The Once-Over: Week 11

With attention spans dwindling, we forgo full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. We call it The Once-Over.

The Early Games

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8): New Orleans was tested last week -- in fact, they've been tested in each of their last four games. Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions and only six touchdown passes in those four games. You can expect the Saints to come out on Sunday and look to clean up their act a bit on offense as they play a divisional foe who doesn't have the arsenal to put up much of a fight.

Josh Freeman's play since taking over at quarterback is giving hope for the future in Tampa. He's thrown four touchdown passes and only two interceptions and seems to enjoy throwing to Kellen Winslow who has 11 receptions in his last two games. The Saints defense is a little beaten up, but should be able to hold off the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Pick: New Orleans


Atlanta (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4): The Falcons have had trouble of the defensive side of the ball all season. They've been unable to find a decent left cornerback and their "bend, don't break" defensive philosophy has gotten them in holes they cannot dog out of. On Sunday the Falcons also have a problem on offense. Michael Turner is listed as doubtful after suffering a high-ankle sprain and hasn't practiced all week. His backup Jerious Norwood has been limited all week fighting to come back from injury himself. With Matt Ryan in a bit of a funk, this offense may not be up to the task of getting enough points on the board to win.

The Giants spent most of their bye week fixing problems. Once teams get into the red zone, New York ranks last in the league in keeping them from scoring. The team did take a big hit when the Giants found out that Antonio Pierce would be out indefinitely with a bulging disc in his neck. His leadership will be missed, but Eli Manning should be able to pass well enough to keep the Giants well ahead of the Falcons all day.

Pick: New York Giants

Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1): The Seahawks have had trouble protecting Matt Hasselbeck. They've tried altering passing routes, keeping an extra man in to block and nothing seems to work. On Sunday they face a Minnesota team with more sacks than anyone else in the league. It could be a long day for Hasselbeck.

The question when teams face Minnesota is whether you guard against Adrian Peterson or Brett Favre. If you stack eight in the box to stop the run, Favre can make you pay. And that doesn't even mention that Peterson is good enough to gain yardage even against stacked boxes. If you back off and try to keep Favre from his many weapons through the air, Peterson hurts you even more.

Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7): Pittsburgh took an awful loss last week to Cincinnati and that's bad news for the Chiefs as the Steelers will come to town with their high-powered offense and run roughshod over Kansas City. Ben Roethlisberger should enjoy the extra time he'll have as the Chiefs only 12 sacks this season, and expect Rashard Mendenhall to fare well against the 24th-ranked run defense.

The Chiefs took a big hit this week when Dwayne Bowe was suspended for four games. Jamaal Charles is coming off of a 103 yard rushing performance and seems to be settling into the starting role nicely, but the Chiefs will have trouble putting up enough points to keep up. With Bowe gone, the offense may sputter when it has to open up the aerial attack to gain ground.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4): The Bills made more news off of the field this week than on, as head coach Dick Jauron was fired and interim coach Perry Fewell stuck with Jauron's plan to sack Trent Edwards and promote Ryan Fitzpatrick to starting quarterback. The Jaguars have the 26th-ranked passing defense, so Fitzpatrick may be able to throw on Sunday. Since both Lee Evans and Terrell Owens endorsed the quarterback change, you would hope they would step up to assist the new guy.

Even after screwing over fantasy owners and kneeling on the one yard line last week, Maurice Jones-Drew leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns. He also ranks fifth in rushing yards, which is important for two reasons. The Bills rank dead-last in run defense and their secondary tends to make quarterbacks offer up mistakes. The Jaguars will run the ball a ton on Sunday, which should make Jones-Drew's fantasy owners very happy.

Pick: Jacksonville

San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4): The Packers have one of the best pass defenses in the league and you saw what they did against a top-tier quarterback in Tony Romo last week. Alex Smith is going to have to play smart and pick perfect times to expose this defense, and he's going to need help from Frank Gore, who has looked great over the past three weeks.

For the first time all season, the Packers looked really comfortable in the 3-4 defense. They were getting three rushers on the quarterback in pass-rush situations and they looked very quick in the scheme. Charles Woodson also is starting to look like an All-Pro defensive back. He's getting pressure on the quarterback, picking off passes and forcing fumbles. If he can continue to do it all, so can Green Bay.

Pick: Green Bay

Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8): At least this isn't a Monday night game, right? Brady Quinn looked less then comfortable against the Ravens last week but gets a chance to face the leagues worst pass defense in Detroit.

Detroit may have the leagues worst pass defense, but Cleveland isn't much better as they rank 20th. They also rank 30th versus the run, so look for Kevin Smith to finally get his opportunity to break a couple of big plays this Sunday like the coaching staff has been wanting to see from him.

Pick: Detroit

Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3): Clinton Portis remains sidelined with a concussion which vaults Ladell Betts to the limelight. He's going to have trouble with the 9th-ranked run defense of Dallas and he's likely not going to get a lot of opportunities to carry the ball since Washington will be playing from behind for most of the afternoon.

