandzadeh has 13 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks and Nate Burleson is eighth in the NFL with 358 receiving yards. This trio should have a field day against the 27th-ranked Arizona pass defense.

Pick: Seattle

Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4): It just seems unfair. When Donovan McNabb goes down with an injury, Kevin Kolb steps in and the Eagles don't miss a step. Brian Westbrook has been slowed by injuries, too, but LeSean McCoy has come to the rescue averaging 4.1 yards per carry. The Philadelphia offense has too many weapons and is very deep -- too deep for good top-tier teams, much less the hapless Raiders.

Oakland's offense is the worst in the NFL, averaging 191.6 yards per game and scoring only 9.8. Whether it's JaMarcus Russell's lack of focus or poor decision making skills or the inability of the rushing attack to build up any steam, the Raiders seem outmatched in just about every aspect of the game. And they'll not get a break facing the second ranked defense in the NFL this Sunday.

Pick: Philadelphia

Buffalo (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2): Buffalo, on offense hasn't done much over the past three weeks. They have scored just 20 points over that time, and in his last three games, Terrell Owens has only seven catches for 104 yards. That's not the output Buffalo thought they were paying for and this Jets defense isn't the squad the Bills need to face this week to get back on track.

The Jets defense was picked apart last week by the Miami Wildcat offense. The Bills won't throw that kind of "gimmicky" approach at New York and Rex Ryan's defense should look like its old self this week. On offense, Mark Sanchez found that he really liked the addition of Braylon Edwards -- hitting the new receiver five times for 64 yards and a touchdown.

Pick: New York

Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2): It seems a shame that Kerry Collins is now in the beginning of a quarterback controversy. Collins is still the man, but Vince Young should start seeing more playing time and it won't be long before everyone is crying for a regime change if the Titans cannot right the ship.

No quarterback controversy in New England but there are some troubles with Tom Brady. His accuracy is down this season as he's fighting back from his knee injury. Fortunately for him, the Patriots welcome the AFC's worst pass defense into town and it looks like Wes Welker may be as healthy as he's been in weeks.

Pick: New England

SNF

Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1): The Bears still remember the sting of Matt Ryan's last second 26-yard pass to Michael Jenkins last season to set up a Jason Elam field goal and vault Atlanta to a 22-20 victory. They've retooled with Jay Cutler at the helm, and he's going to love connecting with Johnny Knox as they find ways to pick apart Atlanta's weak secondary.

The Falcons have weapons galore on the offense as well, and they face a not-so-fantastic secondary too. At home the Falcons are very good and with Ryan having options like Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Jenkins their could be a lot of points put up on Sunday night.

Pick: Atlanta

MNF

Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2): Every football prognosticator on the planet basically handed the Chargers the AFC West crown in the preseason. That doesn't sit so well in Denver now as they are 5-0 and looking to thump a Chargers team that has won five of the last six meetings. After the miserable start to Brandon Marshall's season, he's turned it all around and has four touchdowns in his last three games. The Broncos also got good news this week as Correll Buckhalter will be back to help out, albeit not in a starting role.

The defensive line for San Diego has struggled this year but they appear healthy and ready to put pressure on Kyle Orton. That's good news as the Chargers only have six sacks in their four games this season (if you'll remember they had six sacks in one game last year). Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will have to find ways to continue their early season success against a top pass defense for the Chargers to win on Monday night.

Pick: Denver

The Once-Over: Week 6 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 6 NFL Picks: Giants-Saints Monster Not Critical to Either Team

Dave Goldberg — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Giants, Saints, NFL Predictions

And so we bring you this week's "Game of the Century.'' The unbeaten Giants at the unbeaten Saints, with nearly the hype of the Game of the Century two weeks ago, when Brett Favre dissected his former team.

Yes, it's an interesting matchup. Yes, it will get nice ratings for Fox. Although it's an early game rather than a late-afternoon start or a prime-timer, as it might have been if the NFL had realized the Saints would be as good as they are. And yes, the hype includes Jeremy Shockey's first game against the team he whined his way of off and Eli Manning's return to his hometown for his first game ever at the Superdome.

But remember that the loser will be either 5-1 (Giants) or 4-1 and still in command of their division _ the Giants' wins over the Redskins and Cowboys are more important in the long run that the result against New Orleans.

The Saints are favored by three, which means the oddsmakers thinks the teams are even -- the Giants would be favored by three if the game was in the Meadowlands.

This game also demonstrates the silliness of the early-season rankings on offense and defense. Especially this early in the season.

The Giants are ranked first on defense and first against the pass, allowing only 104.6 yards passing per game. The Saints, who were 23rd last season in yards allowed, are sixth this year, a stat said to reflect the hiring of Gregg Williams as the defensive coordinator.

