NFL FanHouse

Suicide Pool Solution: Week 4

Brett Pollakoff — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: 49ers, Chicago Bears, Colts, NFL Gambling

Each week, FanHouse takes a deeper look at the obvious -- and not so obvious -- options for your NFL suicide pool. Standard rules apply: pick one team to win straight up (no point spreads), and each team may only be used once.

If you were alive in your pool heading into Week 3, then it's pretty much a given that you're alive as we get ready for Week 4. With no major surprises, and with the obvious pick in the Ravens cruising to an easy blowout victory, even the most inexperienced of players couldn't help but advance.

While there might not be one team that sticks out as the clear-cut, obvious choice this week, a few games should provide the opportunity to make it safely to Week 5. Let's take a look.

The Colts are hosting the Seahawks, and this would appear as good a place as any to go with your pick this week. Seattle comes into this one with Seneca Wallace at quarterback, who has virtually no chance of matching the production from his counterpart on the other team, Peyton Manning.

Manning has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his team's first three games, and has seven touchdowns to just two interceptions on the year. The only shot that Seattle has is to try to play keep away from the Colts, like the Dolphins did somewhat successfully two weeks ago. But even then, Manning got hot when he finally did get his chances, and Indy still came away with the win.

Yes, the Colts appear to be a solid choice this week. But while they're unlikely to face a weaker team at home all season, a quick look at the weeks ahead shows that you may want to save them -- possibly for Week 7.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but the Colts will face the Rams in St. Louis that week. And while I usually advise against taking road teams unless absolutely necessary, the Week 7 schedule doesn't feature a single game with a dominant team playing a weak one at home. Most of the teams you'd look at that week are on the road, and with the Rams being among the worst teams in the league, along with the Colts coming off their bye week, I'd rather try to keep Indy in my back pocket, just in case.

Of course, you would have to make it that far to do that. Which means you'd have to find someone else to go with this week. No problem: we have options. One of which is the 49ers hosting the aforementioned Rams.

San Francisco really outplayed the Vikings -- on the road -- for most of the game last week. They lost on a last-second touchdown pass, which surely must have stung. But the Niners have looked solid so far, and even with Frank Gore out of this one with an ankle injury, fantasy football players know from the preseason that Glen Coffee should be a more-than-capable backup.

If you're leery of the 49ers without Gore, how about the Texans hosting the Raiders? Houston has been really up and down, and to be honest, an embarrassment on defense against the run. But despite Jamarcus Russell having his career game against the Texans last season, he's looked absolutely abysmal this year. When you add in the fact that the Raiders have just the 20th ranked rushing offense, I'm not really worried about taking the Texans to bounce back here.

Speaking of bad teams on the road, Tampa Bay is in Washington to face the Redskins. You might, might be able to skate by with the 'Skins this week, but have fun sweating out four quarters of atrocious football in order to get there. Just ask anyone who rode Washington to a Week 2 win, as they barely beat the Rams, 9-7.

Our final option is the Bears hosting the Lions. Detroit did break their 19-game losing streak with a home victory over the Redskins last week, but making it two in a row on the road in Chicago is asking a lot. Sure, the Bears struggled in Seattle last week, and as one astute observer pointed out, they "beat Pittsburgh and Seattle ONLY because of missed field goals of 43, 38, 34 and 43 yards." But they should certainly be able get it done against Detroit at home this week ... shouldn't they?

So to recap, the Colts look like the best option. But if you can talk yourself into liking any of the other games enough, Indy might be worth saving for a tougher week down the road, and one that has certainly appears to have fewer available options.

Good luck this week.

Suicide Pool Solution: Week 4 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sun, 04 Oct 2009 12:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Suicide Pool Solution: Week 3

Brett Pollakoff — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:45:00 EST

Filed under: Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Panthers, Ravens, Texans, NFL Gambling

Each week, FanHouse takes a deeper look at the obvious -- and not so obvious -- options for your NFL suicide pool. Standard rules apply: pick one team to win straight up (no point spreads), and each team may only be used once.

If you were fortunate enough to stay away from the Packers and Titans last week, the good news is that you're still alive. The bad news is that you were probably forced to suffer through a shaky first half with the Vikings, or an entire game of misery while rooting in the Redskins.

Thankfully, things look to be a lot easier in Week 3.

With teams like the Ravens, Giants, and Packers all playing against the league's bottom feeders, most should be able to get by unscathed this week. But which of these seemingly lopsided matchups will give you the best chance to win in the weeks to come? Let's take a closer look.

The Ravens will undoubtedly be the majority play this week, and it's tough to find a reason not to take them. After two games, Baltimore has looked like one of the top teams in the league, showing flashes of dominance on both sides of the ball. They're hosting a Cleveland Browns team that has managed just one offensive touchdown over the first two games of the season, and it came two weeks ago.

The Browns managed just six points during their 27-6 shellacking in Denver, while allowing their quarterback to get sacked four times in the second half by the same player -- the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil. Ever heard of the word adjustment, Mr. Mangenius?

When you combine Baltimore's more complete attack with Cleveland's ineptitude, the Ravens are as close as you get to a sure thing in these contests.

But does that mean you take them this week?

If you're just into playing this game week-to-week, then yes, going with Baltimore should take you safely into Week 4. But if you're in it for the long haul, you need to look at the other reasonable options -- along with the rest of the Ravens' schedule -- before making that all-important selection.

The Giants are in Tampa Bay, and the Packers are in St. Louis, and both road favorites should take care of business against two of the worst teams in the league. A good rule to follow in these things, however, is to stay away from picking road teams unless it's absolutely necessary. Let's face it, if a huge underdog is going to rise up and take down a heavy favorite, it's more likely to happen at home than on the road.

The Rams were feisty in Washington last week, and the Bucs showed some fight in Buffalo, after falling behind 17-0 early. With much stronger options on the board, going with a road team this week is an unnecessary risk, with the only upside being the fact that you would get to save the Ravens to use down the road.

But a quick look at Baltimore's schedule shows that they really don't have any easy games at home until Week 14, when they'll host the Detroit Lions. And who knows if you'll even still be around by then, if you choose to go with road favorites when there's an easy pick on the board like the Ravens?

A couple of other options worth mentioning if you're hell-bent on not taking Baltimore include the Cowboys hosting the Panthers, and the Texans hosting the Jaguars.

Jake Delhomme only threw one pick last week -- you know, as opposed to the nine he threw in his previous two games -- and Carolina remained a single score away from Atlanta for most of the game. The Panthers might be slowly righting the ship.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys lead the league in team rushing, but they also gave up 33 points and over 300 yards passing in their loss to the Giants, without getting even a single sack on Eli Manning.

Dallas might win, but all I'm saying is, there are red flags if you're considering this one.

Houston looked great in Tennessee last week, winning a physical shootout and sending the Titans to an 0-2 start. They host a Jaguars team that kept it close against the Colts in Week 1, before they got crushed by the Cardinals in Week 2.

If you must shy away from the Ravens, the Texans appear to be a solid choice. Jacksonville had no answer for Kurt Warner's passing attack. so just imagine what Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to be able to do. And the last time these two teams met in Houston (in December of last year), the Texans won by double digits. And if you need one more stat to convince you, chew on this: Houston is 7-2 when wearing their all red uniforms, which they'll be doing this Sunday.

So, yeah. After all of this analysis, I'm afraid that the Ravens are probably the best selection in Week 3. But hey, when you're in the early stages of what you hope will be a season-long contest, it never hurts to take a closer look at all of your available options.

