Houston Texans 2009 Preview: Finally a Playoff Team?

Training camps have wrapped up, the NFL season is right around the corner, and it's still hot as sin outside. But instead of cooling you off with a warm island song, FanHouse break out ye old heat check for our 2009 NFL Season Previews. We'll rate each club in 5 categories on a scale of 1 to 10, high score wins.

Houston has forgotten what it is like to root for its hometown NFL team in the playoffs. It's been since the 1993 season that a playoff berth has graced this football-obsessed region, and everyone wonders after two 8-8 Texans seasons whether the team finally has the pieces to make a legitimate playoff run. The Texans have replaced the Cardinals as the trendy dark horse pick that might break out in 2009. No really. Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin's comments are pretty representative of this sort of thinking.

Offense. The Texans are in the fourth year of Gary Kubiak's old school, Bronco-style offense, and quarterback Matt Schaub is in his third year of the system. The team has 11 returning offensive starters. Kubiak remade an offense from something that was unwatchable in 2005 to one that was third in total offense last year, though only 17 in scoring offense. Guessing from their schedule compared to last year's, they may end up facing fewer tough scoring and passing defenses. The key questions for the Texans offense are these: 1. Can Matt Schaub stay healthy enough to play effectively for 16 games? 2. Can they improve their red zone decision making and play calling? 3. Can they keep composed facing physical, quality defenses, especially 3-4 fronts? 4. Can they play effectively on the road? Out of 115 catches for wide receiver Andre Johnson last year, 76 were at home. Heat Index: 8.


Defense. The Texans defense has been, on average, the worst in the league over the last four years in defensive efficiency. That result got the defensive coordinator, secondary coach and defensive line coach fired. The Texans defensive philosophy has changed from a read and react scheme that many of its young players struggled with to something that has been described as more attacking and aggressive. It's clear that new defensive coordinator Frank Bush has a plan, but the question is whether the Texans have the talent and experience to execute it. It's hard to even identify the returning starters on the defensive side of the ball because so much is in flux. In less than two weeks before the first game, the Texans are still trying to figure out their best defensive tackles. Their starting cornerbacks haven't seen any preseason action because of contractual disgruntlement (Dunta Robinson) and injury (Jacques Reeves and his broken fibula). Especially early in the season, I predict some erratic defensive play while they are trying to figure out their identity and gain cohesion. Ex-linebacker Bush wants his players to blow opponents up, but while they are working on their kill shots and blitzes, they may leave opportunities for offenses to expose their over-aggressiveness and lack of experience. Heat Index: 5

Special Teams. One of the few coaches that remains from the original Texans is special teams coach Joe Marciano. Everyone loves the guy. In most years, the Texans special teams have tended to be pretty solid if Mariciano didn't have too much personnel turnover. Kicker Kris Brown is likely to have his best season yet given the opportunities that the offense will provide, and his consistent performance in recent years. Marciano has produced a number of outstanding punt and kick returners, and hopes to do the same this year. The biggest question for special teams is the number of new players doing blocking. Heat Index: 8.

Coaching. Bob McNair believes in Houston native Gary Kubiak, and despite nonsense written to the contrary, he would be loathed to fire him unless there were a catastrophic season. Though his coordinators are inexperienced at their positions, Kubiak has surrounded them with very experienced position coaches such as Alex Gibbs, Ray Rhodes and Bill Kollar. They aren't afraid to bring in experienced help given that Oiler Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews is in his first year as a offensive assistant helping with basic grunt work. Though the offensive coaches are clearly on the same page philosophically, the defensive staff is coming together for the first time this year. Texan fans would like to see Kubiak do better with coaches challenges, timeouts and strategic football decisions (aka don't go for it on fourth down in the middle of the field in the first quarter of a road Steelers game) Heat Index: 6.

Intangibles. Prior to the season, former Colts coach Tony Dungy said that the Texans were "a confidence piece" away from being an elite team. The team has fought through the adversity of an 0-4 start last year (almost 0-5) and a destructive hurricane that eliminated their bye week. They know how to deal with adversity, but in 2009 can they take the next step and prepare for success? The biggest locker room storm clouds? Contract unhappiness with key players: cornerback Dunta Robinson, tight end Owen Daniels and linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Heat Index: 6

Total Heat Index: 33/50 It's all about the defense. The team has gone 8-8 the last two seasons with horrific defense, so if the Texans can just upgrade it to mediocre, the offense is likely to be able to do some game-chewing drives. Their early season home-focused schedule sets up for a fast start, if they can take advantage of it. It will be a tough season, though, if the Texans offense feels the need to take chances because they don't trust the defense to keep games close. Turnovers have been a problem for the offense over the last two seasons, and part of that may be from a fear of punting the ball and only getting the ball back after an inevitable score.