The NFC South takes center stage on Monday night with a huge showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans in the Superdome. And in anticipation of the crucial ballgame in the bayou, we've turned the show over to Tom Mantzouranis, our resident Saints guru, and Knox Bardeen, a credentialed member of the media covering the Falcons.
Those two break down the game's most important storylines after the jump. And come back at kickoff to join us in our weekly Monday Night Football live chat.
Three Key Questions:
1. Can the Falcons get any pressure on Drew Brees?
Knox Bardeen: One of the key matchups for the Falcons will be defensive end John Abraham against Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod. Last week, the Dolphins' Jason Taylor gave fits to Bushrod and put pressure of Drew Brees all day. Abraham can get by Bushrod the same way and if Kroy Biermann (who is tied with Abraham for the team lead in sacks) is healthy enough to play on Monday night, Brees will be on the run quite a bit.
Tom Mantzouranis: Simply put, no. As mentioned before, Abraham vs. Bushrod is a mismatch, but Payton learned last week that Bushrod needs help against elite pass rushers and will adjust accordingly with tight ends David Thomas and Darnell Dinkins, an exceptional blocker. Expect a lot of two TE sets. But it wasn't the outside pass rush that doomed the Saints in the first half of the Dolphins game, it was the rush up the middle. Drew Brees could have avoided Jason Taylor if the middle held up, but in the first half it didn't. Brees is so good at stepping up and moving around the pocket that you have to get a collapse up the middle to force him into bad throws or taking sacks. The Falcons' interior defensive line isn't good enough to do that against the Saints' really talented young guards. Abraham might get into the backfield a few times, but Brees' quick release and awareness should overcome that.
2. How big of an impact will Tony Gonzalez have in this game?
KB: Gonzalez is averaging a little more than 4 1/2 receptions per game over his last three games but has only scored once. You can safely bet that the future Hall of Famer is eager to get back into the end zone, especially on the prime time stage of Monday Night Football. Saints linebacker Scott Shanle said this week that "It's going to be the toughest game this year as far as matching up." He was speaking of all of the weapons that Atlanta brings to the table, but specifically Gonzalez. Don't be surprised to see Gonzalez targeted a lot against New Orleans, especially in the end zone.
TM: It's tough to say. The Saints haven't let an opposing tight end score a touchdown against them yet this season. Then again, if the Falcons can find a way to get Darren Sharper to help double cover Roddy White, Gonzalez can find some mismatches with strong safety Roman Harper or weakside linebacker Scott Shanle. And if the Saints get a good lead in the fourth, they might go to prevent or Cover-2 and allow Gonzalez to pick up some yards in the middle of the field, meaning his stat line would be impressive. I think something like 75 yards and a touchdown seems fair. That stat line looks nice, especially to fantasy owners, but is that really much of an "impact"?
3. Which Saints running back will have the best game?
KB: I think Sean Payton is going to continue spreading the wealth between Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas. Early on, both runners will see equal time, and the back that is proving to be more effective should see his role expanded as the night rolls on. Thomas has been on fire recently and is earning more yards per carry at the moment -- my guess is that he'll emerge as the back that runs more on Monday night.
TM: Ahhh, the $1,000,000 question. The way it looks like the Saints are going, expect to see something like this: 12-15 carries for Pierre Thomas, 12-15 for Mike Bell, 2-5 for Reggie Bush. Pierre will get almost all of the carries in the first half, Bell will get almost all of the carries in the second half as well as any goal-line carries. The way that sets up, I think Bell is the guy who has the best game. By the time he starts getting a heavy workload, defenses have already been worn out and ill-equipped to keep up with his fresh legs and powerful style. I see Pierre making the Falcons defense chase him to the outside a lot early to tire them before Bell punishes them up the middle. Of course, Bell's impact is dependent on whether the Saints are leading in the second half. If they're playing heavy catch-up, Pierre (and even more-so Bush) will see an increase in carries, but I expect the game to be at least close enough late (if the Saints aren't outright secure in a lead) that Bell and Thomas will split carries, with Bell's doing more damage.
Atlanta's Path to Victory: In the year and a half since head coach Mike Smith has taken over in Atlanta, the Falcons have not lost back-to-back games. They were crushed last week in Dallas, so it's safe to say that Atlanta should fare well tonight on the big Monday Night Football stage. If they are going to win and close the two game gap that New Orleans has already established, the Falcons will need Michael Turner to get back to 2008 form. Turner scored a rushing touchdown in each game against the Saints last season. He'll need to score again and improve on his yards per carry average which has dipped from 4.5 yards per carry last season to 3.4 in 2009.
On defense, the Falcons need to realize that they cannot completely stop the Saints high-powered offense. The secondary in Atlanta is young and has been exposed already this season – especially with the loss of Brian Williams and William Moore. Neither Brent Grimes or Chris Houston match up well against Marcus Colston and the secondary, as a whole, gave up 300 yards passing and three aerial touchdowns to a similar, yet less explosive, Cowboys offense last week. The Falcons defensive backs must keep plays in front of them and use a "bend but don't break" philosophy against Drew Brees and the plethora of passing targets available to the Saints quarterback. -- KB
New Orleans' Path to Victory: The Saints are the team of the century. OK, not really, but their weaknesses (yes, they do have them) are few and far between. Their offense has been nearly unstoppable, and their defense is the real story of the team's success. Their path to victory is simple -- don't fix what isn't broken.
Unfortunately, the team comes into Monday night's game without fullback Heath Evans, the free agent addition whose impact can not be underestimated. His blocking and receiving have made the team's offense much better than they were last year. He's maybe the least well-known name among the team's skill players on offense, but the loss is huge. They'll have to be creative in making up for his absence (especially considering he played a big role in helping out inexperienced left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who doesn't draw an easy assignment with John Abraham), but if anyone can gameplan around it, it's Sean Payton. Whenever this offense has lost pieces it's motored on virtually unabated. We'll see if that continues. -- TM
Predictions: If Atlanta has any dream of winning the NFC South, it must have this game. Meanwhile, New Orleans can flash its undefeated-season potential in front of a national-TV audience. You won't find a better atmosphere than the one in the Superdome on Monday, and it may wind up being one of the more entertaining contests of the season.
KB: New Orleans 42, Atlanta 30
TM: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 23
