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Summer Scramble: AFC North Burning Questions and Prediction

Posted Jul 17, 2009 9:00AM By Dan Graziano (RSS feed)

Filed Under: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, AFC North, FanHouse Previews, NFL Predictions, NFL Analysis

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It's July, the slowest month of the year for the NFL, and it's driving you nuts. You need a fix. A hit. Anything NFL to pull you through the dog days. FanHouse is here to help with an in-depth look at each division that should have you plenty prepared for training camp. We're calling it the Summer Scramble. Today we look at some burning questions in the AFC North and offer a ridiculously early prediction for how the division will finish.

Do the Steelers have enough depth on the offensive line?

This actually matters, because if the Steelers have a weakness it's that their offense (specifically, their quarterback) is a little bit mistake-prone. Ben Roethlisberger threw an interception once every 31.3 pass attempts in 2008. The only regular starters who were picked off more frequently were Brett Favre (23.7) and Gus Frerotte (20.1). The only quarterback who was sacked more often than Roethlisberger in 2008 was Matt Cassel. The Steelers' defense and running game are so good that they mask this, and once the playoffs roll around Roethlisberger locks in and plays a more focused, mistake-free game. But if those regular-season trends hold up, the Steelers' offensive line is going to be crucial.

Tackles Willie Colon and Max Starks are returning mainstays, as are left guard Chris Kemoeatu and center Justin Hartwig. But Pittsburgh made the line an obvious point of emphasis in the draft, picking Kraig Urbik in the third round and A.Q. Shipley in the seventh. If Urbik can come quickly enough to win the starting right guard spot, it might help add some power to the running game. It also would allow Darnell Stapleton to function as something of an all-around O-line backup able to fill in at either guard spot as well as center. The more oomph they can add to the run game on which their offense is built, the better. And the more time they can give Roethlisberger to make the best decision possible when the play is on him...that's going to be a big help too.

Is there really this much reason for optimism in Cincinnati?

The Bengals have emerged as a chic sleeper pick in this, the season of ridiculously early predictions, and there are some good reasons for that. They had an absolutely stellar draft. Carson Palmer is apparently healthy, and having Andre Smith playing in front of him should help him stay that way as well as make the running game more formidable. The defense is loaded with good young talent. The pieces are in place for a nice season in Cincinnati...assuming everything goes right. Now, in Cincinnati it doesn't often do that, and there's no doubt that Bengals fans should and will temper their enthusiasm for that reason. They'll miss T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Laveranues Coles is a downgrade. Character concerns still litter their roster, and could undo Smith and that stellar-looking draft class. So sure, there's reason for hope, but people, come on. These are the Bengals. Wouldn't it be better to expect little and be surprised than to expect a lot and be let down? Again?

Who's going to catch the ball in Balitmore?

Well, this went ahead and became the burning question for the Ravens earlier this week, didn't it? Whether you buy the Derrick Mason retirement story or not, at best he's now a big question mark. And they weren't ultra-strong at receiver to begin with. The Ravens will employ a three-headed rushing attack with Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McLain splitting carries, but young Joe Flacco is going to need some folks to whom he can throw that deep ball. Unless Mark Clayton can surprise everybody and emerge as a No. 1-caliber wideout and Demetrius Williams as a strong second option -- or unless they can get lightning in a bottle with a veteran free agent like Marvin Harrison -- the Ravens are going to struggle to keep defenses from keying on their running game all year.

Are the Browns trying to be this year's Lions?

It's not hard to make a case for the Browns as the worst team in the NFL in 2009. They ranked third from the bottom of the league in points per game in 2008 and traded their best offensive weapon, tight end Kellen Winslow, to Tampa Bay. They brought in a new coach, Eric Mangini, who alienated everybody and accomplished little in New York. They have no idea who their quarterback is because the choice is between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson and they don't like either one of them. Their best receiver, Braylon Edwards, has the drops and they spent most of April trying (unsuccessfully) to trade him. Their best running back is Jamal Lewis, whose best days are obviously behind him. It's a mess. They have a couple of young stars in left tackle Joe Thomas and linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, but on balance there's very little to like about this team, and very little reason to expect it to be any kind of a factor.

RIDICULOUSLY EARLY PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

1. Steelers (11-5): Defending champs are too solid in too many areas for anybody in this crowd to knock them off.

2. Bengals (9-7): Hedging? Sure. But there's some good and some bad here, and that adds up to middle-of-the-pack.

3. Ravens (8-8): The defense is still good, but can they score enough points to crack the AFC playoff field?

4. Browns (2-14): If there's a team that can match the Lions' 0-16 of a year ago, it's the one on the shores of Lake Erie.

Tuesday, July 21: NFC South Position Battles to Watch
Wednesday, July 22: NFC South Burning Questions and Prediction
Thursday, July 23: AFC South Position Battles to Watch
Friday, July 24: AFC South Burning Questions and Prediction

Tags: andre+smith, AndreSmith, AQ+Shipley, baltimore+ravens, BaltimoreRavens, ben+roethlisberger, BenRoethlisberger, brady+quinn, BradyQuinn, braylon+edwards, BraylonEdwards, carson+palmer, CarsonPalmer, cincinnati+bengals, CincinnatiBengals, cleveland+browns, ClevelandBrowns, derek+anderson, DerekAnderson, derrick+mason, DerrickMason, dqwell+jackson, DqwellJackson, eric+mangini, EricMangini, joe+flacco, joe+thomas, JoeFlacco, JoeThomas, justin+hartwig, JustinHartwig, kraig+urbik, KraigUrbik, lavernues+coles, LavernuesColes, Leron+McLain, mark+clayton, MarkClayton, marvin+harrison, MarvinHarrison, max+starks, MaxStarks, pittsburgh+steelers, PittsburghSteelers, ray+rice, RayRice, Summer+Scramble, willis+mcgahee, WillisMcgahee

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