
It's amazing how a player can rise and fall in the final weeks of the draft. Tyson Jackson hasn't played a game since early January. All through January, February and March, he was looked at as a defensive end who could go somewhere between No. 10 and No. 20.
But now in the final days before the draft, all of a sudden multiple mock drafts are predicting Jackson to go No. 3 overall. We'll find out soon whether it's a true rise or some subterfuge.
With the draft just hours away, here is a final look at who the mock drafts are picking to go where. This is a roundup of 17 different mock drafts, all of the mock drafts are from this week and most are from the last day as experts try to refine their final predictions. Everyone will get No. 1 right, as everyone predicts the Lions will take Matt Stafford.
This is not a mock draft itself. You'll notice that a couple of players are tied to more than one team. The reason for that is that by surveying 17 different drafts and all the different opinions, you're going to get a lot of disagreements as you would expect. So while multiple experts think Aaron Curry will go No. 3 to the Chiefs, another group of mock drafts believe he'll fall to Cleveland at No. 5.
So don't think of this as a separate mock draft, but as a handy cheat sheet to give you an idea of where in the first round these players will go, as well as predicting what positions are most likely to be picked by each team.
The mock drafts surveyed included: Sports Illustrated's Peter King and Don Banks, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, CBS Sportline's Pete Prisco and Clark Judge, National Football Post's Michael Lombardi, Ourlads, Scout.com, NFL Draft Scout's Chad Reuter and Rob Rang, Pro Football Weekly, Football's Future, Walter Football and the FanHouse itself.
For each team, the number of votes is listed in parentheses after the player's name. If no four of the mock drafts could agree on a player, then that team is listed as having no consensus.
| 1. Detroit Lions |
Consensus Pick: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia (17)
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Other picks: None
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The Analysis: Since he's already agreed to a record-breaking $41.7 million guaranteed, it's good to see that no draft expert is predicting anyone else will go No. 1.
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2. St. Louis Rams
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Consensus Pick: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor (12)
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Other picks: Eugene Monroe (4), Mark Sanchez
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The Analysis: If Sanchez goes to the Rams, NFL.com's Pat Kirwin looks like a genius. But nearly everyone else feels very confident that the Rams will pick the draft's best left tackle and then hope he matches the production they got out of Orlando Pace for so many years.
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3. Kansas City Chiefs
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Consensus Pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest (9)
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Other picks: Tyson Jackson (7), Jason Smith
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The Analysis: Two weeks ago, you couldn't find a mock draft anywhere that had Jackson going this high. Now it's the in-the-know pick. We'll find out this afternoon if that's because he's flying up the board of if it's just another draft smokescreen.
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4. Seattle Seahawks
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Consensus Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal (10)
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Other picks: Michael Crabtree (4), A. Curry, J. Smith, Eugene Monroe
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The Analysis: If the Seahawks want to trade down, telling everyone they are looking to pick Sanchez would be a good way to drum up interest. But he also could give them a long term replacement for Matt Hasselback. If you're Seneca Wallace, you're hoping really hard that this pick goes for Crabtree instead of another QB.
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5. Cleveland Browns
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Consensus Pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest (6)
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Other picks: Michael Crabtree (4), Brian Orakpo (4), B.J. Raji (2), Michael Jenkins
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The Analysis: This is why Curry was trying to play Let's Make A Deal with the Lions. If the Chiefs don't take him at No. 3, he'll still be filthy rich, but not nearly as rich as he would have been with a below-market contract as the No.1 pick. The Browns' front office would have to be thrilled by this scenario, as Curry is the safest pick in the draft.
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6. Cincinnati Bengals
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Consensus Pick: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama (9)
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Other picks: Jason Smith (2), Eugene Monroe (2), B.J. Raji (2), Beanie Wells, Michael Crabtree
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The Analysis: If there's a team that will lot at physical talent first and leave aside concerns about a players' focus/makeup, it's the Bengals. It hasn't worked out for them for the past 20 years, but hey, maybe this year is different. Smith is a top talent, but if the Bengals have their pick of Eugene Monroe and Smith and they choose Smith, they are showing they just love to gamble.
