I was talking to FanHouse Head of Zebra Accountability, Matt Snyder, when the Bucs took a 20-10 lead over the Saints with plenty of time left in the third quarter of today's eventual 23-20 Tampa win. To me the game was, for all intents and purposes, over at that point, though Snyder raised the reasonable, logical point that there was plenty of time for one of the league's elite offenses to erase a 10-point deficit.With most teams, a lead like that with so much time left is practically irrelevant. With powerhouses like the Giants, Patriots, or Colts, you could stick them with a 10-point deficit with less than five minutes left and I still wouldn't close the book on the game. Yet in Sean Payton's three years, the Saints have displayed an inability to overcome adversity. Today's game was just the same ole song and dance for Saints fans who have been able to mark wins and losses in ink by halftime.
Say what you will about Aaron Brooks (and I've said plenty, most of which is not suitable for this space), but he had 16 fourth-quarter comebacks in his career in New Orleans, including five in 2004. Under the Payton/Drew Brees regime, the Saints are a mind-boggling 0-17 when trailing after three quarters. Though Brees is greatly responsible for this one particular loss, he's also orchestrated 12 late-game comebacks in San Diego, so I tend to believe the onus falls on Payton.
For one, at least those Chargers had balance on offense. The Saints have a weak power running game and no desire to keep with it even when it is working. Deuce McAllister showed strong legs in running for 4.3 yards per carry today, but only got three chances all game long despite the score never getting out of hand. In fact, the team only rushed it 18 times total (17 if you exclude a dumb fourth-down end-around to Devery Henderson that lost three yards). This, on a very rainy day in Tampa that featured over 25-mile-per-hour winds.
For another, those Chargers had a defense that struck fear in its opponents instead of its fans. While the Saints have been better recently on that side of the ball, it's still a problem. The team doesn't have the tenacity to stop opponents when they get into run mode.
Payton has done a great job with personnel -- this team is almost ridiculously talented, far too talented to routinely hover around .500. But a team feeds off of its coach, and Payton's audacious decision-making is less ballsy than it is insecure; he's had to replace the panic button on the sideline because of overuse. So when push comes to shove, the Saints don't have a steely resolve to mimic, and they're outwilled by teams as much as outplayed -- the resulting back-breakers, like today's game-ending interception, are mental.
I've been a Sean Payton supporter, but today's game was the turning point in a slow realization process for me. While the 2006 season was one of my favorites as a sports fan, while I am grateful Payton brought Brees to New Orleans and made the team relevant again, while I admit that he fields an incredibly entertaining team, what I want most is a Super Bowl. And it's starting to dawn on me that the team needs another leader to realize the incredible potential Payton has put together with this group (think Jon Gruden taking over the Bucs).
But that's not going to happen this offseason. The Saints are notoriously loyal to their coaches, and Payton just inked an extension through 2012 that was rumored to make him one of the top five highest-paid coaches in the league. Bailing out on that now would be pricey from a financial and public relations standpoint. But the team made a concerted effort to beef up their roster this year, and they did so at the expense of their future salary cap and 2009 draft. Luckily, they'll have what looks like a top-15 pick in the draft, but after the first round, selections will be sparse. This is Payton's team, its performance is on him.
This team's window to win a championship is still open for a couple of years, but it can't afford to throw away campaigns like this one (four losses by less than a touchdown so far) because they don't have the gravitas to impose their will on opponents. For better or worse, that change needs to come from Payton first.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-30-2008 @ 7:44PM
gfitz said...
saints fan i,am and not proud of it.they lack any identity nor any discipline on defense,inconsistent the whole year.i know injuries have plague the saints defense but i believe personelll changes is not the problem its the style of defense and lack of team work and the responsibility soley falls on the defensive coorinator and the head coach.The inability to adjust to your opponents aggression and change your game plan sucks.They lack any real leader on the team.The top offense in the NFL at the bottom of their respected division,its very sad for a pro team.
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11-30-2008 @ 8:56PM
Dave said...
I am sorry, but your logic is pretty weak. This of course does not imply that what you state is false or true. It just means the case you make could use a lot more supporting evidence.
The only teams that give up as many or more points as the Saints that are in the playoff hunt are the Cardinals and Broncos, both whom rank number two and three respectively after the Saints in passing YPG.
I wouldn't expect the Saints to have a strong power running game (and corresponding personnel to facilitate it) with as much money as they have invested in:
A) A top QB and
B.) a finesse/speed back that still does not effectively run in between the tackles
Also, a power back that is oft-injured.
Mind you, their defense does rank in the bottom third, in PPG given up\ and the NFL has, like all other contact sports, shifted towards rules favorable towards offense, especially reduced injury-inducing hits on QB's, physicality on WR's and leniency on allowing WR's to push off. I suppose the last appears to be more pronounced with the pairing of the former two.
As for Payton having holes in his overall coaching, simply stating A because of B, C, and D. is far too simplistic.
You are saying that because they make mistakes down the stretch, are 0-17 when trailing after three quarters, and do not stick to the running game, that inherently makes him a bad coach. I'm not buying it because you are not doing a very good sell job...yet.
I do think your strongest point is the lack of fourth quarter comeback wins.
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11-30-2008 @ 10:35PM
Abnwolf said...
The Saints suck! One playoff win in nearly forty years!
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12-01-2008 @ 12:51AM
hakimdropstheball said...
Actually, that's TWO playoff wins, sucka!
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12-01-2008 @ 1:33AM
Russ said...
I agree with you on some points. I Think Payton is a good coach on some aspects. That being said, he has lost us at least 4 games this year. Kicking lost us 2. There is no reason on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 that we run a toss or a reverse. That means your back has to get 6 - 7 yards instead of 1 - 2. Not running Deuce or even Thomas more is crazy. I like Bush, but dread every time he is in the line-up. He can be a great player, but Payton uses him wrong. If I have to see him on an inside hand-off one more time, I am going to choke Payton through the TV. I don't mind having the number 1 passing offense in the league, but you still need to be able to run the ball. Once I heard that the forecast called for rain, I knew the game was over. Outdoors in the rain is the best way to stop a passing team. If you can't run North and South in this league, you can win outdoors. They need a running game to take some pressure off of Brees. That was evident today. He is trying to carry the whole team everyday. Usually he knows he has to put up 50 points because his defense can't stop my grandmother. I have to give them their due, they have played well on defense the last game and 1/2. They had plenty of chances to win today, but Payton's poor play calls and lack of trust in Deuce and Thomas cost us our last chance (more than likely) at the play-offs this year.
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12-01-2008 @ 8:37AM
Bobby said...
Coaching & player fundamentals are at an all time low as far as I'm concerned this yr.
Example: Minn.-Chic. Sunday night game. 1st & goal for the Bears from the Minn. one. I think it was play action but the pass wasn't even close in the end zone. From there I knew the next play call would be a conservative run play & it got stuffed. Third down right up the middle into the meat of the defense, stuffed again. Fourth down, same scenario & Minn. takes over & calmly throws a 99 yd. pass out of their own end zone. GAME OVER!
Instead of 14-3 Bears, it's 10-7 Minn.
I was asking myself while watching the game, "why not sneak it over"? You can't lose any yardage on a QB sneak & sure as hell before half Minn. got the ball once again on Chic's one & Frerotte sneaked it over from the one! Honestly, do you ever see a team make a TD from the one without total drama? It looks like choreographed bullshit.
Look at the clips from the Steelers-Pats game to see an illustration of "how many balls you can drop during a game"?
Stupid coaches & players not playing fundamentally make for bad games & raise suspicions why noone ever comments or notices this is going on.... I see better decision making on the high school level.
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