NFL Big 10

If you would have asked me before the 2007 season started, I would have said it was a foregone conclusion that Wisconsin cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu would turn pro after the season.

His size has NFL scouts drooling, and his physical style of play and super coverage skills were certainly going to make him worthy of a high draft pick.

Well, sometimes things change. At this point, I'm not so sure.

Ikegwuonu has as many interceptions this year as I do. He's also only picked up 17 tackles in Bucky's first eight games. Part of this is due to the fact that teams just don't throw his way, especially if they have a reasonably talented receiver being covered by Allen Langford. That, along with a well-publicized off-field issue that he doesn't want to talk about, may be enough to keep Ikegwuonu from being the surefire first-round pick we expected him to be at the start of the season.

As a result, his career at Wisconsin might not be done after this season. His position coach, Kerry Cooks, says he's no longer certain that there needs to be a discussion about Ikegwuonu's plans after the season. Frankly, I think that statement says a lot. Cooks is in a better position than anyone to evaluate Ikegwuonu's NFL hopes, as he sees the kid play every day.

Whether you think Ikegwuonu has been hampered by his legal issues or, at least in part, by Langford's poor play on the other side of the field, it's hard to deny that he's one of many Badger defensive players who have not performed at a high level this season. As we discussed before, there isn't just one reason why this defense has fallen off so badly in 2007.

If all of this means that Ikegwuonu needs another year to mature before he goes to the NFL, it's probably for the best. Redemption is a great motivator, and he's not the only Wisconsin player likely to return next year who will be seeking redemption.

What is it about the SEC that compels folks to regularly combine a fetid brew of boastfulness with ignorance? The latest example Via The Wizard of Odds provides all kinds of quotable outward contempt from LSU coach Les Miles towards count 'em 1)USC, 2)the Pac-10 and 3)the Big 12/everyone else. The following comments were made during an interview with New Orleans radio station WWL as reported by Carl DuBois of The Advocate.

Let's go through this piece-by-piece, shall we? Analysis after the jump.

NFL scouts thought they knew these guys, and it turns out we think they got it right...

If you've seen our College Eye for the NFL Guy profiles, you'll probably notice that we're quite argumentative in them. Well, we don't always think that NFL scouts are missing the boat. There are a number of Big Ten prospects that seem to be projected in just about the right position.

Whenever possible, I will note a player's projected spot in Todd McShay's seven-round (!) mock draft ($).

RONDELL BIGGS, DE, MICHIGAN

ESPN.com ($): "Uses hands well, shows good upper body strength and flashes an effective rip move. Stays active and is a relentless pass rusher. Flashes the ability to run through blockers in the backfield and is a powerful tackler that can knock the ball loose when gets to the quarterback...Doesn't have great top-end speed and isn't a sideline-to-sideline player. Isn't fast enough to turn the corner and doesn't close well...He lacks ideal speed and athleticism but Biggs possesses good size and strength versus the run. Biggs also gives a great effort and plays with solid technique."

Probably getting drafted: He's nothing flashy, and may not get drafted. But if that happens, Biggs should be one of the more highly-coveted "street" free agents available after the draft.

PRESCOTT BURGESS, LB, MICHIGAN

ESPN.com ($): "He takes solid angles in pursuit and has established himself as a reliable tackler. He has long arms and a powerful upper body. Does a good job of controlling blockers at the line of scrimmage. He's a fluid athlete for his size...He would rather run around blockers than take them on, which he won't get away with in the NFL. He will have limitations in terms of one-on-one coverage in the NFL...There are also concerns regarding his toughness and mental capacity. Burgess projects as a mid-Day 2 pick in 2007."

Probably getting drafted: McShay has Burgess being picked by Green Bay in the sixth round (193rd overall). I think he's potentially one of the more underrated players in this draft. He's somewhat limited athletically, but he has good size and length, and could be a very effective backup as a rookie.

TYLER ECKER, TE, MICHIGAN

ESPN.com ($): "Shows adequate balance, plays hard and flashes the ability to sustain blocks. Plays under control in space, shows good athletic ability and can adjust to the moving target at the second level. Has a wide frame, can shield defenders from the ball and has the potential to develop into a productive red zone target...Doesn't explode into blocks, doesn't roll hips into blocks and isn't going to knock many defenders back. Doesn't appear to read defenses well and has some problems locating soft spots when working against zone coverage...Ecker has enough of size and athletic ability to develop into a quality reserve tight end in a scheme that doesn't ask him to do a lot of in-line blocking. However, his upside is limited by his lack of speed and explosiveness."