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7. Oakland Raiders
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Consensus Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri (8)
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Other picks: Darius Heyward-Bey (5), Michael Crabtree (2), Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith
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The Analysis: Maclin is the best combination of speed and production among this year's wide receiver crop. Since Al Davis is still remembering the days of Cliff Branch, Willie Gault and James Jett, it's best to expect him to go for pure speed. Heyward-Bey could go here, or he could still be sitting on the board 10 or more picks later, as you'll see.
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8. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Consensus Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California (5)
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Other picks: Andre Smith (4), Eugene Monroe (4), B.J. Raji (3), Michael Crabtree
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The Analysis: Remember this is a roundup of mock drafts from around the Web. We don't believe that Sanchez will be picked twice, but 10 of the mock draft experts pick Sanchez to go No. 4, while most of the others think he'll fall to No. 8. If Jacksonville doesn't pick Sanchez or trade out of the spot, Smith or Monroe would be a nice upgrade for the offensive line, but getting Crabtree at No. 8 would be steal for a team in need of wide receiver help.
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9. Green Bay Packers
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Consensus Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State (6)
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Other picks: B.J. Raji (3), Eugene Monroe (2), Michael Oher (2), Andre Smith, Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, Michael Crabtree
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The Analysis: With the way the draft-day rumors are rumbling, it's hard to see Jackson falling any further than here (sorry Denver). Jackson would be a great fit for the Packers as they try to transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4, giving them the solid defensive lineman to build around.
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10. San Francisco 49ers
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Consensus Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech (4)
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Other picks: Eugene Monroe (3), Brian Orakpo (3), Jeremy Maclin (2), Andre Smith (2), Josh Freeman, Michael Oher, Aaron Maybin
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The Analysis: The 49ers pick has been one of the most widely debated picks of the first round in each of these mock draft roundups, and it's no different as draft day arrives. What seems pretty clear is there are a lot of scenarios where San Francisco will be able to snag an excellent player if it's willing to go for the best available player. Crabtree or Monroe would be great values at No. 10.
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11. Buffalo Bills
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Consensus Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
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Other picks: Michael Oher (3), Brandon Pettigrew (2), Jason Smith, Everette Brown, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers, Aaron Curry
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The Analysis: Orakpo was a top 10 pick in many mock drafts just after the Senior Bowl and around the combine, but he's been slowly slipping as the draft neared. Pettigrew would be an interesting pick at No. 12, but some mock drafts believe that the Bills could take him at No. 28 with their second first-round pick.
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12. Denver Broncos
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Consensus Pick: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College (7)
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Other picks: Tyson Jackson (3), Robert Ayers (3), Brian Orakpo (2), Brian Cushing, Aaron Maybin
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The Analysis: The reconstruction of the Broncos defense begins here. Notice that all 17 mock drafts have the Broncos taking a front-seven defender. Jackson was the consensus pick at this spot a month ago, but now very few experts think he'll make it this far. Raji is a pretty good consolation prize.
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13. Washington Redskins
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Consensus Pick: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi (8) |
Other picks: Brian Cushing (3), Aaron Maybin (3), Jeremy Maclin, Everette Brown, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
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The Analysis: Oher has been a likely pick at this spot for Washington since the first mock drafts started filtering out in January. There now seems little chance that Andre Smith will fall into the Redskins lap. Notice the mock that has the Redskins taking Freeman. If that happens, would the 'Skins trade Jason Campbell or have him stick around as Freeman spends a year learning from the sideline?
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14. New Orleans Saints
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Consensus Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB/FS, Ohio State (9)
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Other picks: Beanie Wells (5), Brian Cushing (3)
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The Analysis: Mock drafts have had Jenkins or Wells going in this spot for months. Jenkins fits well with the Saints because they need help at safety and corner, so if he can't hack it as a corner (and there are serious concerns about that), he projects very well as a rangy free safety. Wells needs to be hoping he goes here, as if not, he could fall several spots.
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15. Houston Texans
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Consensus Pick: Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California (6)
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Other picks: Malcom Jenkins (4), Clay Matthews (3), Aaron Maybin (3), Robert Ayers
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The Analysis: The Texans will keep throwing first-round picks at the defense until it pays off. Houston should have its pick of the Southern Cal linebackers, or it could go for another edge rusher with Maybin or Ayers.
