Week 9 NFL Picks: Not Much Belief in First-Place Broncos

The Denver Broncos lost for the first time last week, a predictable defeat in Baltimore.

The folks who set the odds seem to think that's the start of a trend. Don't hold it against them -- their first concern is always money, and they seem to think Pittsburgh is the money team as it heads for a Monday night meeting at Invesco Field. The Steelers are a three-point favorite against a team that hadn't lost a game until it went to Baltimore.

Understandable on one level.

The Steelers are the Super Bowl champions, a team that's almost always competitive. Denver's a traditional team, too, but it's tradition most recently hasn't been what it was in the 1980s and 1990s when it went to five Super Bowls, winning the last two in John Elway's final two seasons.

Denver's 6-0 start this season wasn't a mirage and it's been especially strong at home where it beat Dallas and New England in close games in consecutive weeks. So is there any reason to believe it can't beat Pittsburgh?

Not really.

But there is a sense that Kyle Orton, no matter what he's done this season, is not Ben Roethlisberger. And that Pittsburgh is always a force, even at altitude. Moreover, the Steelers are coming off a bye. This season more than others, that seems to help.

Steelers at Broncos (Monday)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 3	20
Denver Broncos		16

This has the same feel as Pittsburgh-Denver -- the road team is favored on reputation as much as performance, as if folks aren't quite ready yet to buy the Bengals' 5-2 record. Or not ready to buy the Bengals' consistency.

But the matchups here favor the Bengals. If the Baltimore defense isn't what it was, it's primarily because of the cornerbacks. If Carson Palmer gets time ...

Ravens at Bengals

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 3	24
Cincinnati Bengals		27

The Cowboys can't avoid the soap opera aspect that surrounds them, even when they're playing well, as they are right now. This time it's Roy Williams and his T.O. act -- you can almost see the tears as he proclaims himself the No. 1 receiver on the team but suggests that Tony Romo throws the ball straighter to Miles Austin and Jason Witten.

The good news for Donovan McNabb is that all HIS weapons -- DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy, in particular -- are young. So they shut up.

Cowboys at Eagles (Sunday night)

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Dallas Cowboys		34
Philadelphia Eagles	- 3	35

After three straight losses, Tom Coughlin has proclaimed this a must win. That's probably right. The New York defense is still hurting but San Diego doesn't play very well when it comes east -- although the late starting time will help.

Chargers at Giants

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
San Diego Chargers		27
New York Giants	- 5	29

Another line that seems off based on the way the Texans have been playing..

Texans at Colts

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Houston Texans		34
Indianapolis Colts	- 9 1/2	35

Panthers at Saints

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Carolina Panthers		27
New Orleans Saints	- 13 1/2	37

Dolphins at Patriots

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Miami Dolphins		17
New England Patriots	- 11	31

Redskins at Falcons

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		13
Atlanta Falcons	- 10	20

Packers at Bucs

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Green Bay Packers	- 10	31
Tampa Bay Bucs		10

Chiefs at Jaguars

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		13
Jacksonville Jaguars	- 6 1/2	17

Titans at 49ers

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans		10
San Francisco 49ers	- 4	21

Lions at Seahawks

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Detroit Lions		9
Seattle Seahawks	- 10	24

Cardinals at Bears

Team	Pointspread	Projected Score
Arizona Cardinals		27
Chicago Baers	- 3	24

LAST WEEK: 4-8-1 (spread), 8-5 (straight up)

SEASON: 63-52-2 (spread) 78-39 (straight up)

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

11-06-2009 @ 3:58PM

blaydz7 said...

Ravens will beat Cinncy, and as a Skins fan, I hate to say the game with Atlanta won't even be that close. (Couch Cower to Washington ---STAT!)

11-06-2009 @ 5:39PM

Anthony said...

It's about time to look at the facts ... and not written opinions in all of these blogs that are based primarily upon continuous local exposure to a regional NFL team. Initially, I'll preface the following by explaining that I have lived in Atlanta for 4 yrs, Denver for 1, Orlando for 1 and Miami for 1. With this being factual, I feel I am in a position to write an opinion that is based upon experience, and first-hand knowledge of how different regional areas react towards their local NFL teams.

Let’s start with Denver. Denver is an area that includes very little in so far as concentrations of mass populations within its surrounding geographical area. Yet it is big enough itself to more than adequately support an NFL team. The local population is as fanatical about the Broncos as are the Cowboy or Pittsburg fans.

Miami Dolphin fans live in an area that is geographically restricted and confined. Moreover, that small area has to be shared with not one, but two other NFL teams, giving Orlando a choice of 3 NFL teams to support. On the other side of the coin, in Miami (as in Denver) there exists lots and lots of local, native born fan fanaticism, one of the reasons that have made these two NFL franchises successful over the years. Still, I can say without reservation, the fans of both teams still do not come close to the connection and love we have for our Saints.

Lets consider two reasons NFL teams lack local fan support. Firstly, fielding a bad, non-competitive team on the field and secondly, the fan base within that area consists of many recently arrived relocated residents who, quite frankly, are not interested in the local teams. Therein lies the “problem” with teams such as the Falcons in Atlanta. Atlanta is an area that, like Las Vegas, reigns at the top of the list of residents who have either migrated or have been professionally transferred to. As such, being that it takes years to fall in love with a local professional sports team in an area where you’re not originally from, the connection to it is superficial at best. I’m living proof ... four years in Atlanta and never once did I feel any kind of connection to the Falcons, much less to the Dolphins or Broncos. It just didn’t feel right! Going to a Falcon game is similar to attending an event where you’re never comfortable with those around you. You feel as if you just don’t fit in.

Therefore, how can fans from other areas of the country connect to the Saints when, unfortunately, our beloved men of black and gold have not performed successfully year in and year out and, national exposure doesn’t come close to teams such as the Giants of Cowboys. Only recently have the Saints competed with the top tier of the NFL. This year we’re not only competing but rather trouncing most teams. Consequently, we’re beating up on teams beloved by other fans who are not accustomed to losing to the Saints, thus causing resentment which we should relate to after years of suffering similar emotions. These drubbings of all teams (so far) by a perennial bottom feeder as the Saints were for so very long, doesn’t sit well in the least bit to those NFL Philly, Giants, Dolphin and Jet fans ... and to a lesser extent Falcon fans.

What we’re reading in these blogs are words of anger, resentment and, yes, my fellow Saints fans, words of jealously and envy. Wow! Aren’t these great times? Instead of attacking these sore losers, remind yourselves of past not so successful times - and instead just smile and smile and smile ....