Probably getting drafted: Ecker was a solid player at Michigan, but he will be a priority free agent after the draft. He just doesn't have the physical tools for his position to justify a selection.

BRANDON FIELDS, P, MICHIGAN STATE

ESPN.com ($): "Has excellent leg strength and range should improve if he can improve technique. Possesses adequate accuracy and flashes the ability to pin teams deep...Though gets good hang time on kicks at times, he is inconsistent in this area and needs to work on overall technique...Fields has the power to develop into an excellent NFL punter but he isn't fundamentally sound or consistent at this point."

Probably getting drafted: If Fields gets picked, it will be late. Like most kickers/punters, it's hard to project a spot for him, but he has the talent to be a seventh-round selection.

NFL scouts thought they knew these guys, and it turns out we think they got it right...

If you've seen our College Eye for the NFL Guy profiles, you'll probably notice that we're quite argumentative in them. Well, we don't always think that NFL scouts are missing the boat. There are a number of Big Ten prospects that seem to be projected in just about the right position.

Whenever possible, I will note a player's projected spot in Todd McShay's seven-round (!) mock draft ($).

JAY ALFORD, DT, PENN STATE

ESPN.com ($): "He displays a powerful upper body and does a good job of using his strong hands to control some bigger blockers and to disengage. Has developed a solid work ethic and is said to be very "coachable". He has good football intelligence and picks up on new things quickly...is undersized and must prove he can keep additional bulk on his frame. He's strictly a one-gap prospect that is unable to anchor at the point of attack when teams run at him. He will need to be on the move in order to be effective. He gets frustrated by the double team and will occasionally give up on plays if he can't split it initially...he is a quick and powerful one-gap penetrator with good athletic ability for the position. He's not a fit for many teams in the NFL but the ones that value mobility over size (see: Colts, Buccaneers, Vikings, Bears, etc.) should view Alford as a fourth or fifth round prospect."

Probably getting drafted: Alford, as noted above, projects as an early second-day pick. McShay has him selected in the fifth round by Tennessee (152nd overall). I see Alford as a prospect with somewhat limited upside. He could be a solid player, but he has to be in a system where he can be protected from becoming a liability against the run.

SCOTT CHANDLER, TE, IOWA

ESPN.com ($): "Very effective as a short-to-intermediate receiver. Shows good initial quickness for his size and possesses excellent mobility. Displays good instincts when working as an underneath receiver. His hands are reliable and he does a good job of using his body to shield defenders. Will make the tough catch in traffic...Does not display a mean streak and needs to become a more physical blocker. Lacks explosive power and fails to sustain his blocks at times. Shows toughness as a receiver going over the middle, but he's too much of a "finesse" blocker...he lacks ideal speed to consistently stretch the field at the next level. More concerning is the fact that Chandler lacks the strength and toughness to adequately match up as an in-line blocker in the NFL. Chandler grades out as a late-first day prospect in a weak 2007 class of tight ends."

Probably getting drafted: Chandler is a solid prospect, but I think he's a little bit more athletically limited than Minnesota's Matt Spaeth, and he's not as good a blocker. He's a big target with great hands, and he should go in the third round. McShay's draft has him lasting barely into the fourth round, where Miami takes him with the 108th pick.

TONY HUNT, RB, PENN STATE

ESPN.com ($): "Has excellent lower body strength, keeps legs driving and excels at picking up yards after initial contact. He is a tough, aggressive and competitive runner. Has shown good durability throughout his career...He does not display a second-gear to run away from defenders in the NFL and he will struggle to consistently turn the corner as an outside runner. Lacks ideal lateral mobility and doesn't show great elusiveness in the open field...In our opinion, Hunt has a chance to emerge as a decent starter in a power-run scheme at the next level, but it's more likely he levels off as a good backup. He had an excellent senior season, so his stock is on the rise. Expect Hunt to come off the board in the third round of a weak running back class in 2007."

