Patriots Sign Andrew Walter, Know Something Raiders Don't

Al Davis loves speedy wide receivers and strong-armed quarterbacks. These are well-known facts that explain -- though don't justify -- many of the Raiders' draft-day decisions.

There was a time, 25 to 30 years ago, when Oakland's reliance on the deep pass was integral to its success. But defenses evolve to combat offensive advancements and what was in vogue a few seasons back will almost certainly be obsolete today.

It's an arms race. Unless you're Davis, who still has visions of Kenny Stabler or Jim Plunkett regularly connecting with Cliff Branch. Meanwhile, the reality is that the Raiders are one of the worst organizations in the league, and there's no reason to think that will change anytime soon.

I mention this because the team released 2005 third-round pick Andrew Walter last week, and today the Patriots have signed him. (Props to FanHouse's Nancy Gay for calling this on July 30.) Typically, a club signing a recently released backup quarterback isn't news. But Bill Belichick's player personnel skills are almost mythical at this point, and if he sees something in Walter -- particularly in light of the Raiders' decision to dump him -- then it suddenly becomes an interesting story.

Taken out of context, Oakland was right to jettison Walter. The former Arizona St. standout had 15 career starts in four NFL seasons, completed just 52.3 percent of his passes, and tossed more than five times as many picks (16) as touchdowns (3).

But here's the thing: I'm not sure anybody could have succeeded in Oakland under the current regime. Davis considers the fly pattern fundamental to winning, but he seems less interested in the many moving parts that are required to pull it off. Yes, I know: quarterbacks who can rocket the ball 80 yards in the air and wideouts who can't be overthrown are a requirement, but so too is a competent offensive line.

In 2006 Walter started 12 games, and the Raiders' offensive line ranked dead last in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate statistic. Even without the fancy math, the raw sack total is harrowing: Oakland quarterbacks went down 72 times. (By comparison, Philip Rivers was sacked a league-low 15 times that season.) Also not helping: Art Shell blankly staring his way through the season while bed and breakfast proprietor Tom Walsh called the plays.

Walter was uninspiring as a starter, but dialing up seven-step drops when the offensive line was strictly pass-blocking optional left little doubt in the outcome. In fact, it wouldn't have mattered who was under center.

The Raiders passed on an opportunity to draft a quarterback in 2006 (presumably because they still had high hopes for Walter), which meant that Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler weren't an option. Instead, the team selected safety Michael Huff with the seventh-overall pick, Leinart landed in Arizona and the Broncos traded up to get Cutler. Leinart didn't fit the mold of an Al Davis quarterback -- he's more finesse passer than bomb thrower -- but Cutler did.

But with the verdict still out on Walter, the organization settled on Huff, a speedy safety who, three years later, heads to training camp with his roster spot on the line. And even if Davis had drafted Cutler, there's no evidence to suggest the Raiders would be better off. After all, Jake Plummer had a higher winning percentage in Denver than Cutler, and the handball star was the last quarterback to take the Broncos to the playoffs. Cutler's strong arm wouldn't have been able to overcome the other offensive shortcomings in Oakland.

Which goes a long way in explaining why JaMarcus Russell, the Raiders first-overall selection in the 2007 draft, has struggled during his two-year career.

So when the Patriots sign Walter (and release Matt Gutierrez), maybe there's more to it than filling out the depth chart. Matt Cassel, a 2005 seventh-round afterthought, went nine years between starts. Luckily, he was in the perfect system for his skills. And when Tom Brady went down in Week 1 last season, Cassel helped the Patriots to 11 wins, and parlayed that into a starting gig -- and a hefty raise -- in Kansas City. Frankly, I'd be less surprised if Walter had similar success if given the chance.

Just in case you need more proof: two years ago, the Pats took Randy Moss off the Raiders' hands for a fourth rounder and all he went on to do was set the NFL single-season touchdown reception record. So, right, when it comes to assembling a roster I'll take a calculating Belichick over a paranoid Davis.