Good luck this week.

Suicide Pool Solution: Week 3 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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For Delaware, NFL Gambling a Sure Bet

David Steele — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Gambling, FanHouse Exclusive

WILMINGTON, Del. -- There are plenty of reasons why Sunday afternoon, on the second weekend of the NFL season and with no thoroughbred racing scheduled, license plates from at least seven states and the District of Columbia were spotted in the parking lot of Delaware Park. Simulcasting was still going on, and the slots floor was still busy -- and, besides, people might just be slow in updating their car registrations.

But that wouldn't explain, for example, why one cream-colored Cadillac with Florida plates sported four Miami Dolphins flags. Or why many of the cars were expelling, or re-admitting, customers wearing NFL jerseys, caps, T-shirts and other paraphernalia, and carrying long white, beige or yellow strips of paper. Or, most transparently, why the infield videoboard was showing one of the network pre-game shows.

Football may not have taken over the biggest of the three tracks in the state now taking NFL bets, but it has staked its claim and apparently won't let go any time soon, at least without the interruption of the courts.

"It's awesome,'' exclaimed Michael Galvin of Wilmington, an exercise rider at the track who originally hails from Tampa -- thus, the Derrick Brooks Buccaneers jersey he wore. Delaware Park's meet ends in late October, and after two weeks of betting NFL games at the new sports book at his current home, Galvin said he'll miss doing it when he shifts his work to Tampa Bay Downs for the winter.

"Oh yeah, I'd love it,'' he said of the idea of his home state taking NFL bets like Delaware now does.

Of course, Delaware and Nevada still stand alone in taking sports bets of any kind, and Delaware is still only the NFL and, thanks to a federal court ruling late last month, only in parlays of three or more games. But an appeal by the state to the full 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals last week leaves the door open for Delaware to be granted its wish: to handle single-game betting, something the NFL, as well as all the other major pro leagues and the NCAA, are fighting diligently.

Ultimately, said Delaware Park Chief Operating Officer Andrew Gentile, if full betting is allowed on all sports, including all variations, "the potential, in my opinion, is unlimited. People have come up to me and said, 'If you had over-under, I'd be in here.' "

"We really like what Delaware's doing here, and we're glad they're doing it."
-- Larry LambertEven with those relative handicaps, the traffic into the track was steady in the hour before the 1 PM ET kickoff, with bettors coming from all the nearby states: Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey and New York, as well as areas within a few hours' driving distance, like Washington, D.C. and Virginia. Longer drives were suggested by plates from Massachusetts, North Carolina and, again, Florida.

The games were shown on two of the three levels of the clubhouse at Delaware Park, and both floors were crowded. Capacity is between 5,000 and 6,000, Gentile said, and while he did not have official attendance from the first week available, he believed that the crowd coming in to bet, and also to stay and watch, was larger Sunday. He estimated that the top floor, which faces the track and the grandstand -- featuring three video walls with a total of 32 wide screens -- had between double and triple last week's crowd. On the main floor downstairs, whose 81 screens run the length of the wall and were more than half devoted to NFL games with the rest on racing simulcasts, the seating areas were more full than before.

The football bettors stuck out like logo-draped sore thumbs: often half the age of the horse bettors, if not more, and much more raucous -- especially in reaction to the Eagles-Saints game. The effect was that of a huge sports bar, complete with beer promoters circulating about with contests and prizes, just with machines and bet-takers around the edges.

"We really like what Delaware's doing here, and we're glad they're doing it,'' said Larry Lambert of nearby Claymont, who was there with friend Rich Hoff playing for the first time at the track. "It's 15 minutes away; we can come here and stick around, or we can make our bets and head back -- what's not to like?''

Jamal Whittlesey of New Castle, less than 10 minutes from Delaware Park, was betting in a sports book for the first time, sticking to the $2 minimum: "I just wanted to see what my odds were of winning here, testing my skills ... So far, so good. I'll be coming back through here. It's right here.''

Still, others with convenient commutes were doing U-turns in the sports book -- driving in, placing their bets, and heading home or to wherever they can watch a game or games, including many who headed north to the Eagles' home opener.

"It's about an hour's drive, on a pleasant day, so why not?'' said Gordon Poland, who came in from the suburbs north of Baltimore with a friend, David Firestone, who wore a Ray Lewis Ravens' jersey. Poland and Firestone both figured that the restriction to only parlays would hold the crowds down -- but also wondered aloud when or if Maryland would move in this direction. Delaware has drawn gamblers from that state for years, solely for slots, as Maryland voters only approved them last November and they have yet to be put in place there.

Gentile believes that as fans become more familiar with how things work, more will stay for the full Sunday slate of games and, of course, spend more money at the track and, possibly, at the slots and horse-betting windows. He tossed out the possibility of giving the football bettors $2 vouchers for the races, to help bring the average age of the racing audience down from 50-plus.

The traffic between Thursday, when the cards arrive at the track, and kickoff of Sunday's games will also settle into a familiar pattern, Gentile expects. Noontime on Thursdays and Fridays are showing a lunchtime business-type crowd, he said ("You typically don't see suits and ties in here''), and Saturdays are bringing couples, with the men heading to do their NFL bets and the women hitting the slots.

The state announced that more than 145,000 bets were placed in Week 1, generating $257,870. State officials were pleased, considering that the decision of the three-judge panel of the federal circuit court limiting bets to parlays came down less than three weeks before the regular season began.

Week 2 numbers will not be known until the end of this week. But the track and its new attraction definitely has earned repeat customers. Galvin, the exercise rider with the Bucs jersey, promised to be back every Sunday while racing is still in session there.

"I mean, look at this,'' he said, tilting his head toward the long wall of screens flashing with NFL action. "This is a blast.''

(Editor's Note: The above photo was taken at Dover Downs casino in Dover, Del., not at Delaware Park in Wilmington, Del.)

For Delaware, NFL Gambling a Sure Bet originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Mon, 21 Sep 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Mirage Casino Sues LaMont Jordan for $20K Gambling Debt

Ryan Wilson — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:25:00 EST

Filed under: Broncos, NFL Gambling, NFL Rumors

Here's to hoping LaMont Jordan makes the Denver Broncos roster. New head coach Josh McDaniels brought in just about every available free agent running back this offseason to compete for a handful of spots.

And in light of the recent news that the Mirage hotel and casino in Las Vegas has sued Jordan over allegations that he owes them $20,000 in gambling debts, well, he could probably use the steady paycheck.

Via the Las Vegas Sun:

The suit, filed in Clark County District Court, says that on June 26 and June 27, 2008, Jordan signed six check-like negotiable gaming debt instruments. They were for $1,000, $4,000, $6,000 and three more for $3,000 apiece.

But when The Mirage presented them to Bank of America, three were returned marked "unable to locate account" and three more were returned marked "not sufficient funds."

Who knows, maybe this is all a big misunderstanding. For the sake of argument, let's say it's not. Here's my question: do athletes ever get away with this? I mean, has a professional athlete ever outsmarted any large corporation when large sums of money are involved (Alex Smith's contract with the 49ers doesn't count)? Nothing comes to mind. In which case it makes me wonder why it keeps happening.

Okay, not really. I know why -- people are stupid -- but despite my cracks about Jordan needing the dough, he signed a five-year, $27.5 million deal with the Raiders in 2005. (And knowing Oakland, the whole thing was guaranteed.) Presumably, he can spare 20 grand.

