Week 10 NFL Picks: Midseason Super Bowl in Indy

It's now officially an annual fixture like the Super Bowl: a Patriots-Colts game locked into November. Whichever network has it can reap the sweeps month ratings that come from the matchup of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

This year, it's NBC -- the Sunday night contest. As usual, the teams come in as the top two in the AFC -- or close to it. The Colts are unbeaten, the Patriots are 6-2, have won three straight, five of six and are looking and playing better as Brady regains his form after last season's knee surgery.

This is the 10th game between these teams since 2003, including three in the playoffs. The Pats lead this Brady-Manning series 6-4, but the Colts have won four of the last five, including the AFC championship game for the 2006 season and last season, 18-15.

The line is what you'd expect: Colts favored by 3 for home field.

The game may not be what the odds guys expect. This hasn't always been a series for the home team -- the Pats won 24-20 in Indy in 2007 en route to the perfect regular season that ended imperfectly in the Super Bowl. This year, it's the Colts who are unbeaten, although they're hardly dominant -- if Houston could close games, it might have beaten the Colts last week.

Based on that and based on the sense that the Colts are due to lose:

Patriots at Colts (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New England Patriots		24
Indianapolis Colts	- 3	20

The Thursday night games start now for the increasing number of fans that can get the NFL Network. But these are not exactly the hottest teams in the league: the 49ers have lost four straight; the Bears have lost three of four, with the only win over Cleveland -- which probably shouldn't count.

Bears at 49ers (Thursday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears		19
San Francisco 49ers	- 3	27

That line is perception as much as anything.

Even though the Bengals won 23-20 at Paul Brown Stadium in the first meeting, we're talking here about the Super Bowl champions and a "public' team'' against a team perceived as perennial losers. OK, not just perceived.

Yes, the Steelers should win at home, but ...

Bengals at Steelers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals		16
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 7	19

The Chargers, now only a game behind the Broncos in the AFC West, might petition for a transfer to the NFC East if they win this after beating the Giants.

Eagles at Chargers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles	+ 2	17
San Diego Chargers		23

Shudder to think of DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff against a Green Bay OL that's allowed 37 sacks.

Cowboys at Packers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys	- 3	30
Green Bay Packers		20

;

Brady Quinn is back. Good night for a comeback by the Ravens D.

Ravens at Browns (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 10 1/2	30
Cleveland Browns		6

Broncos at Redskins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Denver Broncos	- 3 1/2	16
Washington Redskins		15

Jaguars at Jets

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars		20
New York Jets	- 7	24

Lions at Vikings

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		20
Minnesota Vikings	- 16 1/2	42

Saints at Rams

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	- 13 1/2	39
St. Louis Rams		17

Bills at Titans

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Buffalo Bills		16
Tennessee Titans	- 6 1/2	21

Falcons at Panthers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons	- 2	26
Carolina Panthers		27

Bucs at Dolphins

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		10
Miami Dolphins	- 10	28

Seahawks at Cardinals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Seattle Seahawks		20
Arizona Cardinals	- 8 1/2	28

Chiefs at Raiders

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		7
Oakland Raiders	- 1 1/2	9

LAST WEEK: 9-4 (spread), 9-4 (straight up)

SEASON: 72-56-2 (spread), 87-43 (straight up)

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

11-12-2009 @ 3:36PM

knicks chick said...

Been looking forward to Week 10 all season! This weekend is dedicated to the SNF game.
And I know I'm in the minority of most sportscasters and football fans, but....

Let's Go Colts!

11-13-2009 @ 4:23AM

David said...

You CAN'T be serious! Are you? The Colts will begin desolving on the first quarter of the game. They will be completely obliviated in the second half. New England is coming to Indy with only one thing in mind... blood... horse blood.

The Colt's "so called" perfect 8-0 ends on Sunday. May the bloodletting begin!

Colt's fans are funny! lol

11-13-2009 @ 9:13AM

Glenn said...

If the Colts weren't so banged up with so many injuries (especially on defense), then they would stomp the Pats. But, the Pats are a lucky team, ans since they are facing such a wounded team, they will likely win the game.

Put a completely healthy Colts team against a completely healthy Pats team....the Colts win by 10.

This week, the Pats win by 10 because of the Colts' injuries.

11-12-2009 @ 7:47PM

coltsfan18 said...

Diehard Colts fan who see's it like this...Ok, lets stop all the bull crap and stop hyping this game like its the Superbowl because its not.
Ok, lets be real. The Colts are playing without their entire starting secondary and what 2 starting linebackers. Not the mention the Wide Reciever situation. Yea, this team is playing without a bunch of starters. Advantage = Patriots.
We Colts fans better hope and pray that we put some serious heat on Brady or he will pick us apart. This is the worst time for us to be playing this team with all the injuries. We must have set an NFL Record this for the most starters being out at the same time !!!!

11-12-2009 @ 7:55PM

skennedysw said...

Tom Brady is going to have to play with the same form he displayed in the game against the Titans. The flawless timing and pinpoint accuracy of his passes in the second quarter and opening drive of the third quarter of that game, despite the terrible weather, was an awesome spectacle, unlike any other I have seen in over forty years of watching football. True, the Titans are not a very good team, but given the weather conditions, Brady's passes would have been impressive even if there were no defensive players on the field.

11-12-2009 @ 8:40PM

hookmrl said...

How about dem SAINTS

11-13-2009 @ 3:50PM

Me said...

I give up, how bout dem Aints ? When are they going to play a real team ?

11-12-2009 @ 8:44PM

Sheila said...

2 words: Freeney & Mathis

I also have 2 words, Moss & Welker

11-14-2009 @ 9:43AM

Timothy said...

Two more words Wayne and Clark

11-12-2009 @ 9:35PM

CPezz said...

Sheila....Who are they, two gay lovers getting married at half time. The only chance the colts have of beating the Patriots is that if Archie gets a hold of the PA system AGAIN and blares the crowd cheers noise when the Patriots have the ball. And you say the Patriots are cheaters HA! I bet the Texans can testify to that, I bet that crowd got real loud during that last field goal attempt.

11-12-2009 @ 9:46PM

Kefkanigma said...

No secondary. Does not matter. Let's see how fast Brady get's rid of the ball with Freeney any Mathis in his face. Colts by 4. Ho Hum another 12 to 14 win season. This time with Super Bowl #2. Colts 32 Saints 17.Looking forward to being at SB again and hopefully this time not sitting at top of end zone next to Jared from Subway commercials. At least he is a Colts fan.

11-13-2009 @ 4:01AM

The New England Patriots will hand the Indy Colts their ASSES this coming Sunday. Everyone knows it. I wager New England will win by a touchdown and two field goals... final score New England 23 - Indianapolis 10.

Yup.

11-13-2009 @ 5:14AM

kmaiam said...

OMG The Colts are going to win this game BIG TIME
I cant wait to see the Colts walk off the field with a win and the Pats with their heads hung down, boo hoo. All I can say is get ready for a lost New England..