Matthew Stafford's Pro Day Doesn't Change Many Minds

Four years ago this April, Aaron Rodgers spent nearly six hours inside Radio City Musical Hall waiting to hear Paul Tagliabue call his name. The former Cal star was considered one of the two best quarterbacks of the 2005 draft -- Utah's Alex Smith was the other -- but the pre-draft speculation had him going anywhere from first-overall to the bottom third of the first round.

The latter turned out to be the case -- the 49ers and first-year head coach Mike Nolan, with the top pick, tied their future to Alex Smith (the decision would inevitably cost Nolan his job) -- and history could repeat itself next month.

Georgia's Matthew Stafford is the consensus No. 1 quarterback, but the one-time no-brainer for the Lions -- selecting first overall -- is now anything but. Partly because an 0-16 team has myriad needs, but also because draft analysts have had several weeks to scrutinize every one of Stafford's collegiate snaps, and while his athleticism is undeniable, there are questions about his decision making.

Thursday was Stafford's pro day, his last best chance to impress would-be employers, and the verdict is ... well, pretty much what it was coming into the day.

Via NFL.com's Gil Brandt:

While Stafford ... chose to stand on his combine numbers, he did throw 50 passes in a scripted workout that was run at a quick pace. My sources on the ground in Athens all agreed that of the 50 passes, only three weren't thrown with accuracy. Stafford rolled out, threw deep comebacks ... he threw everything. Unlike the quarterbacks who threw at the combine, Stafford had the benefit of throwing to some of his former Georgie teammates. ...

What did I learn from Stafford's workout? That I wouldn't be worried if I were the Lions about taking him with the No. 1 pick.

If Stafford has one fault, it's that he throws the ball a lot like Brett Favre. Because he has such a strong arm and is such a great athlete, Stafford takes chances on throws that he shouldn't attempt. It's not because he doesn't understand coverages; it's just that he has superior confidence in his arm and ability. That's a fault that can be corrected.

As Burke wrote yesterday, if the Lions pass, Stafford could take a Rodgers-ian tumble down the draft board. And while that might initially cost him tens of millions of dollars, there are worse fates. Like, say, getting drafted by the 49ers, a team that hasn't been to the postseason since 2002, instead of the Packers, a team that had made four consecutive playoff appearances prior to taking Rodgers.