Silver lining: Jordan's better off than former Broncos running backs Travis Henry and Maurice Clarett. Gambling debts > cocaine trafficking > holding up a bar followed by a high-speed chase. It's all relative.

Mirage Casino Sues LaMont Jordan for $20K Gambling Debt originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 07 Aug 2009 11:25:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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NFL Owners Could Expand 'Rooney Rule' to Front Office Hirings

Dan Graziano — Wed, 20 May 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Fans, NFL Gambling, NFL Free Agency

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- One of the issues NFL owners discussed before wrapping up their meetings this morning was expanding the so-called "Rooney Rule" to the hiring of general managers as well as coaches. The rule, established in 2003, currently requires teams to interview at least one minority candidate for vacant head coaching positions or face a fine. The change would apply the same rule to vacant GM positions.

Commissioner Roger Goodell said the change could be implemented "almost immediately," though he first needs to speak with Steelers owner Dan Rooney, the father of the rule and the chair of the league's diversity committee. Rooney did not attend these meetings because he is currently undergoing the training required of him to become U.S. ambassador to Ireland per an appointment by President Barack Obama.
The Rooney Rule is generally credited in improving the NFL's record of minority hiring in its coaching ranks, and the hope is that it would have the same effect if applied to front-office positions.

Other topics addressed in this morning's session:

-Owners reviewed a report on the possible expansion of the regular season from 16 games to 17 or 18 but did not vote on it. Goodell has said he will present the plans to the players' union next month for their input, and it's possible this could be voted on when the owners meet again in Boston in the fall.

-There was discussion (but again no vote) on the idea of altering the league's tampering rules to allow teams to talk to free agents before the free agency period begins. But Goodell indicated that there was some resistance to a rule change.

"Quite honestly, there was some sentiment in the room that we have a rule and let's follow the rule," Goodell said.

-The NFL is in discussions with NBC about extending its current broadcast rights deal with that network. Tuesday they announced two-year extensions of their current deals with Fox and CBS.

-The league has decided to allow the use of its logos on state lottery scratch-off games, with the stipulation that they not be used in conjunction with any betting on the outcomes of its games. Goodell called that distinction "critical," especially in light of Delaware's recent decision to allow sports betting.

NFL Owners Could Expand 'Rooney Rule' to Front Office Hirings originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Wed, 20 May 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Report: Gisele Bundchen Won $1 Million on Soccer Matches

Will Brinson — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:45:00 EST

Filed under: Patriots, NFL Fans, NFL Gambling, NFL Rumors

Gisele Bundchen, if the reports are accurate, may have somehow become even more attractive than previously thought. Provided, of course, that you're a degenerate gambler like me. You see, Bundchen, according to the stories we're hearing, evidently likes to put large sums of money on soccer games.

Specifically, $1 million-large, which is the rumored amount that she's won so far this year, betting on soccer matches.

According to the Metropolitan Post, Gisele has "complete faith" in Jose Mourinho and started placing her weekly bets last December.

This news deserves to be lugged along with a giant grain of salt, of course (although I got it via Jimmy Traina at Hot Clicks, a reputable source if there ever was one) but I suppose it's not that shocking.

Presumably, Bundchen is getting some advice on what to bet on, the same way the charming young lady in my office got advice when it came to her winning our office March Madness pool. At least that's what I like to believe, anyway, since, you know, I didn't win. Oh, right. And because I've lost as much as Gisele has reportedly won in my short and esteemed gambling career.

Report: Gisele Bundchen Won $1 Million on Soccer Matches originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Odds on Terrell Owens' Next Team: Redskins, Raiders Early Favorites

Will Brinson — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:10:00 EST

Filed under: Buccaneers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Jets, Patriots, Raiders, Redskins, NFL Gambling, NFL Media Watch, NFL Free Agency, NFL Rumors

Our friends at BoDog are always working hard to accommodate our ~~favorite addictions~~ gambling curiosities. So, naturally, when the news dropped that the Dallas Cowboys had released Terrell Owens, I checked the site a few times to see if any odds had emerged on where T.O. would end up.

They didn't show up last night, but they're certainly there today. And, frankly, they're not particularly shocking. At least, not if you know anything about Dan Snyder and Al Davis.

Oakland Raiders 7/2
Washington Redskins 4/1
New York Jets 13/2
Tampa Bay Bucs 11/2
New England Pats 13/2
Tennessee Titans 13/2
Miami Dolphins 8/1
Philadelphia Eagles 50/1

Now, bear in the mind "field" is also 9/4, so BoDog's left plenty of room for error here in the event that Owens signs with someone not listed.

The list really does three things. One, it shows who's ridiculous enough to ink Owens, regardless of what the aftershock would be (Synder, Davis). Secondly, it's a joke. And a funny one -- Owens going back to Philly? I think not. Finally, it's a good indication of who exactly might consider themselves desperate enough to utilize Owens in order to increases their chances of winning next year.

I know we talk all the time about how awful Owens is and what a locker room cancer he becomes whenever he stays somewhere too long, but why wouldn't someone ink him to a one year contract with incentives? Or, alternately, just put him in New England next to Randy Moss so we won't have to hear any media coverage about the Pats next season.

Odds on Terrell Owens' Next Team: Redskins, Raiders Early Favorites originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Pats Enter '09 as Super Bowl Favorites

Michael David Smith — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 07:18:00 EST

Filed under: Patriots, NFL Gambling, Super Bowl

With, presumably, a healthy Tom Brady at quarterback, the New England Patriots will head into the 2009 NFL season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Bodog has released its odds for Super Bowl XLIV, and the Patriots check in as the favorites. Here are Bodog's top 10:

Odds to win the 2010 Super Bowl XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

I'm a little surprised to see that the Cowboys are the favorites to represent the NFC, and I'm very surprised that the Cardinals, at 30-1, aren't even close. But overall, that looks about right.

And the bottom of the list looks about right, too. The teams with the longest odds are the Lions and Chiefs, both at 100-1.

Super Bowl History

Super Bowl I
Green Bay Packers 35, Kansas City Chiefs 10

Focus on Sport / Getty Images

Super Bowl II
Green Bay Packers 33, Oakland Raiders 14

Focus On Sport / Getty Images

Super Bowl III
New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7

Super Bowl IV
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Minnesota Vikings 7

Darryl Norenberg, NFL

Super Bowl V
Baltimore Colts 16, Dallas Cowboys 13

Tony Tomsic, Getty Image

Super Bowl VI
Dallas Cowboys 24, Miami Dolphins 3

Vernon Biever, NFL

Super Bowl VII
Miami Dolphins 14, Washington Redskins 7

Super Bowl VIII
Miami Dolphins 24, Minnesota Vikings 7

Rod Hanna, NFL

Super Bowl IX
Pittsburgh Steelers 16, Minnesota Vikings 6

Focus on Sport / Getty Images

Super Bowl X
Pittsburgh Steelers 21, Dallas Cowboys 17

Pats Enter '09 as Super Bowl Favorites originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Tue, 03 Feb 2009 07:18:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Step Five, God Is Good

Will Brinson — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 19:00:00 EST

Filed under: Arizona Cardinals, Giants, Steelers, NFL Fans, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl

Yes, Eli, God is 3:1. Now thank him, please.

