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NFL Picks Week 12: Waiting Game

11/25/2009 7:30 PM ET By Dave Goldberg

    • Dave Goldberg
    • Dave Goldberg is an NFL Writer for FanHouse
Drew BreesAnother week, another game of the century.

This time we'll have to wait through 15 other games -- until Monday night, when the Patriots face the Saints in New Orleans, the second meeting in three weeks with an unbeaten team for New England. And the second one in prime time, so the nation can watch to see if Bill Belichick, holding a six-point lead with two minutes left, might go for it on fourth-and-2 at his own 28 to keep the ball away from Drew Brees.

Given that situation again, he probably would. But not because a variety of "football scientists'' and mathematicians, who surfaced after the try in Indy. Belichick doesn't believe in cottage industries, publicity seekers or New York Times bloggers telling him what to do.

The odds guys make the Saints a three-point favorite in this one, meaning they (or the bettors) figure the teams are even and New Orleans gets the home field. Home field? The Pats might think so -- this is where they won the first of their Super Bowls, although other than Tom Brady and Kevin Faulk and Matt Light, there aren't any left from that game in January of 2002.

I keep thinking -- and writing -- that the Saints will lose one. But it's getting to crunch time. If it's not this one, then what? At Washington, at Atlanta, and home to Dallas are the next three. All possible (yes, even the Skins) but none as possible as this one.

Law of averages.

Patriots at Saints (Monday)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New England Patriots 35
New Orleans Saints - 3 34

Law of averages again, although not only do the Texans not know how to close out games, but they've lost 14 of 15 lifetime to the Colts, including one a few weeks ago when Kris Brown (him again) missed the tying field goal in a 20-17 loss.

Gulp!

Colts at Texans

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts - 3 1/2 17
Houston Texans 20

Ben says he'll play. The no line says, "don't risk your money.''

He'll play. More importantly, the Steelers signed two special teams players to tackle Ravens on returns.

Steelers at Ravens

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steeelers No Line 13
Baltimore Ravens 10
Broncos playing badly. Giants on long trip off short week, which doesn't make them happy.

Giants at Broncos (Thurs.)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
New York Giants - 6 20
Denver Broncos 17
Off last week, can the Cowboys score 13 1/2 points to cover this line?

Raiders at Cowboys (Thurs.)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Oakland Raiders 9
Dallas Cowboys - 13 1/2 13
Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Packers at Lions (Thurs.)

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Green Bay Packers - 11 42
Detroit Lions 20

Browns at Bengals

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Cleveland Browns 3
Cincinnati Bengals - 14 24

Bears at Vikings

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Chicago Bears 3
Minnesota Vikings - 8 1/2 24

Redskins at Eagles

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Washington Redskins 6
Philadelphia Eagles - 9 1/2 20

Seahawks at Rams

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks - 3 20
St. Louis Rams 24

Cardinals at Titans

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals No Line 16
Tennessee Titans 24

Dolphins at Bills

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Miami Dolphins - 3 1/2 18
Buffalo Bills 15

Bucs at Falcons

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Atlanta Falcons - 13 31

Panthers at Jets

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Carolina Panthers 24
New York Jets - 3 13

Jaguars at 49ers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars 16
San Francisco 49ers - 3 17

Chiefs at Chargers

Team Pointspread Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs 9
San Diego Chargers - 13 30
LAST WEEK: 9-7 (spread), 11-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 90-69-2 (spread), 106-55 (straight up)

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