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16. San Diego Chargers
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Consensus Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern California (4)/Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (4)
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Other picks: Michael Oher (2), Malcolm Jenkins (2), Robert Ayers (2), Beanie Wells (2), Eben Britton
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The Analysis: Count me as someone who doesn't understand why the Chargers would draft Moreno after already franchising Darren Sproles and reworking LaDainian Tomlinson's contract. If Oher could slide this far, he'd be a nice pickup, while Maualuga would be an excellent run stuffer.
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17. New York Jets
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Consensus Pick: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State (5), Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri (5)
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Other picks: Beanie Wells (2), Percy Harvin (2), Brandon Pettigrew, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Connor Barwin
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The Analysis: Nearly half of the experts believe that Maclin will be gone to the Raiders at pick No. 8, but if not, he could fall another nine spots to the Jets. Freeman would be an interesting pick for New York. He would give them a long-term answer at quarterback, but this seems to be a team built to win now, not in 2011.
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18. Denver Broncos
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Consensus Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State (4)/Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern California (4)
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Other picks: Peria Jerry (2), Knowshown Moreno (2), Tyson Jackson, Beanie Wells, Robert Ayers, Brian Cushing, Aaron Maybin
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The Analysis: Maybin is one of the wild cards of the first round, but he would be a good fit and a good value for the Broncos at No. 18. Maualuga is going to go somewhere in this mid first-round range, we just don't know exactly where.
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19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Consensus Pick: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State (7)
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Other picks: Michael Johnson (2), Peria Jerry (2), Everette Brown (2), Aaron Maybin, Evander Hood, Clay Matthews, Darrius Heyward-Bey
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The Analysis: If Tampa wants Freeman and they aren't willing to trade up, they could have an agonizing couple of hours waiting to see if he makes it past the Jets. If he doesn't, the Bucs could pick the best remaining pass rusher or big body inside. Hood is picked by most mock drafts to go later, while some mock drafts have Johnson going in the second or third round.
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| 20. Detroit Lions |
Consensus Pick: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi (6)
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Other picks: Rey Maualuga (2), Michael Oher (2), Robert Ayers, William Beatty, Everette Brown, Brandon Pettigrew, James Laurinaitis, Aaron Maybin, Eben Britton
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The Analysis: The great thing about being 0-16 is you can draft at almost any position and upgrade your talent. But Detroit's defense is in need of help, and Jerry would be a nice follow-up to the Stafford pick. If Oher falls to No. 20, it would be hard to pass him up as a long-term answer to the need to protect Matthew Stafford's blind side.
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21. Philadelphia Eagles
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Consensus Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia (7)
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Other picks: Brandon Pettigrew (3), Beanie Wells, Donald Brown, Darius Butler, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Vontae Davis, Everette Brown
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The Analysis: Moreno can run inside, catch passes out of the backfield and block. In other words, he would be a perfect compliment to Bryant Westbrook in the Eagles' backfield and useful starter for the couple of games Westbrook seems to miss every year. But the fact that four different running backs are pegged by different mock drafts to go at this spot shows how there is some disagreement about the running backs.
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22. Minnesota Vikings
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Consensus Pick: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona (7)
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Other picks: Percy Harvin (3), Vontae Davis, Alex Mack, Kenny Britt, Phil Loadholt, Jeremy Maclin, Peria Jerry, Brian Cushing
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The Analysis: Harvin was slated to go here by most mock drafts before news of his positive drug test appeared. There's still a chance the Vikings could take him, but Britton would give the team a solid replacement for disappointing right tackle Ryan Cook, adding further talent to one of the league's besdt offensive lines.
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23. New England Patriots
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No Consensus
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Other picks: Darius Butler (3), Clay Matthews (3), Vontae Davis (2), Donald Brown (2), Malcom Jenkins, Larry English, Percy Harin, Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, Connor Barwin, Brandon Pettigrew
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The Analysis: It's fitting that the Patriots are the team that no one can figure out since they are the most secretive team in the league. Not only is there no consensus on who they will pick, there's not much of a consenus on what position they will go for. Here we have two CBs, a FS/CB, all three USC LBs plus two other 3-4 OLB, a WR, a RB and a TE.
