Will 10 Quarterbacks Top 4,000 Passing Yards This Season?

Retired NFL quarterback Trent Green is the first-ever guest columnist of MMQB, filling in while Peter King is on vacation. Green provided an interesting read on subjects relating to the league's personal conduct policy, concussions and the expanded season. And of course it wouldn't be a MMQB without a healthy dose of Favre thrown in for good measure.

What jumps out of Green's article is his prediction that 10 quarterbacks will have over 4,000 yards passing this season. He says six are a lock to do it (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers), and seven have the potential to do it (Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck).

Let's put this prediction in context:

• Last year, six QBs broke the 4,000-yard mark (Brees with 5,000-plus, Warner, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers and Manning). McNabb also came very close to breaking that mark last season for the first time in his career, finishing with 3,916 yards passing.

• A number of the QBs on Green's list missed time with injuries last season: Brady, Hasselbeck, Romo and Schaub.

• Exercising basic math, a QB has to average 250 passing yards a game and not miss a game to get 4,000 yards. Eight quarterbacks averaged more than 250 yards per outing last season: the six that broke 4,000 yards passing, as well as Romo (265.2) and Schaub (276.6).

• Over the last five years, the average number of QBs surpassing 4,000 was five. Here are the yearly numbers: 2008 (6), 2007 (7), 2006 (5), 2005 (2), 2004 (5).

• There's a number of quarterbacks who have broken 4,000 over the last 5 years who are no longer starters, are placeholder starters, are out of the league, are playing team handball and/or are in a state of Favrean indecisiveness: Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green, Jon Kitna, Jake Plummer and, of course, Brett Favre.

Green should know better than most that no NFL quarterback is a lock for anything given the violent, injury-filled nature of the sport. Also some guys will find themselves in less than ideal passing circumstances (throwing to the Bears receiving group, for example), or maybe are on a team that has a strong enough defense so it doesn't demand the QB to win the game or play from behind.

With all that in mind, I'd put the over-under at six quarterbacks with plus-4,000 yards. Your thoughts?

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

6-29-2009 @ 4:00PM

achilles433 said...

Starting with Green's list of 13 (6 locks, 7 potentials) then adding Favre and Brady...

-Cutler in an environment where 4k is unnecessary, difficult and downright unlikely

-Can't imagine the Chargers needing 4k if their running game and/or defense improve just a little bit from last year. Cross Rivers off.

- I like Bowe, but KC might prefer to rely on the run given that Bowe is the only credited receiver on the team. Cross Cassel off, he'll be 3000-3500. 13 left...

-Amongst the 10 remaining, I say 2 (likely candidates being Palmer, Schaub, Hasselbeck) miss a handful of games even if they're on pace, much like last year. Down to 11.

-From among Romo, Brady McNabb and maybe i put a few others in this category, I think you get 3 that come close but not quite to 4k since they're teams are good enough to not need big time passing every game. Down to 8.

-Favre + AP = less Favre throwing than he has in years. my numbers at 7

I say 7, but honestly, the only locks in my mind are Brees, Rodgers and Warner

6-29-2009 @ 4:02PM

Apparently fudged my math after I went back and added Favre and Brady, my final number was 6, with only 3 being locks

6-29-2009 @ 5:26PM

Stephanie Stradley said...

Some thoughts:

In Favre's 17 full seasons, he has broken 4000 in 5 of seasons. I do not see him doing it if he is recovering from surgery, playing with AP on a team with a good defense.

Hasselbeck has never broken 4000 yards (came close in 2007) and is coming off of injury. I'm not sure his offense is ready to do that.

Palmer has done it twice in 5 years (3 years of full seasons). If he is healthy and can find a replacement of Housh, that's plausible.

It's very doable for Schaub if he stays healthy. I'm not sure how much the defense improves, and I think Schaub is better in year three of the old-Bronco style offense that got Plummer 4000.

Thanks for the good comment.

6-29-2009 @ 4:08PM

generalchaos said...

would be funny as heck if jay cutler got over 4,000 yards just so people who have blasted bears recieving can say oh maybe there not as bad as we thought.

Atlanta's receivers looked better when they had a new QB throwing to them. That being said until they are proven, the Bears wide receivers are going to be a question mark. Weather, a good defense and a more run focused offense may stop Cutler from 4000.

JFCJR said...

One thing for sure.........Kyle Orton will not be in that group! Thanks McDumbass.

Sign me,
A Prior Bronco Fanatic

6-29-2009 @ 10:26PM

Matt Snyder said...

Just wanted to say I particularly loved this comment. Carry on.

6-29-2009 @ 6:37PM

John said...

Great comments from everyone. But I am not sure Aaron Rodgers is a lock. He had a lot of injuries during college, and is injury prone, including last year. I don't think he will make it through this year without some lost time. I'll give him 3500, but not 4000.

6-29-2009 @ 6:53PM

John,

Last year, in Aaron Rodgers first full season with the Packers, he threw for over 4000 yards. That's a pretty remarkable achievement in a player's first full season. 28/13 TDs to INTs is pretty solid as well. I wouldn't say Rodgers is a lock because it's such a team sport and injuries do happen, but I am guessing that he plays better as he has more experience.

6-29-2009 @ 6:59PM

Stephanie, you are missing my point. Last year he made it through all sixteen games as the starter. I'm saying I don't think he'll make it through all sixteen games this year. He is injury prone. If he is sidelined, he can't put up yardage.

6-29-2009 @ 7:33PM

We are all injury prone compared to Favre. It's hard to predict QB injuries, and it will be interesting to see in a post-Brady knee injury era whether the refs will be particularly protecting QBs next year.

6-30-2009 @ 10:20AM

slaird22 said...

Orton might very well have a shot at that 4,000 yard mark playing for Denver. You have to realize that this guy is coming from Chicago, playing in frigid winds and throwing to Random McWidereceiver and he's going to Denver with (well, hopefully) Brandon Marshall. And he played well in that joke of an offense Chicago had.

I'll bet that he racks up more yards than Cutler, who threw it all over the field last year including 18 times to a member of the opposing team.

6-30-2009 @ 2:59PM

DAN said...

i like orton , i will say he will put up better # than cutler , aron rogers will put up over 4000 this season and posibley the pro bowl , its hard to say because if the pack run the ball well then rogers might not , brees will , brady ,payton , warner ,and rogers .