The Super Bowl Prop Bet 13 Step Program: Step Four, Back in Time

Super Bowl Prop Bets are as American as your mother and as addicting as, um, stuff. Will Brinson's got a program for your all-American fix.

For the remaining few days until the Super Bowl, I'm going to be gathering prop bet stories from around the blogosphere (and you, if you're interested, so e-mail me if you've got a funny one).

Now that we've covered that, obvious apologies are due for the tardiness of this (because we're actually on Day Five -- coming soon also). But you know how life as a blogger is -- wake up, look at your pants lying crumpled on the bed, laugh at them, play some Sega Genesis, laugh at your pants again, get in your desk chair and start cranking out the snark. Tough.

But since I couldn't jump into the Delorean and transport myself back to yesterday, de-pants myself and get this entry in on time, I figured we could do the next best thing: gamble on some historical matchups. No, it's not as easy as finding a sports almanac, but it's awesome fun because it's totally confusing and definitely needs to be written down somewhere so you don't forget.

And for Super Bowl XLIII, historical matchups are especially fun because there's so much SB history with the Steelers and the Cardinals Kurt Warner. Speaking of whom ...

Historical Matchup: Total Passing Yards Warner SB XXXIV (415) v. Warner SB XLIII
Kurt Warner SB XXIV -148.5 yards
Kurt Warner SB XLIII +148.5 yards

Or, put simply, do you think that Warner will throw for 266.5 yards against the Steelers this year. That's actually a pretty great line -- 266.5 seems really, really low for Warner, obviously, but this Steelers team is decent at defense. Personally, I'll take the free 150 yards and just hope that he can get to 275. An early Steelers lead is still good, and do you really want to watch Warner light Pittsburgh up knowing you're throwing money down a toilet? Of course not.

You can also make this bet against Warner's performance in Super Bowl XXXVI, but you only get spotted 99.5 yards because he threw for 365 in that game. And actually, the second one is the way to go, since you get a free yard, apparently (if my math is right; it could very well be horribly wrong).

Ben Roethlisberger gets the same treatment for this game, although his numbers are a little different. You may recall that this "game manager" didn't exactly light up the Seahawks when the Steelers won.

Historical Matchup: Total Passing Yards R-Berger SB XL (123) v. R-Berger SB XLIII
Ben Roethlisberger SB XL +96.5 yards
Ben Roethlisberger SB XLIII -96.5 yards

So, again math majors, what we're looking at is a total of 219.5 yards for "Ben" in the Super Bowl. I like the respect that the Cardinals' pass defense is getting here, but frankly, there's no way I can take the under on a 220-yard passing game. Willie Parker is playing, sure, and Hines Ward is going to be testy, but one long bomb to Santonio Holmes and you don't stand a chance. I think R-Berger gets at least one.

So, there you have it -- a quick lesson in historical viewpoint when it comes to gambling. And remember, whenever you time travel, always take the over.