Denver Broncos 2009 Preview: Josh McDaniels and the Very Big Bet

Training camps have wrapped up, the NFL season is right around the corner, and it's still hot as sin outside. But instead of cooling you off with a warm island song, FanHouse break out ye old heat check for our 2009 NFL Season Previews. We'll rate each club in 5 categories on a scale of 1 to 10, high score wins.

Give Josh McDaniels this much: He's willing to make an impression. Before he's even coached so much as one regular season game, he's assured that he will either be remembered as a bold, brilliant leader who won because he had the courage of his convictions, or as an abject failure whose hiring set the franchise back by years because he had the courage of his convictions. Some of that has to do with Jay Cutler's career trajectory, but McDaniels needs to win and he needs to win quickly.

Offense: You probably heard about how the Broncos traded Jay Cutler and how replacement Kyle Orton has neither the rocket arm nor good health of the man he was traded for this winter. You also probably heard about Brandon Marshall's litany of complaints and bad behavior, which led to his suspension and could put the second, and final, nail in the coffin of the passing game. Those situations are very real problems, but they have obscured the fact that the Broncos have a very good offensive line which should be able to help them run the ball. Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis should give good effort on that front, and it would be dreamy if they could get enough help in the air to avoid eight man fronts. Re-enter Marshall. If he realizes that the federal government is the only group that gives cash for clunkers and comes with a serious effort to get the contract/trade he wants the Broncos could find some success on offense. Heat Index: 5


Defense: The good news is that it probably won't be as bad as it was last year. The bad news is that still leaves them somewhere in the bottom half of the league. Part of the problem is that the team fixed the back end without addressing the concerns on the front end. Signing Andre' Goodman, Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill to go with Champ Bailey gives the Broncos an experienced, if aging, secondary that should be miles better than the mishmash they threw out there in 2008. The thing about secondaries, though, is that any amount of talent can be compromised by a front seven that can't stop the run or pressure the quarterback. The Broncos didn't do enough of either in 2008 and switching to a 3-4 front now has the underperforming players in unfamiliar positions they may not be suited for. That's not the case with Elvis Dumervil, who looks like a natural edge rusher, but an inexperienced group of defensive linemen and mediocre linebackers can mostly hope to look better as the season progresses. Heat Index: 4

Special Teams: They say not to read much into preseason games, but the early returns on the Broncos special teams is that there's still a lot of work to do. Second-round pick Alphonso Smith had issues holding onto the ball on punt returns, which may force Eddie Royal back into the role even though he's now a key part of the offense. Hillis looks like the likely kick returner, which trades explosiveness for the ball security that Smith hasn't shown. A long Devin Hester punt return showed there's still plenty of work to do on the coverage units, and Matt Prater has been an inconsistent kicker since taking over for Jason Elam. Brett Kern looks like a solid punter, though, so they've got that going for them. Heat Index: 4

Coaching: Most of what you need to know about McDaniels we talked about above. In some ways, he's like a college coach, say Rich Rodriguez of Michigan, who plays a radically different scheme than his predecessor and needs to recruit players who are a better fit. This isn't college, though, and, like Rodriguez, McDaniels has to deal with the way things out of his control color his perception. Rodriguez earned the ire of Michigan fans by mucking with old school traditions which loyalists saw as a precursor to a three-win season. McDaniels traded Cutler and if the Bears have a great year while the Broncos struggle he'll feel a hotter seat because of it. All of that said, McDaniels clearly has something to be a head coach at 33. It just remains to be seen if that something causes him to succeed or fail. Heat Index: 6

Intangibles: All of the slings and arrows fired at the Broncos this offseason might have a positive effect on a team that doesn't like hearing how terrible they are at every turn. That kind of thing can bring you together and make you a bit stronger than the sum of your parts might be otherwise. Somewhat related to that is the impact of having a good number of the players on the roster fighting for their future. The Broncos are in flux, which may not lead to many wins but it leads to a lot of turnover and guys who want to stick around will be under pressure to prove their worth. Heat Index: 5

Total Heat Index: 24/50 The number seems about right for a team that's just about halfway to being a good football team. The biggest holes on the team -- quarterback and the front seven -- aren't going to be filled this year, but the team has enough around them to take risks and figure out what they need to go out and do before the 2010 season.