The Once-Over: Week 16

With attention spans dwindling, we forego full game-by-game previews to give you the essentials you need to know about every contest this glorious NFL weekend. Click here to go back in time.

Saturday

Baltimore (9-5) at Dallas (9-5): This is just the start of what should be now called "The Best Week 15 Slate of Games of All Time." Both these teams desperately need a win for playoff implications, with the Steelers, Eagles, and Falcons all watching verrrry intently in their own regard. Tony Romo and company are averaging 23.7 points per game while Ray Lewis and his revived wrecking crew are giving up a stingy 15.2. In the famous words of Jack Nicholson, "Something's gotta give." I think the Dallas defense, who has locked down the last three games and is allowing just over 12 points in those games, rattles Joe Flacco and the 'Boys move a step closer to becoming the 2007 New York Giants of the playoffs.

Tony, remember this -- even Phil Mickelson can win a major championship every now and again.

Pick: Dallas

The 1s

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10): The lady that cut my hair yesterday told me she was a Cleveland Browns fan. I asked her if she watched a lot of their games. She said she hasn't watch a game this year. For some odd reason I hope the trend continues.

Pick: Cincinnati

New Orleans (7-7) at Detroit (0-14): So this is the game the Lions are supposed to win, right? Everyone keeps banking on this "they have to win one game, right?" theory (that I even adopted last week). What I realized as the Colts drove calmly down the field and scored is this -- why do we all assume Detroit deserves a victory? You really think Travis Fisher and Leigh Bodden, who have combined for one interception all season at cornerback, are intimidating Drew Brees? The guy was on pace to break Dan Marino's passing record for 13 weeks!

I guess my argument is: if the Patriots can waltz through the regular season without losing a game, who is to say the Lions are destined for a victory? I really don't think the Matt Millen Era would be totally justified unless he got fired the season Detroit went winless. It just makes sense.

Pick: New Orleans

Miami (9-5) at Kansas City (2-12): Did you know that the Dolphins, who have won seven of their last eight games, have faced opponents over that stretch with a combined record of 42-70? Tack on the Chiefs this week, who are 2-12, and you may be looking at the weakest schedule in football. I'm not saying this isn't a good story or the turnout hasn't been remarkable, I just can't really get excited about a Dolphins team that has beat one team with a winning record since October 19, and that was the Broncos (8-6).

Pick: Miami

Arizona (8-6) at New England (9-5): Three years ago, if I made a bet with you that of the two Matts, Cassel would be the more successful USC product, how fast would it have taken you to get that straight jacket all the way around my body? Six seconds? A minute? Would you have just knocked me out?

Pick: New England

San Francisco (5-9) at St. Louis (2-12): Basically, since there are so many good games this week, you're going to get a few stinkers like this one.

The one aspect of this game that does intrigue me is watching Shaun Hill again. Really, he hasn't been that bad taking over at quarterback for the 49ers. His passer rating is 91.8, he's thrown 10 TDs against only four interceptions, and he has yet to get called out by Mike Singletary. Speaking of Mike, if you haven't seen this video of David Letterman talking to Singletary, it is worth watching, just for pure obscurity. Why is the guy saying his lines before Mike can spit them out? I don't get it!

Pittsburgh (11-3) at Tennessee (12-2): Here is the one-seed game, in all its glory. Win here and you'll be hosting as many playoff games as you can win. I know the two teams are driven by their defenses, but I think you always look at the quarterbacks when you have two monster teams like this facing off. Last week Ben Roethlisberger quietly outperformed Flacco, and I see him doing the same here against Kerry Collins.

I am fairly critical of Big Ben around these parts, but I have to give the man credit. Since the Colts three interception debacle, Roethlisberger has tossed five touchdowns to only one interception during the team's five-game winning streak. We know what he can do when he needs to, and we are seeing what Collins does when the Titans need him as well. Against the feisty Texans, the game was going to be won or lost in the air, and Collins couldn't produce.