Probably getting drafted: Hunt should go during the third round. McShay says he'll be picked 91st overall by New England, which would be a good fit for him. It's just not a strong class of backs, which benefits Hunt. That said, his durability and competitiveness should give him a chance to stick as at least a change-of-pace back.

MIKE JONES, G, IOWA

ESPN.com ($): "He's feisty and plays with a mean streak. Displays adequate upper-body power and does a good job of using his long arms to maintain separation in pass pro. He also shows good awareness when it comes to picking up blitzes/stunts. He is a versatile prospect with experience at both tackle and both guard positions. He has developed into a vocal leader. Shows very good intangibles and work ethic...Does not display the wide base to anchor versus more powerful bull rushers in the NFL. Also will need help when attempting to move two-gap defensive linemen in the running game...he is a blue-collar player with the savvy and toughness to find his way onto a NFL roster."

Probably getting drafted: Jones has the look of a late-round pick. However, he also has the look of a guy like, say, Mark Tauscher, Marco Rivera, or Adam Timmerman - that is, a late-round pick who turns himself into a solid NFL starter. There's nothing flashy about Jones, who is projected to go 243rd overall to Green Bay. But he has the ability to play a number of different positions on the line, and will probably be a valuable reserve who becomes a starter within a few years.

Several analysts were talking about this weekend's NFL draft on Cold Pizza a few minutes ago. When the subject came up about Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas, one analyst closed the segment by mentioning that Thomas is so calm, cool and collected about draft day that he's spending the day fishing with his dad.

It's a great story, but the thing is ... that's just Joe Thomas.

Back story: during recruiting, Thomas was one of the nation's most sought-after prospects anywhere. Coaches from around the nation came calling but it became apparent to many he'd stick with homestate Wisconsin.

The reason?

To borrow a lyric from John Denver, "thank God he's a country boy". Thomas is just one of those people happy to go fishing, hunting or ride ATV's. He found that with the homestate school and he'll find that on draft day. Take a look at where he took his official visits: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and Virginia Tech. Lots of wide open spaces at those colleges, no?

So then is it any surprise that someone with the discipline to pass up elite colleges to visit ones that fit his off-field tastes will spend draft weekend fishing?

It helps to know the full story so please file the whole "he's calm this weekend because he's fishing" thing under "myth". The reality is Joe's just being Joe.

NFL scouts thought they knew these guys, and it turns out we think they got it right...

If you've seen our College Eye for the NFL Guy profiles, you'll probably notice that we're quite argumentative in them. Well, we don't always think that NFL scouts are missing the boat. There are a number of Big Ten prospects that seem to be projected in just about the right position.

Whenever possible, I will note a player's projected spot in Todd McShay's seven-round (!) mock draft ($).

LEON HALL, CB, MICHIGAN

ESPN.com ($): "He's a fluid and smooth athlete. Possesses adequate-to-good size and plays even bigger than his size would indicate. An aggressive and tough cornerback. Shows very good instincts and will do an excellent job of reading quarterbacks' eyes in coverage...Lack of ideal turn-and-run skills is biggest knock...Hall is big and strong enough to handle bigger NFL receivers one-on-one and he also does a fine job supporting the run. In our opinion, Hall grades out as a mid-first round prospect but in a weak class of cornerbacks he could come off the board in the top-10 picks."

Probably getting drafted: Early. As the report notes, this is a weak cornerback class, and Hall is the best of the bunch. McShay has him going tenth overall to Houston, and there's little doubt he'll go in the first half of the first round.

ANTHONY SPENCER, DE, PURDUE

ESPN.com ($): "His motor never stopped running as a senior and it seems that the "light finally came on" in terms of his technique and recognition skills. He plays the run hard and will give great effort pursuing from the backside. Displays good strength for his size...Lacks ideal size; somewhat on the shorter side with just adequate bulk. Might struggle to get off of blocks as quickly versus bigger NFL lineman. He is quick and fast, but he doesn't possess great change-of-direction skills...While some consider him a 'tweener defensive end/outside linebacker, we're not convinced he's athletic enough to play linebacker in the NFL. His best fit most likely will be as a 4-3 defensive end in a one-gap scheme similar to the Colts'. Regardless, Spencer should come off the board late in the first or early in the second round."

