This Sunday at 6:30PM EST the Steelers will host the Ravens in the conference championship game. It'll be the third meeting this year between AFC North rivals, the two previous get-togethers going to Pittsburgh.
Which means Baltimore's ticket to the Super Bowl is all but punched. Because, as everyone's well aware, it's virtually impossible to beat a team three times in one season. Plus, when the media beat you about the head with such sentiments, they must be true. Even though, you know, they're not.
An eagle-eyed reader points out this Jan. 2008 AP story that debunks the conventional wisdom that teams struggle to beat opponents three times in the same season.
Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been 18 times when a team went into a playoff game with a chance to complete a three-game season sweep, according to STATS, Inc. Those teams are 11-7.There's even a visual aid.
Interestingly, the Cowboys make the list twice, losing Round 3 to the Cardinals in 1998 and the Giants last year. Somehow I imagine that this is God's way of punishing Jerry Jones.
As for Sunday's matchup, there's certainly the very real possibility the Ravens prevail; they feature arguably the league's best defense, and as long as Joe Flacco, Game Manager, manages the game, it should be close. In fact, the brainiac's at AccuScore fired up the punch-card machine and after 10,000 simulations, have the Steelers winning 65 percent of the time, but only by an average score of 19.6 to 15.1.
No word on how the outcome changes once you factor in the "no way anybody wins three in a row" variable.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-12-2009 @ 6:55PM
Paul Cooper said...
The Steelers beat the Belichick coached, Testeverde led Browns 3 times in one season (94-95 IIRC, and in the playoff game Darren Perry seemed be Testeverde's favourite target) so hopefully we can repeat that again.
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1-12-2009 @ 8:45PM
BlueStarDude said...
Hi Ryan --
Do you think it was just a coincidence that Doug over at Pro Football Reference tackled this same issue a good five days before the AP reporter did?
Link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=458
On one hand it is the kind of thing a number of different people might think to research; on the other hand, the timing of the AP report does at least raise an eyebrow.
P.S. I just remember reading the PFR post last year and thinking how great that was for Dallas because I had been worried about playing a division rival we had beaten twice already. Ha, dang Giants, I had reason to be worried!
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1-13-2009 @ 9:22AM
ryan said...
BSD,
Great find. And great question, too. At the very least, you'd think the AP might throw a link PFR's way for going through the trouble of putting together the table. Assuming, of course, that they didn't come up with the idea simultaneously.
1-12-2009 @ 9:42PM
Hamer said...
In fact, the Steelers beat the Browns 3 times in one season, two times! First in 94-95 and then the "new" Browns again in 02-03!
The most memorable 3 game sweep IMO, is when the Titans did it to the Jaguars in 99 - and those were the only games the Jags lost ALL year. (Tenn went on to the superbowl)...
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1-13-2009 @ 5:47PM
G-man said...
You watch. The Steelers will once again prevail. The may not be the greatest, but the can and will beat you, at their own will ! I say , Bring it on Ravens !
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1-13-2009 @ 6:25PM
Ray said...
Remember the '78 and '79 seasons when the AFC title game was between the "Stillers" and the "Oilers, 6 games and 6 Steeler wins, prompting Houston head coach, Bum Phillips to comment, "the road to the superbowl goes through Pittsburgh.
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1-13-2009 @ 8:16PM
Cliff Burris said...
"We mentioned in passing on Sunday the connection between referee Walt Coleman’s stunning replay reversal that delivered a win to the Steelers and the infamous “tuck rule” ruling from nearly seven years ago.In both cases, Coleman made the criticial decision."
Hey, with this referee on your side Pittsburgh, you could beat another team 50 times a season. He stole the game from the Raiders in the 2001 playoffs and he gave you a win in Baltimore this year. The Steelers should have presented him with the game ball.
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1-15-2009 @ 1:37PM
Pat williams said...
Just like the refs gave you the win against Tennessee last week, by not calling the delay of game with 3 min left in the game.
We don't need the REFS to help us BEAT the ravens. Remember 3rd times a CHARM. And the charm we want is called the 6th SUPERBOWL RING.
1-13-2009 @ 8:22PM
Cliff Burris said...
In both cases, Coleman made the criticial decision.
1-Gave away a Raider's win in the 2001 playoff.
2- Gave the Steelers a win in Baltimore in 2008.
With Walt Coleman on Pittsburgh's team, they could beat the Ravens 50 straight times in a season!!!
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1-14-2009 @ 6:49AM
Thatsabsurd said...
Grow some balls and stop blaming your sister for everything.
Your mommy is tired of your crying .
1-17-2009 @ 5:09PM
rmmounties said...
cliff burris we can beat the ravens without refrees help we did it twice and third coming up.if ravens would have got delay of game they mjght not even be playing this game .so talk about help from ref looks like the baltimorons got some..so sit back quit whinning and watch the steelers take you dowm
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