The Cowboys have a three-headed monster in running backs Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. Why they ran the ball only 14 times in their loss to Green Bay last week is a mystery too tough even for those pesky kids from Scooby Doo. Washington's run defense ranks 24th and Jason Garrett would be silly not to keep the ball in the hands of Barber and Jones for most of the afternoon.

Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4): The Ravens are blitz-happy and take a lot of chances to put pressure on the quarterback. There isn't a quarterback in the league that's better at making teams pay for their mistakes than Peyton Manning, and you only need to look back one week for that point to be proven.

Ray Rice should be able to churn yardage on Sunday, but this 13th-ranked run defense in Indianapolis isn't as bad as it used to be. The real battle -- and this matchup could ultimately decide the victor -- will be between the two field generals, Manning and Ray Lewis. If Lewis can find a way to confuse and alter Manning's rhythm or the receivers route running, the Ravens have a chance.

Pick: Indianapolis

The Late Games

Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8): Kurt Warner is headed home on Sunday and you know he plays well in St. Louis. He's going to love to throw against the 25th-ranked pass defense, but the key to Warner's success on Sunday will be two-fold. When he gets protection from his offensive line he throws the ball extremely well. The Rams only have 15 sacks all season so Warner should have plenty of time. The second reason Warner will do well is Beanie Wells. Wells is on the verge of breaking out and he's averaging 5.3 yards per carry over his last four games. With the Cardinals giving Wells more touches, he'll take pressure off of Warner and the passing game.

St. Louis has only one win this season, but they aren't ready to roll over just yet. They beat Detroit in Week 9 and gave New Orleans everything they could handle last week. It's true that they likely don't have the personnel to beat the Cardinals, but Marc Bulger will be able to move the ball through the air against Arizona, and the Rams should score some points on Sunday.

Pick: Arizona

Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7): Cedric Benson is listed as doubtful for this game, which is unfortunate for him as the Raiders rank 29th against the run. Bernard Scott will take over and should fare well in Benson's absence. You may also see an early Larry Johnson sighting if Benson truly does not suit up. Cincinnati must avoid "looking to next week" as they face the Raiders -- wait, they face Cleveland in Week 12 and Detroit in Week 13. Looks as if Sunday could be the beginning of a very strong three-game run for the Bengals.

The JaMarcus Russell era has been put on hold in Oakland as the team has decided that Bruce Gradkowski should run the offense. He'll face an extremely tough test as he tries to throw against one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Gradkowski will need to find ways to advance the ball without allowing Hall and Joseph to interrupt the flow of his drives.

Pick: Cincinnati

New York Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3): The Jets started the season fast, but have faltered -- losing five of their last six games. Injuries have taken their toll, but the play of Mark Sanchez is front and center as an excuse for the negative downturn. He'll need to find a way reverse the two-to-one interception to touchdown ratio in his last six games if the Jets plan to win on Sunday.

There may be no more unenviable task than facing a Bill Belichick team after a loss, especially a loss that drew criticism like Belichick had never seen before. Expect his team to come out looking for blood and keep an eye on Randy Moss, who was shut down in his previous matchup against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. If Moss can get open and Wes Welker can provide the same reliable hands he always shows up with, New England might get the monkey of last week's loss, off of their back.

Pick: New England

San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3): This game features teams flying in opposite directions. The Chargers have won four straight and are happy that LaDainian Tomlinson is starting to get his running legs back. During San Diego's four-game winning streak they have scored 28.25 points per game and could exploit weaknesses in the Broncos defense that has been under-performing of late.

In the Broncos first six wins they allowed opposing offenses to score an average of 11 points per game. In Denver's last three losses, teams are putting up 28.3 points per game. The defense needs to find a way to solve their issues and return to early-season form.

Pick: San Diego

SNF

Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5): With Brian Westbrook still out with a concussion, the Eagle need LeSean McCoy to become more involved in the offense. He hasn't carried the ball more than 14 times as the featured back and Donovan McNabb could use the diversion from his passing game as the Eagles fare better in a balanced scheme.

When you're a gunslinger like Jay Cutler you expect to throw a few interceptions. But, you also have to come up with your fair-share of touchdown passes as well. Cutler has had only one game in his last five where he's thrown more touchdowns than interceptions, and the team hasn't done well over that time period either. Cutler may want to calm down a bit, but could really use Matt Forte to step up and rush like he did last season.

Pick: Philadelphia

MNF

Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4): The Titans have won three-straight since a bye week decision by Bud Adams pushed Vince Young into the starting role at quarterback. The team game-planned to help Young achieve and decided to give the ball to Chris Johnson as much as possible, a strategy that has turned him into one of the top rushers in the NFL. Not the defense has to fins a way to stop Matt Schaub who threw for four touchdown passes against them in Week 2.

Stopping Johnson will be priority number one on Monday for the Texans. Johnson blistered the Texans defense for three touchdowns and 284 all-purpose yards and is running better now than he was back when the teams first met. The Texans are coming off of bye week after a crushing loss to Indianapolis -- a game they should have won. If they can't find a way to beat Tennessee again, Houston's playoff chances will look bleak.

Pick: Houston