Probably getting drafted: Spencer looks like he'll jump into the first round. McShay lists him 25th to the Jets. There's still a chance Spencer will drop into the first part of the second round, but the odds are still good that he'll get his name called by the time the Colts pick to close out the first round.

LaMARR WOODLEY, DE/OLB, MICHIGAN

ESPN.com ($): "He never gives up on a play and he displays an outstanding motor. He has improved his strength and did a much better job anchoring when teams ran at him as a senior in 2006...Has trouble stacking at the line of scrimmage versus taller, bigger offensive tackles. He has experience dropping into coverage but he's far more effective when turned loose up-the-field. He's a bit stiff in the hips and might not be fluid enough to make the move to linebacker in the NFL...The key for Woodley is to land with a team that will mask his weaknesses by using him as a one-gap DE. To his credit, Woodley bulked up and became much stronger versus the run in 2006. He also displays the speed, power and vicious mentality it takes to succeed at the next level. Despite his lack of a natural fit, we still think Woodley is worthy of consideration in the bottom-half of Round 2."

Probably getting drafted: Woodley's motor and strength seem to mask his status as a "tweener". A guy with his makeup but less physical ability would be relegated to the second day, but Woodley appears to be a solid second-round pick. McShay has him going 50th to the Titans.

NFL scouts think they know him, but they're wrong...

Matt Spaeth, tight end, Minnesota

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

ESPN.com ($): "Possesses a massive frame. Is tall and displays a thickly built upper body. Has room on his frame to add more bulk. A big target in the passing game. Shows good instincts as a receiver and knows how to find soft spots in zone coverage. Has big, soft hands...Will never be a consistent seam-stretching weapon as a pass-catcher in the NFL. He does not show a second-gear or much elusiveness after the catch. Does not possess good leaping ability and has not shown the ability to consistently catch the ball over his head...He is the consummate "team-guy" and has shown great toughness and leadership as a senior. In our opinion, Spaeth warrants consideration in the latter portion of the first-day in the 2007 draft, but his injury issues could force him to the second-day."

The Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide: "Sells fakes well enough to gain separation consistently. Shows good hands to reach out and pluck passes away from his body. Adjusts well to off-target passes...is a limited athlete. Doesn't break as many tackles as he should. Must maintain leverage better in pass protection...has the smarts, heights, and hands to be a solid receiver on short routes."

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED

It appears Spaeth is going to be a Day Two prospect. ESPN.com's Todd McShay ($) has him going in the fifth round, while Mel Kiper (also $) doesn't list him at all in his four-round mock draft. Other projections have Spaeth as a fourth-rounder, with the aforementioned clip from ESPN.com being the only one mentioning Spaeth as a possible first-day selection.

NFL scouts think they know him, but they're wrong...

Paul Posluszny, linebacker, Penn State

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

ESPN.com ($): "He is one of the most instinctive linebackers in this year's class. Plays the game with tremendous intensity and toughness. Displays adequate speed and athleticism. Diagnoses plays as quickly as any linebacker in the country and takes outstanding angles in pursuit. He makes plays from sideline-to-sideline versus the run...Effective in coverage, but lacks ideal ball skills and does not make many big plays in that facet of the game. Durability is an issue after knee injury in 2005-'06 Orange Bowl...He possesses adequate size and speed, but his rare instincts and ferocious mentality are what make him a special player. Posluszny seems to fit best on the outside but he displays enough promise to play inside or both in the NFL, depending on the scheme."

The Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide: "Moves to the ball quickly. Has the speed to chase down plays and shows an explosive closing burst...Isn't an aggressive blitzer. Drops fluidly into zone coverage...had only one question to answer in 2006: Would a knee injury in a bowl game that ended his junior season make him a different player? The answer: He improved throughout his senior season and showed scouts he was healthy."

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED

Even in a worst-case scenario, Posluszny is off the board by the latter part of the first round. Todd McShay has him going 20th to the Giants ($). Mel Kiper dips him all the way to the Patriots at 24th overall (also $).

NFL scouts think they know him, but they're wrong...