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

Remember when I said we'd have fun prop bet stories? I wasn't lying. But I thought it would behoove everyone if I started the storytelling off first. Last year, I bet on the Patriots and the over. I lost. Badly. (I was debating on the Giants money line for a while, OF COURSE, but you know how that goes. Stupidity and cold feet and whatnot.) But I did win most of my prop bets. Except for one.

That's because I bet on "God." Yes, that's right. The theoretical higher power. And I got him at 3:1 no less. All the Super Bowl MVP had to do was stand up on the podium and say "I'd like to thank God for this victory" first. Didn't seem like that tough of a bet. But wouldn't you know, Eli Manning won, and since his family has obviously struck a deal with Beelzebub, I got screwed out of 30 bucks.

But you know what? I'm not angry. I got a chance to bet on God getting 3:1 odds, man. That doesn't happen often.

And this year, it's not even remotely close.

He's your standard 1:1 favorite, courtesy of BoDogLife.com.

Who will the MVP of the game thank first?
God 1:1
Teammates 2:1
Family 4:1
Coach 7:1
Doesn't thank anyone 3:1

Now obviously, God's kicking it at 1:1 because Kurt Warner drops his name more times at a press conference than my mom (a preacher) does on Sunday. Not only that, but you might also remember that Ben Roethlisberger mentioned him first after the Steelers won the AFC Championship game (which seemed, yes, odd; almost like a jab at Warner). And given the propensity of quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVP awards, it seems pretty likely that you'll hear the Lord's name first. Still doesn't make 1:1 a bad bet though.

Next up, let's make fun of Matt Millen. That doesn't happen enough.

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win the Super Bowl?
Yes -270
No +210

WOW. Now, obviously this means that Millen will be picking the Steelers, or at least everyone thinks he will (he probably will do just that). But there are only four or five hard and fast rules in life. One is "don't rub another man's rhubarb." And while I don't have space to give you all of them, I will key you into the fact that "If you are given the chance to win DOUBLE your money by betting against Matt Millen, you take that chance. Every time." is definitely one of them. Look -- you don't even have to pick a team. Millen will handle the jinx for you. MAX. BET.

In fact, the best possible situation allows you to parlay the two above bets, presume divine intervention (the Big Guy won't let Millen win and not be thanked at the same time) will come raining down in the form of Warner touchdowns, and roll around in your electronic money.

The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Step Five, God Is Good originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 23 Jan 2009 19:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Step Four, Back in Time

Will Brinson — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Arizona Cardinals, Steelers, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs, NFL Media Watch, Super Bowl

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

For the remaining few days until the Super Bowl, I'm going to be gathering prop bet stories from around the blogosphere (and you, if you're interested, so e-mail me if you've got a funny one).

Now that we've covered that, obvious apologies are due for the tardiness of this (because we're actually on Day Five -- coming soon also). But you know how life as a blogger is -- wake up, look at your pants lying crumpled on the bed, laugh at them, play some Sega Genesis, laugh at your pants again, get in your desk chair and start cranking out the snark. Tough.

But since I couldn't jump into the Delorean and transport myself back to yesterday, de-pants myself and get this entry in on time, I figured we could do the next best thing: gamble on some historical matchups. No, it's not as easy as finding a sports almanac, but it's awesome fun because it's totally confusing and definitely needs to be written down somewhere so you don't forget.

And for Super Bowl XLIII, historical matchups are especially fun because there's so much SB history with the Steelers and ~~the Cardinals~~ Kurt Warner. Speaking of whom ...

Historical Matchup: Total Passing Yards Warner SB XXXIV (415) v. Warner SB XLIII
Kurt Warner SB XXIV -148.5 yards
Kurt Warner SB XLIII +148.5 yards

Or, put simply, do you think that Warner will throw for 266.5 yards against the Steelers this year. That's actually a pretty great line -- 266.5 seems really, really low for Warner, obviously, but this Steelers team is decent at defense. Personally, I'll take the free 150 yards and just hope that he can get to 275. An early Steelers lead is still good, and do you really want to watch Warner light Pittsburgh up knowing you're throwing money down a toilet? Of course not.

You can also make this bet against Warner's performance in Super Bowl XXXVI, but you only get spotted 99.5 yards because he threw for 365 in that game. And actually, the second one is the way to go, since you get a free yard, apparently (if my math is right; it could very well be horribly wrong).

Ben Roethlisberger gets the same treatment for this game, although his numbers are a little different. You may recall that this "game manager" didn't exactly light up the Seahawks when the Steelers won.

Historical Matchup: Total Passing Yards R-Berger SB XL (123) v. R-Berger SB XLIII
Ben Roethlisberger SB XL +96.5 yards
Ben Roethlisberger SB XLIII -96.5 yards

So, again math majors, what we're looking at is a total of 219.5 yards for "Ben" in the Super Bowl. I like the respect that the Cardinals' pass defense is getting here, but frankly, there's no way I can take the under on a 220-yard passing game. Willie Parker is playing, sure, and Hines Ward is going to be testy, but one long bomb to Santonio Holmes and you don't stand a chance. I think R-Berger gets at least one.

So, there you have it -- a quick lesson in historical viewpoint when it comes to gambling. And remember, whenever you time travel, always take the over.

The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Step Four, Back in Time originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 23 Jan 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day Three, Coin Flips

Will Brinson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:00:00 EST

Filed under: Arizona Cardinals, Steelers, NFL Gambling, Super Bowl

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

Now that we've finally waded through the muck (read: the two freaking days when books aren't putting up the prop bets because they're scared of us taking their money), we can get down to business.

And the first business of every Super Bowl betting guide -- the spread and over/under aside -- is the coin flip. Always, always, always take heads. There's nothing really more to say. Just take heads. Probability tells us that there's at least a 50/50 chance of this winning. And those are pretty good odds, my friends.Now, onto some other interesting "50/50" bets. First off, I freaking love the bet this Sportsbook is offering: "Will both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal?" And, I, astutely, say, hells to the yes. We're talking about, again, two defenses that are better than people think. Add in Jeff Reed -- bleached blond hair or not -- and Neil Rackers, and it seems pretty obvious that we should get at least one chip shot-plus from each team. And the real bonus? Yes it's +145. It's called free money, folks, and that's why they pay me to write at you.

And finally, a totally random one: jersey number. Yes, jersey number, as in: first touchdown scored. It's an over/under and it's set at 38.5. Which means that anyone in the secondary or anyone in the wide receiver corps is going to win for you, if you take the over. Considering the Steelers stuff the run, and that Willie Parker isn't exactly fresh, I'll take my chances. Oh, also, Larry Fitzgerald. (And yes, I'm aware that Santonio Holmes could destroy this easily.)

There you have it though: three quick coin flips that are going to make you money. We'll be here all week, kids.

The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day Three, Coin Flips originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day Two, The Audible

Will Brinson — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Gambling, NFL Media Watch, Super Bowl

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

I know what you're thinking -- there aren't any prop bets hanging out there right now, are there? You're right. It's annoying, especially when you're trying to build a 13 step ~~recovery~~ dereliction program for gambler. In order to find out why the hell this was happening (WHERE. ARE. MY. PROP. BETS???) I emailed the incredibly astute R.J. Bell of Pregame.com to find out what the deal-io was. His answer?

But, like every good ~~addict~~ gambler, I know how to handle things when there's not betting readily available.

