When it comes to projecting which teams will receive compensatory picks, AdamJT13 is Mel Kiper, Jay Glazer and Adam Schefter rolled into one.So now that his predictions for the 2009 compensatory picks are out, it's worth paying attention. The actual picks were be announced in less than two weeks, but considering AdamJT13's success at predicting the picks, this is a pretty good benchmark of which teams will have reasons to be happy.
The Patriots, Steelers and Bengals are predicted to the only three teams to receive third-round picks, although he notes that since several teams fell right on the line between third and fourth-round comp picks, it's possible that the Steelers and Patriots will get the only two third-round picks or as many as six teams (with the Bears, Giants and Chargers joining in) could get third round picks if the NFL is feeling generous. The Patriots will likely end up with three extra picks to go with the nine picks they already have. That makes it likely that the Patriots will be looking to deal some of their non comp picks (which can't be traded) as it's hard to see 12 draft picks making New England's roster.
And if you're wondering how valuable compensatory picks can be, just take a look back to 2005 when Leroy Hill, Nick Kaczur, Dustin Colquitt and Dominique Foxworth were all compensatory picks.
With AdamJT13's permission as he explained at his blog, here are his projections, pick by pick.
THIRD ROUND
New England (Asante Samuel, $9.3567 million per season, 15 GP/15 GS, Pro Bowl)
Pittsburgh (Alan Faneca, $7.8 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Cincinnati (Justin Smith, $7 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick
FOURTH ROUND
Chicago (Bernard Berrian, $6.9 million, 16/13) – possibly a third-round pick
N.Y. Giants (Gibril Wilson, $6.5008 million, 16/15) – possibly a third-round pick
San Diego (Michael Turner, $5.75 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) – possibly a third-round pick
San Diego (Drayton Florence, $5.9333 million, 15/8)
Tennessee (Antwan Odom, $5.9 million, 12/8)
Indianapolis (Jake Scott, $4.8 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth-round pick
FIFTH ROUND
San Francisco (Kwame Harris, $4.6667 million, 14/11)
New England (Donte Stallworth, $4.5393 million, 11/7)
Dallas (Jacques Reeves, $4 million, 16/16) – possibly a sixth-round pick
Tennessee (Travis LaBoy, $4.4 million, 13/12) – possibly a sixth-round pick
SIXTH ROUND
Tennessee (Randy Starks, $3.885 million, 16/4)
New England (Randall Gay, $3.3125 million, 14/13)
Dallas (Julius Jones, $2.9 million, 15/10)
Cincinnati (Landon Johnson, $2.733 million, 15/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick
San Francisco (Marques Douglas, $2.525 million, 16/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick
SEVENTH ROUND
Tennessee (Ben Hartsock, $2.25 million, 11/11)
Washington (Mark Brunell, $1.755 million, 2/0)
Seattle (Chuck Darby, $1.467 million, 15/15)
Seattle (Ellis Wyms, $1.4 million, 16/0)
Chicago (John Gilmore, $1.333 million, 16/10)
Seattle (Kevin Bentley, $1.3 million, 16/7)
Chicago (Brendon Ayanbadejo, $1.223 million, 16/0, Pro Bowl)
Cincinnati (Bryan Robinson, $1.2125 million, 16/15)
Seattle (D.J. Hackett, $1.2 million, 9/2)
Jacksonville (Terry Cousin, $1.115 million, 16/0)
Detroit (net-value comp pick, lost three for $10.721 million, 38/22; signed three for $7.134 million, 42/31)
Arizona (net-value comp pick, lost three for $9.45 million, 46/42; signed three for $6.9625 million, 40/27)
Detroit (non-compensatory pick)
Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)