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24. Atlanta Falcons
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Consensus Pick: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri (6)
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Other picks: Brandon Pettigrew (2), Darius Butler (2), Vontae Davis, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, Alex Mack, Robert Ayers, James Laurinaitis
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The Analysis: The two Pettigrew picks are from mock drafts that were taken before the trade with the Chiefs for Tony Gonzalez. With tight end out of the way, it makes sense that the Falcons will get a much-needed interior lineman, as Hood would instantly upgrade a thin group of Falcons' defensive tackles.
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25. Miami Dolphins
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No Consensus |
Other picks: Clay Matthews (3), Robert Ayers (3), Clint Sintim (2), Darius Butler (2), Vontae Davis (2), Max Unger, Kenny Britt, Percy Harvin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Larry English
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The Analysis: No one has been able to get a good handle on what the Dolphins are going to do. But it does seem likely that the Dolphins will try to help the defense or keep trying to fix a poor wide receiver corps.
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26. Baltimore Ravens
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Consensus Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland (5)
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Other picks: Rey Maualuga (4), Vontae Davis (4), Kenny Britt (2), Percy Harvin, Brandon Pettigrew
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The Analysis: After his great combine performance, the Ravens could not have expected to have a chance to nab the draft's fastest first-round pick. But as teams focused more on Heyward-Bey's game tape, they started to worry about games in which he seemed to disappear, which means he may still be available to help a subpar Ravens' group of receivers.
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27. Indianapolis Colts
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Consensus Pick: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss (5)
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Other picks: Darrius Heyward-Bey (3), Terry Robiskie (3), Hakeem Nicks (2), Knowshown Moreno (2), Evander Hood (2)
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The Analysis: Last year the Colts went through the season with a 255-pound starting defensive tackle. Jerry would help ensure that doesn't happen again. But a lot of experts think the Colts will go out and find Marvin Harrison's replacement to ensure that the team has another wideout to go with Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.
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28. Buffalo Bills
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Consensus Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State (5) |
Other picks: Eben Britton (3), Phil Loadholt (2), William Beatty, Larry English, Robert Ayers, Everette Brown, Paul Kruger, Evander Hood, Clay Matthews
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The Analysis: Here is the gamble. There's no doubt that Pettigrew is the best tight end on the board, and Buffalo needs a tight end, but will he manage to make it all the way to No. 28 for the Bills? If he does, this would be a great value, but if he doesn't there are several quality second-round tight ends, which may give Buffalo reason to gamble.
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29. New York Giants
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Consensus Pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina (5)
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Other picks: Wesley Britt (4), Clay Matthews (2), Terry Robiskie (2), Alphonso Smith, Knowshown Moreno, Larry English, Shaun Nelson
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The Analysis: The Giants saw last year what happened to the offense as soon as Plaxico Burress was suspended, so they know they need a quality big receiver. Nicks is more NFL ready than most, which is why he's a likely pick, although he doesn't have the deep speed Burress has to stretch the field and draw consistent double coverage.
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30. Tennessee Titans
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Consensus Pick: Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut (4)
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Other picks: Alphonso Smith (2), Evander Hood (2), Vontae Davis (2), Percy Harvin (2), Hakeem Nicks, Max Unger, Shaun Smith, Robert Ayers, James Laurinaitis
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The Analysis: Tennessee doesn't have any glaring holes for 2009, except for wide receiver, which allows them to have the luxury of planning for the long-term. Butler would be a nickel back right away, but should be a solid replacement for aging corner Nick Harper before too long. If so, the Titans already strong secondary could get even tougher in the years ahead.
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31. Arizona Cardinals
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Consensus Pick: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut (8)
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Other picks: Beanie Wells (4), Knowshown Moreno, Everette Brown, Clay Matthews, Michael Johnson, Clint Sintim
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The Analysis: Conventional wisdom all along has had the Cardinals taking the best available running back to help fix the one big offensive weakness. Brown looks to be the best left, although some scenarios have Beanie Wells falling all the way to No. 31, which would be great news for Arizona.
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32. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Consensus Pick: Alex Mack, C, California (5)
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Other picks: Eric Wood (4), Max Unger (4), Phil Loadholt, Jarron Gilbert, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler
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The Analysis: In 13 of the 17 mock drafts, the Steelers will take a center. The only question is which of the three top centers will the Steelers take? If all three are still on the board, it will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh trades down a little bit, knowing that they are likely to land one of the three several picks into the second round.
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