But maybe those stats are phony.

The last three Giants wins are over three terrible teams: Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. The Saints' victims include Detroit and Buffalo.

So this very well could be an offensive game.

Giants at Saints

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Giants		27
New Orleans Saints	- 3	31

Let's go with the "due to lose'' theory, although the Vikings would be more due if this wasn't at the Metrodome.

Ravens at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens		20
Minnesota Vikings	- 3	19

The Titans are due to win. But maybe we just have to accept the fact that they're bad.

Titans at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee TItans		16
New England Patriots	- 9	31

It's still not clear if either team is elite or just OK.

Bears at Falcons

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears		20
Atlanta Falcons	- 3	24

Last year, the Chargers came from three games back with three games to go to win the AFC West. That will be hard this year because the Broncos play defense. If San Diego loses, they're 3 1-2 games down. Broncos due to lose, although I've been saying that for three weeks.

Broncos at Chargers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Denver Broncos		19
San Diego Chargers	- 3	20

Texans at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans		19
Cincinnati Bengals	- 5	21

Eagles at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	- 14	44
Oakland Raiders		7

Chiefs at Redskins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		8
Washington Redskins	- 6 1/2	9

Browns at Steelers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Clevland Browns		20
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 14	28

Panthers at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers	- 3	10
Tampa Bay Bucs		13

Bills at Jets

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills		7
New York Jets	- 10	27

Lions at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		24
Green Bay Packers	- 13	34

Cardinals at Seahawks

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals		20
Seattle Seahawks	- 3	27

Rams at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
St. Louis Rams		10
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 9 1/2	27

LAST WEEK: 7-7 (spread), 9-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 43-33 (spread) 52-24 (straight up)

Week 6 NFL Picks: Giants-Saints Monster Not Critical to Either Team originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 16 Oct 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 5

Michael Katz — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 10:32:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

The NFL FanHouse team is putting its prediction skills to the test with a little friendly survivor pick 'em league. Each week, every competitor will choose one NFL winner, keeping in mind that you can't pick the same team more than once during the year. But it's a dangerous game: Get one wrong, and you're out.

Everyone made it through last week unscathed. Yawn.

This week, more than half our experts put their faith in the Philadelphia Eagles. A Buccaneer upset could do significant damage to the league. Then again, this is Tampa Bay we're talking about. So yeah, see you next week.

Knox Bardeen -- Eagles over Buccaneers. Donovan McNabb is back, the team is well rested, and Tampa Bay is in town. Need I say more?

Bruce Ciskie -- Eagles over Buccaneers. Josh Johnson? Really?

JJ Cooper -- Steelers over Lions. Every week I regret having already picked the Giants because of their favorable matchup.

Nancy Gay -- Eagles over Buccaneers. I like Josh Johnson, but not in this game.Eagles over Buccaneers. Josh Johnson? Really?
-- Bruce Ciskie

David Goldberg -- Vikings over Rams. Still a lot of bad teams to pick against.

Michael Katz -- Cowboys at Chiefs. If the Cowboys win, I'll be happy a happy expert. If the Cowboys lose, I'll be a happy person.

Tom Mantzouranis -- Browns over Bills. The Browns are liberated now, and the Bills secondary is in shreds. I say we see the Browns' offense of 2007 come back for one game only.

Matt Snyder -- Eagles over Buccaneers -- Coming off a bye week, getting back McNabb and Westbrook and facing the hapless Bucs at home is a combination for an easy victory.

Stephanie Stradley -- Eagles over Bucs. It's at home, and this is probably the best gimme game left on the Eagle's schedule. That Bucs teams is unwatchable on both sides of the ball.

Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 5 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sun, 11 Oct 2009 10:32:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Week 5 NFL Picks: Good, Bad Collide

Dave Goldberg — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

This seems to be the weekend of the big spreads: there are four that are double-digits in a league that always boasts about its close games.

The one that best demonstrates the DIS-parity in the NFL this year is the line on the Raiders-Giants game at the Meadowlands -- from 14 1/2 to 17, depending on which Vegas book you look at. It's normally a game that would be off the board because of questions about Eli Manning's sore heel -- when starting QBs are hurt, the guys who take the bets usually want no part of it.

Instead the attitude is "who cares?'' Presumably, the Vegas guys believe the Giants will beat the Raiders easily with David Carr (or even Rhett Bomar, the rookie who quarterbacks -- and plays other positions -- on the practice squad). Although an ESPNews voice, perhaps in an effort to hype his way from the Worldwide Leader's Triple A team to the majors, promoted a spot early Friday morning by saying of the Giants: "Find out why they're panicking and it has nothing to do with their defense.''