Keep in mind there's a direct correlation between bookie confidence and betting limits. Greater confidence equals higher limits. Many sportsbooks will take over $100,000 on a Super Bowl side bet (they trust their odds), but those same bookies might max a prop bet at $500 (they don't trust their odds). The bookies lack of confidence is a clear sign of opportunity for the bettor. Typically betting action far before an event is limited to mostly professionals; amateurs bet much closer to game time. The bookies are in no hurry to rush up low-confidence props for professionals to bet into. When the squares are ready to bet, the props will be available in full force.

A. Ha. There we go -- Vegas is just scared of us, kind folks. So, we clearly need to remedy this (and fast, or I'm completely out of a premise for this piece). The obvious solution? Some would say "get drunk." I say "make up your own bets."

There's a time honored classic among my friends in Raleigh when it comes to watching the Super Bowl, and I'll explain how it can make you some quick cash, in a simplistic fashion. First of all, at the end of the first quarter, target the drunkest person at your Super Bowl party. Approach them and start discussing the halftime show.

Steer your conversation towards what songs you think Bruce Springsteen will play; "Glory Days", "Born to Run", and "Born in the U.S.A.", by the way, are stone cold locks. No question about it; if you can get your target to go against any of these three (or all three together), you take the cash and run.

My bets for the other two (or three, according to Wired -- aside: I forget Springsteen wrote "Blinded by the Light", which is also a nice party bet for free cash)are "Dancing in the Dark" and "The Rising" mixed somewhere in between. If he sneaks a sixth in, it'll be "Thunder Road". Simply convince your drunk buddy to bet on something else or a song that's no really the Boss, and roll around in his cash throughout the second half.

The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day Two, The Audible originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day One, The Basics

Will Brinson — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:30:00 EST

Filed under: Arizona Cardinals, Steelers, NFL Fans, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

Welcome to day one of the Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program to Gambling Greatness. Catchy title, no? Well, fine -- if not catchy, at least it's short. Anyway, the point being is that as the countdown to the Super Bowl begins, you, the reader, the degenerate, the gambler, need to be prepared to lay down some crazy bets once that magic Sunday rolls around. That's why I'm here.

(Note: you may be better served simply betting against me, given recent history, but that's your own prerogative.)

And what better way to start off the gambling than with the two most basic wagers of them all: the point spread, and the over/under. Obviously the point spread refers to Pittsburgh -7, meaning (for the really uninitiated) Vegas thinks the Steelers should beat the Cardinals by a touchdown.

Pittsburgh is a very popular franchise and the Steelers are very good and they beat a better set of teams (supposedly) to make it to Tampa, so this shouldn't be surprising. Still, I think I'll be taking the Arizona Cardinals. They have ~~God~~ Kurt Warner on their side. Tough to argue with that.

As for the over/under or "total" as it's often referred to, Vegas believes both teams will score a total of 47. That, to me, seems a touch high. As RJ Bell of Pregame.com astutely noted, it also means that Vegas thinks the Steelers will win 27-20. I think that O/U is actually going to be close to the end total, but at the same time, we're dealing with two pretty stout defenses.

People like to scoff at the notion that the Cardinals won't be able to stop the Steelers, but that seems a bit far fetched considering that they've effectively shut down three very good offensive teams for all but one quarter since the playoffs started. Don't forget that Ken Wisenhunt is the former offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, so he knows a thing or two about their playbook and personnel.

Given that, and the fact that I think Arizona will do its part to establish some sort of running game, I'm going to take the under. So, there you have it: this is where you should spend your first $2,000 worth of gambling money when it comes to the Super Bowl. Check back tomorrow for more astute gambling advice.

The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Day One, The Basics originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Steelers Favored a Touchdown Over Cardinals as Early Vegas Lines Open

Will Brinson — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 00:15:00 EST

Filed under: Arizona Cardinals, Steelers, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs, NFL Media Watch, Super Bowl

Las Vegas rarely wastes any time setting lines for major sporting events and considering the Super Bowl is the very definition of that phrase, it shouldn't be shocking that Vegas has already released the line for the Pittsburgh Steelers - Arizona Cardinals matchup.

What might be shocking is that the Steelers are favored by either 6.5 or 7 points, depending on which sportsbook you ask. Yes, it is a lot, thanks for noticing. However, it shouldn't be that big a surprise, I suppose, considering the total lack of respect that the Cardinals have gotten this year.Oh, and because the Steelers have been considered one of the NFL's best teams all season, while people tended to think the Cardinals were collapsing at the end of the regular season. But also because, apparently, Vegas thinks Pittsburgh's road to Tampa was tougher.

"The AFC has a little more respect as far as the way they play power football," said MGM Mirage Inc. Race and Sports Books Director Jay Rood, who set lines in his books at 7. "They just seem to be the better league at this point."

However, as Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton noted, the Arizona bandwagon has been building steadily over recent weeks with gamblers (because they're perpetual losers, natch.) I would guess that a lot of money will end up on the Cardinals, but because of the Steelers' immense popularity, that line won't move much lower than six or so, depending on the Steelers' injury report.

Steelers Favored a Touchdown Over Cardinals as Early Vegas Lines Open originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Mon, 19 Jan 2009 00:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 8

Will Brinson — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 11:15:00 EST

Filed under: 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Atlanta Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Giants, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Titans, Vikings, NFL Gambling, NFL Media Watch

Just another limp-D 8-6 week. I wonder when I'll finally break through and sniff a double digit win week? Hmm. Maybe this week? Nah. Probably not. The season record now stands at a "creeping-on-a-comeback" 47-53-1 record. And somehow I forgot to post my locks. They will be there this week and indicated by **Guaranteed Loss Team** some sort of thing. Onto the picks.

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
The Falcons are a bizarre story -- I know they're winning but I watched the Panthers beat them and ... well, I just don't think they're as good as their record. I also think the Eagles are better than their record. So I'll take the ridiculous nine points.

Eagles -9

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets (-12.5)
What a stout freaking line that is, and I suppose it's indicative of just how crappy the Chiefs are; the Jets, if you recall, did actually just lose to the Raiders. Which, while embarrassing enough, still isn't as bad as having to start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. This really will be a true test of Herm Edwards' crappiness.

~~Jets -12.5~~ Chiefs +12.5

St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots (-7)
Ummm, did I miss something? Because Jim Haslett is undefeated this season. Oh right. I didn't watch any football Monday night. That's why they're so heavily favored. Still, Haslett.

Rams +7

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Well, that's just not enough. What a slap in the face to the Buffalo Bills ... yoooooooour 2008 AFC Champions*.

Bills -1.5
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
See, the NFL is screwed up right now, in a wonderfully weird and bizarre way. But that's cool. However, it just means that when I get two mediocre teams playing each other and one is favored by a touchdown or more, I'm going to take the underdog. Oh. Maybe I should go back and change that Jets pick.

Raiders +7

Washington Redskins (-7.5) @ Detroit Lions
Did you hear? The Lions' first blackout is upon us, because the sponsors finally gave up and decided not to bail them out. How wonderful. And only a few short weeks after the Matt Millen era finally ends. So, the question is, if the Lions suck and no one watches, do they actually lose? Of course they do.

Redskins -7.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-4)
Remember the last time these teams played? Maybe you don't. But I do. I was live-blogging this piece at Mister Mittens and it was Kurt Warner v. Vinny Testaverde. Also known as "Hell on Earth for Brinson." Anywho, this should still be a good game because we get to find out if the Cards are real ... or something like that. I think both teams here are legit and it should be ... oh hell, you know who I'm taking.