Pick: Pittsburgh

San Diego (6-8) at Tampa Bay (9-5): If the Bucs win here, put everything you own on the Bills against the Broncos. Honestly, bet the farm (but if you lose I will not be paying you back. Sorry.)

Pick: San Diego

The 4s

Buffalo (6-8) at Denver (8-6): So, the Bills decided to go with Trent Edwards over J.P. Losman. Really? I'm super surprised. Losman only had three interceptions and a fumble against a Jets team that looked about as ready for football as I do for a marathon at this point. I am convinced that if Trent couldn't have gone, Gibran Hamdan would have been introducing himself to Denver Broncos defense.

Pick: Denver

Houston (7-7) at Oakland (3-11): I'm blaming this season on Hurricane Ike. Damn you Ike! The Texans are good! Matt Schaub is good! Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton and Kevin Walter are good!! Mario Williams is the best pick in the history of the NFL draft! The Texans have won four straight and are two non-chokes against easy teams away from ending the season 9-7 after losing their first four! I bet a home game before Week 5 would have helped their early chances of doing something. Oh well, at least Slaton will win Rookie of the Year.

Pick: Houston

NY Jets (9-5) at Seattle (3-11): Here is something interesting: Seneca Wallace, starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, has a better passer rating in 2008 than Brett Favre. Also, Wallace has only thrown one interception in six games he started, while Favre has thrown 17 in his 14 games. Not to harp on Favre, but if Losman hadn't decided to scramble last week when the Jets couldn't stop Marshawn Lynch with Sarin Gas, New York would be 0-3 the last three weeks, mostly because of the gunslinger.

Pick: Seattle

Atlanta (9-5) at Minnesota (9-5): These games just keep getting better and better. Minnesota has won four straight, with the last coming off the arm of Tarvaris Jackson (!), so you know things are rolling for the Vikes. As much as a I hate the split back thing for fantasy purposes, I believe the Vikings play Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor the best. It seems that anytime Taylor comes in he is revved up and busts off one of those eight-yard runs, giving AP a few minutes to catch his breath. Neither player seem that bothered by sharing time and it equates to the best backfield in the league.

Also, Matt Ryan, can you please have another good game so everyone stops calling me a Ryan Homer? Thanks buddy.

Pick: Atlanta

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7): Since it looks like the Eagles could miss the playoffs because of that horrible tie, I'm coining the 2008 Philadelphia Eagles season "-1." I think it is only appropriate.

Pick: Philadelphia

SNF

Carolina (11-3) at NY Giants (11-3): No offense to Steelers-Titans, but this is the game of the week. I also think this settles that whole "which division in the NFC is better" argument that was brought up in the Thursday night chat. If Carolina wins here, the sirens and red lights have to start flashing in New York, don't they? The Giants are nearing panic mode and desperately need a victory to right the ship. Too bad they have DeAngelo Williams this week, who will be carrying that "Oh, you boys don't think I deserve a Pro Bowl nod even though I'm fourth in rushing in the NFL and have scored 12 touchdowns in my last seven games on just 224 carries, 100 less than Peterson?" chip on his shoulder.

Also, Brandon Jacobs is still listed as questionable.

Pick: Carolina

MNF

Green Bay (5-9) at Chicago (8-6): Disgruntled Packers fan Bruce Ciskie of FanHouse was kind enough to preview this game. He was actually calm. I'm proud of him.

"Let's see. One team insists on practicing inside, even when they're about to play a game outside in cold weather. The other team understands that there is an adjustment to playing in cold weather, and they practice outside as part of their preparation for the game. Not that it matters. The Bears are just a far superior team at this point.

The home side in this one is trying to avenge a 37-3 loss, and I don't think they're going to encounter a lot of problems. A competitive game is certainly possible, but the Packers are clearly not playing to their abilities. It's not something that fixes itself overnight. We're looking at a long offseason in Green Bay. The only question is if they can avoid a 5-11 disaster by beating the Lions next weekend."

Pick: Chicago