Steve Breaston, wide receiver, Michigan

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

ESPN.com ($): "A homerun threat with the ball in his hands -- as a receiver, return man and on reverses. He shows great vision as a runner and sees creases opening up quickly. Shows very good initial burst and top-end speed. He displays the necessary second-gear to run away from defenders in the open field...Will have some trouble getting off the line of scrimmage versus bigger, more physical defensive backs in the NFL...lacks the physical tools to ever emerge as a difference-maker in the NFL. At best, Breaston will become a No. 4 receiver and a solid punt return specialist at the next level."

The Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide: "Quick, smooth receiver who makes things happen in the open field. Will work the middle and fight to the whistle after the catch...sells fakes so well he turns around defenders...lacks elite explosiveness and speed and the lower-body strength to break tackles."

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED

From the sounds of it, Breaston is going to be available early in the second day. Many "draftniks" are looking at Breaston as a fourth-round selection.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR FOUR YEARS IS SAYING

...that I can't figure out why Brian Cook didn't want to post this.

[Brian Cook weighing in! Personally, I have my doubts about Breaston as an NFL level performer and think his draft slotting as a late-round return specialist is about right. He's not Devin Hester. Sorry, Bruce (and Steve). -ed]

Actually, I'm saying that the scouts are missing the boat on Breaston. What I'm not going to try to do is sell Breaston as a first-round pick. But the idea that he won't go on the first day is somewhat ridiculous to me.

He's not Devin Hester, but he is still a very good kick-return prospect. Just ask Indiana. Or Penn State.

Now, ask yourself something. What did Devin Hester do for the Bears last year, besides returning kicks?

(Answer: "Virtually nothing, unless you're impressed by his nine total tackles.")

Steve Breaston is not exactly a lowly receiving prospect in this draft. He's not the biggest player in this receiver class, but he is scary fast, very elusive, and he's not afraid of contact.

More than any other Big Ten player I've looked at for this project, I do not understand why Breaston is rated as low as he is. He has upside as a slot receiver in the NFL, and he is definitely one of the top return players in the draft. I think he merits selection no later than the first part of the third round. If he's available past, say, pick 75, he becomes one of the top steals on the board.

(Thanks to Brian Cook of MGoBlog and the FanHouse for his help finding Breaston video.)

NFL scouts think they know him, but they're wrong...

Ted Ginn, wide receiver, Ohio State

WHAT NFL SCOUTS ARE SAYING

ESPN.com ($): "He's at his best on vertical routes that give him time to get over the top of defenders in coverage. He also does well on quick-hitting throws and reverses that tend to maximize his acceleration in space. He flashes the ability to snatch the ball while still running on shorter routes, such as quick slants and "jailbreak" screens...he must become stronger and more polished as a route runner in order to fit the mold as a true No. 1 receiver in the NFL."

The Sporting News Pro Football Draft Guide: "Is dangerous in the open field. Has the quickness and agility to make tacklers whiff and the balance to absorb hits and keep on going - despite his thin frame. With improvement and polish, Ginn projects as a game-changer. That will take time, though he probably will contribute as a rookie."

PROBABLY GETTING DRAFTED

Early enough to merit an invitation to the proceedings in New York. We're looking at a top ten pick here, kids.

GUY WHO WATCHED HIM FOR FOUR THREE YEARS IS SAYING

He's a marvelous talent, no question. However, I can't help but see a little bit of Troy Williamson in him. There are exceptions to that. OSU threw the ball plenty of times this season, and Ginn was a big part of that, leading the Buckeyes' in receptions (59), yards (781), and touchdowns (9). He's been a big factor for Ohio State over the last three years, as opposed to the one-hit wonder Williamson. And he was a bigger factor in the return game, too.

(As Devin Hester showed us last year, you can make an impact in the NFL, even if the only thing you do really well is return kicks.)

However, like Williamson, Ginn is undersized. He's not great in traffic, he has inconsistent hands, and he may have trouble consistently getting off the line of scrimmage in the pros. Similarly to Williamson, it's going to be a year or two before Ginn makes a real impact, assuming he ever makes one. It could be argued that Williamson was a better blocker in college than Ginn showed himself to be.

Personally, I find myself downgrading Ginn a bit. I think the top-ten hype is a bit much with him. He has that kind of talent, but will we see enough of it to merit such a high pick? Before he plays like a top-ten pick in the NFL, he's going to have to bulk up a bit and work on being more consistent getting open and catching the football.