Panthers -4

San Diego Chargers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints
Brees v. Rivers! The matchup of the century! Seriously, this could be an awesome shootout. Particularly if Drew shows up like he did against the Raiders. I am a little concerned about the time change though -- Phil looked like dook walking through the London airport, and I know my schedule gets screwed up when I fly across the country -- I couldn't imagine having to go to London and play football.

Chargers -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
If Tony Romo is out again and it's Brad Johnson v. Jeff Garcia, well, we need to have a military-esque draft and start pulling emergency quarterbacks from college. Actually, Garcia has been quite good. And the Cowboys have been quite bad.

Buccaneers +1.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (-9)
It just occurred to me that the Texans have been favored by nine points or more for the second straight week. That says very bad things about many teams in the NFL. Or at least the Lions and Bengals. I'm personally not buying the Ryan Fitzpatrick hype.

Texans -9

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Seven. That's roughly how many dropped passes we can expect out of Braylon Edwards again this week. Or the number of completions (out of 50 attempts, in all likelihood) we can expect out of Derek Anderson. That doesn't mean I'm not still a sucker.

Browns +7

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
And ... easily the game of the week. Finally, one team -- the Titans excepted -- gets to try and prove that they are legitimately the best team in the league. Personally, I'm a Steelers guy myself, even though I think that the ringless Phil Rivers is the best quarterback out of that class.

Steelers -2.5

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-5)
And ... followed quickly by easily the worst game of the week. At least Mike Singletary gets to inspire in his coaching debut. This could quickly be a low point on the Mike Holmgren Retirement Party Celebration Tour.

49ers -5

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-4)
Peyton Manning has a staph infection (or had) and the Titans are looking to sink the Colts' ship for the season. Their defense is disgusting and the Colts looked embarrassingly bad against the Packers. But I just can't believe that the AFC South is this screwed up.

Colts +4

Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 8 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 11:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 7

Will Brinson — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 09:00:00 EST

Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines is Will Brinson's weekly NFL gambling column at FanHouse. Because everyone loves a loser.

Nothing like a week of mediocrity (8-6) mixed in with a season of, um, worse than mediocrity. And, such a stellar record brings our season total to 39-47-1. Simply. Stunning.

Stunning enough, in fact, that this particular column has been referred to as "Brinson's Bad Picks" (which, in hindsight, is a much cooler name than anything else I've been able to offer).

Tennessee Titans (-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans are the "best" team in the NFL. The Chiefs are one of the worst. Larry Johnson is out. This should be easy.

Titans -9

San Diego Chargers (-1) @ Buffalo Bills
Wow. I'm torn. On one hand, I have tremendous team crush on the Bills. On the other, Philip Rivers is your early season MVP. So, yeah. However, the Chargers are just better and they are favored on the road, so I see no reason to mess with what's worked so well thus far into 2008.

Chargers -1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) @ Cincinnati Bengals
It's unconventional and stupid to take a team favored by 10 on the road. But not as unconventional and stupid as taking the Bengals.

Steelers -10

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (-3)
I'm fairly certain that the last time Miami was favored in any game was roughly 2001. Yes, that may be an approximation. But it doesn't change the fact that it's a difficult situation to bet on. Then I realize the Wildcat offense exists.

Miami -3

Dallas Cowboys (-7) @ St. Louis Rams
Okay, so this line currently has lines through it. I assume that's because of the whole Tony Romo might or might not play business. And while I'm tempted to take the Rams anyway, just because it's the crazy "Oh yeah, I'm a blogger" thing to do, well, um, no.

Cowboys -7

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-3)
I'm a little concerned about a Bears team that can't put away the Falcons, and the fact that their defense spends too much time on the field at this point. Can I take the under? No, huh? Okay, um, then, yeah. Adrian Peterson. Although watching Matt Forte blow up for a single game record against the guy who set it while on my fantasy bench would be fun. And will probably happen.

Bears -3

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Surely you don't think a 27-3 drubbing at the hands of Jeff Garcia is going to stifle my enthusiasm?

Panthers -3

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-10.5)
I suppose that I could argue the Giants will come back "determined" or "angry" after getting embarrassed by Cleveland on Monday. Or I could just point out that San Fran sucks.

Giants -10.5

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (-9.5)
That's a chunk of points. But Orvlasky ran out of his own end zone. There's no way you can bet on him. Also, Andre Johnson is straight back, son.

Texans -9.5

New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland Raiders
Thomas Jones. Making everyone look good since the sixth week of 2008.

Jets -3

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (-7.5)
In hindsight, even I got caught up in the Red Kool-Aid party, taking the Skins at -14. I mean, sure, it's the Rams. But Jim Haslett was coaching. Er, it was 14 points. And I suppose since I've been taking Cleveland every week -- except for when they cover/win -- I might as well roll dice with a touchdown plus here. Plus, Braylon Edwards said it was a new season!

Browns +7.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers (-2)
This could end up being easily the best game of the week. Aaron Rodgers refuses to stop toughing it out, and somehow the Colts -- despite me not mentioning it -- are climbing right back into the "best team in the NFL" realm. No seriously, they are.

Colts +2

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11)
Garcia is quite good, apparently. But not 11 points good. Come on. How does Tampa keep winning?

Seahawks +11

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (-3)
It's absolutely nuts that the Pats are only three point favorites at home on a Monday night at home. Of course ... not as crazy as betting against them!

Broncos +3
Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 7 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 17 Oct 2008 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 6

Will Brinson — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFL Gambling, NFL Media Watch
Well, five weeks in and I finally land my first push. Which is good news (and a little bizarre) I guess, since I still went 5-7-1 for the week. Which brings my astounding season total to 31-41-1. On the bright side, my Tungsten picks are 7-3, so if you've been placing your money ... actually scratch that. If you're wagering on my picks, you're a bigger loser than me.

But, I have been known to occasionally get warm. Streaky business this handicapping. Let's rock.

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
You would think that the Saints could come off Monday night's debacle and piece together a decent game against the frigging Raiders. And I don't want Mantz accusing me of jinxing the Saints this week. Or did I just do that? Crap.

Saints -7

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Peyton Manning is like the Phil Mickelson of football and that should be self explanatory. (Loser turned winner goofball type.) Sage Rosenfels is still working on that transition so maybe Peyton doesn't deserve all the credit. Still, I'm not generally inclined to bet on Joe Flacco over anyone named Manning.

Colts -4

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-6)
Doesn't this feel like a trap game? Cincy's horrible but they've at least been close in a few recent games. Jets favored by less than a touchdown, people teasing Brett Favre all over the place (No, not the "Nice painkiller addiction, wuss!!" type of teasing, you jackass.) And then BAM. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets all up in your bidness.

Bengals +6

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
If I was legitimately throwing large money on every single Panthers game this season, I would be so rich right now. Unfortunately, the only one where I laid any cash was the Vikings game (as far as what's been publicly admitted anyway). But if you stop believing in the Cats now, you're just a fool.

Panthers +1.5

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13.5)
It's not feasibly possible to bet on the Lions ever again. And it's not that I didn't believe in the Bears, I just thought Chicago karma was coming home to roost. Adrian Peterson should rush for roughly 426 yards, while Jimmy Kimmel starts making new DirecTV commercials. Fun times for Detroit.

Vikings -13.5

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons
And as punishment for betting against them last week, the Bears are obviously road favorites. Which means I can't not take them and they can't not not cover. Or something like that involving a negative or twelve.

