In early 2004, the Cardinals were fresh off another disappointing season. Journeyman quarterback Jeff Blake had proven to be nothing more than that, Marcel Shipp wasn't even a replacement-level running back, and a rookie wideout named Anquan Boldin was about the only bright spot in an otherwise dismal situation. Denny Green was hired to fix all that. So it was with some surprise that the Cardinals, a team with needs at every position except wide receiver -- and particularly at quarterback -- would use the third-overall pick to select Larry Fitzgerald.
Actually, by draft day 2004, it was clear that Fitzgerald was Green's guy. As former Raiders executive Mike Lombardi told CBSSports.com's Clark Judge last week, "[W]ith Denny Green's relationship with the kid (Fitzgerald) and with his history of success with Randy Moss in Minnesota it was fairly easy to see what he would do..."
One thing those Randy Moss Vikings had that the Cardinals didn't: a quarterback. But Green thought he could turn Josh McCown into something other than what he was: a solid NFL backup but not much more. It didn't happen. And when Arizona managed to win just 11 games in Green's first two seasons -- despite impressive numbers from Fitzgerald -- anyone with just a passing interest in football could figure out that the Cardinals might've been better off taking a quarterback during the 2004 draft. Even though, as it turned out, the guy who would lead them to the Super Bowl was already on the roster.
The Chargers had selected Eli Manning first overall, and the Giants would take Philip Rivers three picks later. Which means -- all else equal -- Arizona could've had either Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger (or because they're the Cards and it probably would've seemed like a swell idea at the time: J.P. Losman). In theory, it's much easier to build around a franchise quarterback than, say, a possible Hall of Fame wide receiver, but that assumes you're able to land said franchise quarterback.
After missing out on two of them in '04, Arizona thought they had found redemption two years later. Matt Leinart was taken with the 10th overall pick of the 2006 draft and he immediately showed promise during his first NFL season (11 starts, 11 TDs, 12 INTs). That would be the highlight of his three-year career. Ken Whisenhunt replaced Green that spring, and Kurt Warner would eventually land the full-time gig after Leinart stumbled through the first half of '07. Long story short: that was that.
The Cardinals finished last season 8-8, won seven of 10 to start 2008, and after coasting through December, went on a January playoff tear that now have them playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
It's a remarkable story, but how might things have been different had Arizona taken Roethlisberger with the third-overall pick in '04? Yes, Big Ben is one of the league's best quarterbacks, and he won a Super Bowl in his second NFL season, but sometimes hindsight isn't 20/20. His situation was unique.
Due to luck and circumstance, he fell in the Steelers' laps. Pittsburgh was coming off a six-win campaign, but it was virtually the same roster that had won 10 and 13 games in the previous two seasons. After Tommy Maddox was injured in a Week 2 loss to the Ravens, rookie Roethlisberger was forced into duty. All he did was game-manage the Steelers to 13 consecutive wins and a 15-1 record. While Big Ben was spectacular at times, he was also very good at doing his job. It sounds mundane enough, but it's the little things that rookie quarterbacks struggle with most. And during that first season for Roethlisberger, the little things didn't catch up to him until the AFC Championship game.
But even the most optimistic observer would have to admit that Big Ben wouldn't have had that success in Arizona. Who knows, maybe he would've suffered Leinart's fate and found himself on the bench. Or maybe he'd still be the Cardinals' starter, but he would be playing in an offense without Fitzgerald and on a team still searching for its first postseason birth. From the perspective of January 2009, there's no reason to think that the Cards should've taken Roethlisberger over Fitzgerald, even if most people thought it to be a no-brainer in the weeks and months leading up to the '04 draft.
Judge puts it best in his CBSSports.com column:
So by taking Fitzgerald with the first pick, the Cardinals made this Super Bowl possible for both sides. First, they opened the door to Warner by not taking a quarterback with the third pick, which made Arizona an option when he exited the Giants. Second, they left Roethlisberger on the board for Pittsburgh.Which is another way of saying: the draft is a crap shoot. And for most of us, that's what makes it fun. When the Cards selected Leinart in 2006, nobody expected that it would be Warner leading them to the Super Bowl three years later. And if Arizona had taken Roethlisberger over Fitzgerald, who knows, maybe Tommy Maddox might still be wreaking havoc all over Heinz Field. And we most certainly wouldn't be having this conversation.