Panic? A 4-0 team that's still in good shape, even in the very unlikely event it loses? Maybe a few fans are worried -- fans always worry. But wagerers aren't. There is so much disrespect for the Raiders that the money keeps coming in on the Giants.

Manning's not the only one who's hurt. Linebacker Michael Boley and defensive lineman Chris Canty, two major offseason pickups, are out, as is cornerback Aaron Ross, who's missed the first four games with a hamstring problem. But New York backups are better than Oakland starters -- during the exhibition season, a lot of NFL scouts talked about all the talent on the Giants bench, a tribute to Jerry Reese's drafting.

This is not suggesting the Giants are lock for the Super Bowl. Or even that they are better than Minnesota, New Orleans or Philly.

Simply that they'll beat the Raiders. Maybe with Eli playing until they get up by a few TDs. Maybe with Carr.

Raiders at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Oakland Raiders		10
New York Giants	- 15	31

A line that will have the Denver fans yelling about disrespect. That's not the reason to pick the Patriots. The reason to pick them is that EVERY one of the 4-0 teams in the NFL will lose at some point.

Patriots at Broncos

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New England Patriots	- 3 1/2	24
Denver Broncos		16

Maybe it's just that there's been a run of good teams playing bad teams. Just hope that whoever buys the Rams (Rush Limbaugh?) gives Steve Spagnuolo a few years to find some good players. He's very short of them now.

Vikings at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Minnesota Vikings	- 10	33
St. Louis Rams		13

What this line says is that Cincinnati isn't nearly as good a 3-1 team as the Ravens. I think we know that. And being home means they'll get the calls Ron Winter's crew missed in Foxborough last week.

Bengals at Ravens

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals		10
Baltimore Ravens	- 8 1/2	21

The Titans started 10-0 this season. They may be 0-6 when they take their bye after playing New England next week. That's when Jeff Fisher gives the QB job back to Vince Young.

Colts at Titans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	- 3 1/2	31
Tennessee Titans		20

The Jets' trade for Braylon Edwards took away attention from the woofing between Rex Ryan and the Dolphins.

Upset.

Jets at Dolphins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New York Jets	- 1 1/2	15
Miami Dolphins		16

Steelers at Lions

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 10 1/2	24
Detroit Lions		17

Cowboys at Chiefs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys	- 8	27
Kansas City Chiefs		11

Redskins at Panthers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		18
Carolina Panthers	- 3 1/2	19

Buccaneers at Eagles

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tampa Bay Bucs		13
Philadelphia Eagles	- 14 1/2	38

Browns at Bills

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cleveland Browns		9
Buffalo Bills	- 6	10

Falcons at 49ers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons		16
San Francisco 49ers	- 2 1/2	20

Texans at Cardinals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans		27
Arizona Cardinals	- 5 1/2	31

Jaguars at Seahawks

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars	No Line	20
Seattle Seahawks		17

LAST WEEK: 7-7 (spread), 12-2 (straight up)

SEASON: 36-26 (spread) 43-19 (straight up)

Week 5 NFL Picks: Good, Bad Collide originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 4

Michael Katz — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Predictions

More Coverage: Pool Advice

Knox Bardeen -- Bears over Lions - Asking the Lions to win two weeks in a row after such a long losing streak seems silly to me. Especially when you're asking them to travel into hostile territory to do so.

Bruce Ciskie -- Vikings over Packers. Everything else so far has gone the way of the Silver Fox, why not this?

JJ Cooper -- 49ers over Rams. Wish I could pick the Giants but I've already used them up, so we'll count on the struggles of the Rams.

Nancy Gay -- Giants over Chiefs. Mark me down for Giants!
49ers over Rams. I don't remember why. Typically I pick a home team, non-divisional matchup against a sorry opponent. So that's probably the reason.
-- Stephanie Stradley
David Goldberg -- Giants over Chiefs. Without really looking.

Michael Katz -- Giants over Chiefs. The Chiefs could be experiencing separation anxiety with Tyler Thigpen now in Miami. Not to mention they are a bad football team.

Tom Mantzouranis -- Texans over Raiders. Because they brought back a really vital piece of the offense last week in Kevin Walter, and Oakland is falling apart at the seams (isn't that always the case?). Plus, I don't want Stephanie to cry.

Matt Snyder -- Bears over Lions. You could say it's a homer pick, but I really don't think so. Coming home off a game where they won but didn't play well, and the Lions are due for a let down after their victory.

Stephanie Stradley -- 49ers over Rams. I don't remember why. Typically I pick a home team, non-divisional matchup against a sorry opponent. So that's probably the reason.

Survivor: FanHouse Island, Week 4 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sun, 04 Oct 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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