Bears -3

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-3)
This is a "No one knows what the hell to do with this line" game. The Dolphins are upstarting all up on the league right now and the Texans should have beaten the Colts last week. I think they should actually switch to a two QB system, where Rosenfels plays the first 55 minutes of the game and then Matt Schaub, or maybe Owen Daniels, comes in for the last five.

Dolphins +3

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-14)
Even if you knew the Rams would be bad heading into this season, you never thought you'd see this line. The Skins won't stop winning and gosh darnit, I'm done betting on the Rams. Seriously. If it wasn't for Torry Holt's awesomeness, this whole team would be dead to me.

Redskins -14

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Denver can't stop anyone -- Warrick Dunn, who is a 56 year old vertically challenged tailback, just ran for 74 on 11 carries against them. Does anyone else think that's problematic? Because I do. I also feel like Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor could wreck some havoc here.

Jaguars +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ San Francisco 49ers
Donovan McNabb is motivated -- and bloggin' about it! Yeah, there's not really an option here.

Eagles -6

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are maddening to me. How can you get blown out by the Jets, lose your best wideout, and then blowout the Bills? Makes no sense whatsoever. Also, the Cowboys eeked by the Bengals and this game is at the Pink Taco.

Cardinals +6

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The beauty of the Packers caving to the Falcons is that when people started making this line, they didn't think about the Giants beating the 'Hawks 4,442 - 3 on the same day. So, yeah.

Packers +3

New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-5)
You both lost to the Dolphins. FAILless = Chargers, I suppose.

Chargers -5

New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland Browns
It's pretty obvious at this point that we all (well, some of us idiots) got a little ahead of ourselves on the Brownswagon. This one could get really ugly for them in a really public manner.

Giants -8
Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 6 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 10 Oct 2008 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Brandon Lang Picks Dolphins, 49ers, Eagles

Michael David Smith — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 13:10:00 EST

Filed under: 49ers, Dolphins, Eagles, NFL Gambling

Brandon Lang, whose life as a professional sports handicapper was depicted in the 2005 movie Two For The Money, offers picks that he says can turn a profit over the long-term for his clients. His full picks are available exclusively at his web site, www.BrandonLangExperts.com, and he's also offered us three picks for free here at FanHouse.

Dolphins (+7) vs. Chargers
If I'm San Diego general manager A.J. Smith, I'd contact Dr. Phil and put him on retainer for the rest of the season. Because clearly, the Chargers are the most schizophrenic team in the NFL. Consider: In Week 1 versus Carolina, they rallied from a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit, took a five-point lead with 2½ minutes to play and lost on a long touchdown pass on the final play of the game. In Week 2, they fell behind the Broncos 21-3, stormed back to take a 38-31 lead late in the fourth quarter, then got screwed on the Ed Hochuli play and subsequently let Denver win on a last-minute, fourth-down touchdown and 2-point conversion. Then after obliterating Brett Favre and the Jets 48-29 at home on a Monday night, the Bolts went to Oakland last week and promptly buried themselves in a 15-0 halftime hole before digging out and not only erasing the deficit, but actually covering the eight-point spread on a LaDainian Tomlinson 41-yard run with a minute to play.

The point: I trust Ricky Williams on a pot farm more than I trust the Chargers- who are giving up 28 points and a whopping 376 yards per game - to go cross-country and cover a touchdown against a clearly improving Dolphins team that's coming off a bye. (And how impressive was Miami's 38-13 destruction of the Patriots 38-13 in New England two weeks ago?) The Fish have had San Diego's number over the years (7-0 in the last seven meetings since 1995) and with extra time to prep for this one, they'll keep it close and even challenge for the outright win.

49ers (+3½) vs. Patriots
When Tom Brady went down with that season-ending knee injury minutes into the 2008 season, the water-cooler debate began: So who's more responsible for New England's dynasty, the Golden Boy with the golden arm, or the genius in the hoodie on the sidelines? We thought it would take at least half the season to get a definitive answer. Uh, it didn't. In fact, the folks from Mensa contacted Belichick this week and demanded to have its genius label returned.

Honestly, have you seen a Patriots team in the Brady/Belichick era more thoroughly outplayed and outcoached than the one that got torched by Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins two weeks ago? How does a Belichick-coached defense get burned by the same gadget play five different times? The defense was so embarrassing that another pathetic outing from Brady's replacement, Matt Cassel, got completely overlooked. I, of course, didn't overlook it. And let me tell you, there's a reason this kid, up until three weeks ago, hadn't started a meaningful game at quarterback since high school: He stinks!

Including preseason and postseason contests, the Patriots have covered ONE pointspread in their last 13 games, going 0-11 ATS as a favorite. Now they're going across the country and laying more than a field goal to a 49ers squad that won its last home game 31-13? You'd have a better chance at winning money on Wall Street right now than you would backing New England. Take the points.

Eagles (-5½) vs. Redskins
If you're going to win consistently in the NFL, you have to focus on situations as much as matchups. And there isn't a better situational play in the league in Week 5 than this one. You've got the Redskins coming off their third straight win - a stunning upset at archrival Dallas - and undoubtedly a bit tipsy after guzzling the Kool-Aid everyone has been serving them. At the same time, you've got an Eagles squad coming off consecutive physical games (15-6 home win over the Steelers, 24-20 road loss at Chicago) that absolutely cannot lose this week if it wants to stay in the NFC East race. So in a nutshell, Washington is in the classic flat spot, while Philadelphia is in full desperation mode.

Then there's the simple fact that despite the records - the Redskins are 3-1; the Eagles are 2-2 - Philly is without question the superior team. Check the numbers: The Eagles are averaging 27.5 points and 365 yards per game on offense; Washington is averaging 21.5 points and 342 yards. Defensively, Philly is allowing just 18.5 points and 246 yards per game; the 'Skins are allowing 20.2 points and 315 yards. Also, the Eagles have given up a grand total of nine points (three field goals) in two home games, while this is Washington's third road trip in five weeks, all against divisional rivals - and this particular division rival has a fierce D that leads the NFL in rushing yards allowed (53.8 per game) and sacks (17).

Look for the Eagles to serve up a little humble pie to the high-flying 'Skins and knock their rivals back to earth with a double-digit victory.
Brandon Lang Picks Dolphins, 49ers, Eagles originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 03 Oct 2008 13:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 5

Will Brinson — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:00:00 EST

Filed under: NFL Gambling, NFL Media Watch

Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines is Will Brinson's weekly NFL gambling column at FanHouse. Because everyone loves a loser.

You know the drill by now, right? I make jokes about my current season's record (26-34 UGH) and then I make the picks. The good news is that my Tungsten locks (as denoted by **Team name**) are 6-2 on the season. Making me like a real life Brandon Lang or something.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans
This is exactly the type of game where I would, in the normal course of stupidity, always take the Colts. How-EVA, it seems like a trap. The Texans can't be this bad, right? And the Colts are without Bob Sanders. I expect lots of points, a Steve Slaton blowup and Andre Johnson to correct his miserable 2008 by scoring four touchdowns. Of course, I also expect to leave work at 4 p.m. today. And somehow, I don't think that's happening.

Texans +3

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens
I get that people think this team is really good (some people, like Bill Simmons, are talking Super Bowl), and they are. But I have a few rules in life (very few, in fact) and one of them is that when you get Kerry Collins going against a rejuvenated Ray Lewis on the road and handing out three points, you take those points. No, this rule does not come into play frequently, thank you for asking. Also: the under, please.

Ravens +3

San Diego Chargers (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
The Chargers game last week was a backdoor of epic proportions -- there was no reason why they should have actually covered, except that I think I played against LaDanian Tomlinson in approximately seven of my 42 fantasy leagues, and ended up losing because of that jailbreak. Based on their early poor performance though, this line has gotten knocked down to seven. Whatever, I'm a sucker.

Chargers -7

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (-10)
People think that the Chiefs are back, somehow. They are not. The Cats are going to roll here.

**Panthers -10**

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Really? Six? After the Redskins beat the Cowboys and them being the fourth-best team in the NFL? I also think it's safe to operate under the assumption that Brian Westbrook is gonna be "gametime" for the rest of the season from here on out; this will eventually pan out poorly for many gamblers, like last week. Rather than be angry again in Week 5, I will simply do the intelligent thing and stop questioning the power of the Mottrams to win.

Redskins +6

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
There couldn't be a more perfect reason to take a road team that's favored other than "being in Detroit". But the Millen era is over and something tells me that a 2-0 hole to the Dodgers isn't quite enough panic for the city of Chicago.

Lions +3.5

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (-1)
I have zero idea how you can ever make a team that just gave up 56 points a favorite, but someone managed to do it, somehow. I actually think Arizona will bounce back -- they do have something to prove -- but I also think that Buffalo is so legit. But you already knew that.

**Bills +1**

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (TBD)
This line depends solely on whether Aaron Rodgers plays, naturally. I think he does. I also think everyone takes Atlanta. But I also think that Atlanta's not that good and that Rodgers is going to make people in Wisky forget that Brett Favre lobbed six touchdown passes last weekend by playing injured and winning big.

Packers -TBD

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (-17)
That's a ridiculous spread and I wouldn't actually ever bet on it in real life ... maybe. The reality is that the Bengals are still winless and the Cowboys are cheesed off after falling to the Skins, so this should end up being a 40 point margin of victory.

Cowboys -17

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
Things are not going well for the Pittsburgh running game right now, what with the entire running back corps on the mend. Jacksonville will also be inspired by Richard Collier, and generally speaking, I'm a sucker for those type of stories.

Jaguars -4

New England Patriots (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers
I think we all grossly misdiagnosed the Niners based on their performance against the Lions. They're not good. Plus, I haven't picked enough road chalk today.

Patriots -3

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants (-7)
I love how a nice long, relaxing bye week makes the bookies forget how bad the Seahawks are.

Giants -7

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
There's no real way to tell what the hell this spread should be -- it's a matchup of the two most perplexing teams in the NFC. Okay, maybe not, but seriously, who's supposed to be favored here? The Vikings don't stop the pass well and no one can stop Adrian Peterson. In such an event, always side with Purple Jesus over Lance Moore (who totally finished me in fantasy last week as well.)

Vikings +3
Road Chalk and Alaskan Pipelines: Week 5 originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 03 Oct 2008 11:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Brandon Lang Picks: Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals

Michael David Smith — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Chiefs, NFL Gambling

Brandon Lang, whose life as a professional sports handicapper was depicted in the 2005 movie Two For The Money, offers picks that he says can turn a profit over the long-term for his clients. His full picks are available exclusively at his web site, www.BrandonLangExperts.com, and he's also offered us three picks for free here at FanHouse.

Chiefs +10 vs. Broncos
The only organization in America that's had a worse September than the Chiefs is Dow Jones. Not only has Kansas City lost all three of its games, it has gotten outscored 78-32, including double-digit blowout losses to the lowly Falcons and Raiders. So what makes me think that the Chiefs can hang with the undefeated Broncos this week? One reason: My 12-year-old nephew and 10 of his buddies could march down the field and score on Denver's sieve-like defense. The Broncos are coming off two home games in which they surrendered 38 and 31 points, and escaped with two wins by a combined three points. So how can you trust such a porous defense to go on the road, in a hostile venue, against a rival, and cover double digits? I can't. And since the Chiefs are wisely going back to veteran QB Damon Huard in this game and former All-Pro RB Larry Johnson got on track last week at Atlanta with 121 rushing yards, I fully expect Kansas City to put up some points in this one.

Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry; the host is 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 15 clashes; and Kansas City is an incredible 18-4-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home underdog against AFC West foes. Bottom line: You may not have made any money this week supporting one floundering organization (Wall Street), but you can certainly make some on the Chiefs. Take the points.

49ers +5½ at Saints
Three things you can count on every September: The New York Mets will choke away a playoff berth, FOX will unveil a new reality show entitled, Yes, I Have No Dignity, and the Saints' "much-improved defense" will be exposed as being not improved at all. To that latter point: A week after letting Jason Campbell and the pedestrian Redskins' offense put up 29 points and 455 total yards, New Orleans went to Denver last week and got torched for 34 points and 369 yards. So, in a nutshell, the same rule applies here as in the Denver-Kansas City contest: It's difficult to cover a big pointspread when you can't stop an opponent from scoring. And make no mistake, this 49ers offense can put points on the board, having rolled up 33 and 31 on the Seahawks and Lions, respectively, the last two weeks. In fact, San Francisco quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan has a higher passer rating (104.6) than that of Saints QB Drew Brees (103.9).

Speaking of Brees, sure, he's at the controls of an explosive weapon, but right now it's a weapon missing too many bullets. His top wide receiver, Marques Colston went down with a thumb injury in Week 1 and is still several weeks away from returning. Then this week, tight end Jeremy Shockey had hernia surgery and he's down for more than a month. Memo to Reggie Bush: Might want to check your health insurance coverage; you know how these things tend to happen in threes. New Orleans is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite in the Superdome, and they're laying too many points here.

Cardinals +2 at Jets
My sources informed me that Brett Favre sent a text message to Packers GM Ted Thompson this week that read as follows: "Hey Ted - Uh, any chance that $25 million please-stay-retired offer is still on the table?" Seriously, how do you think ol' No. 4 is feeling right now about his decision to un-retire and hitch his Hall-of-Fame wagon to the moribund Jets? His receivers can't get open, his offensive line provides about as much protection as a punctured condom, and his defense couldn't play dead in a western. (I think my 82-year-old grandmother could've gotten free in the Jets' secondary and scored a touchdown Monday night in San Diego - and she uses a walker to get around!) And if that's not bad enough, there's Favre's new coach, Eric "The Weenie" Mangini, who brilliantly decided to try an onside kick Monday after narrowing the deficit against the Chargers to 17-14. If they handed out Ph.D.s for surrendering momentum, "Mangenious" would have to build a new mantel.

So now the Jets, with a gimpy Favre (ankle injury) and playing on a short week after a miserable 3,000-mile flight home from San Diego, have to face an improving Cardinals team that prudently chose to remain on the East Coast after last week's tough 24-17 loss at Washington rather than go back home to Arizona and travel all the way back to New Jersey. Besides, do you think after watching Philip Rivers and his arsenal of weapons shred the Jets' defense Monday that Arizona's trio of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin are drooling over the fact that it's their turn to put up big numbers? Finally, remember that it was just two weeks ago that the Jets lost convincingly at home to Matt Cassel and the Patriots - the same Patriots who lost by 25 points at home to Miami last week. Throw in the fact that the Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this one's a no-brainer.
Brandon Lang Picks: Chiefs, 49ers, Cardinals originally appeared on NFL FanHouse on Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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