Playoff Push: Colts Have Complicated Things

At one point, Indianapolis appeared to be on the brink of playoff elimination. Sitting at 3-4 after back-to-back losses, facing a game at Pittsburgh preceded by a visit from New England, the Colts faced a legit shot of being 3-6 and just about dead.

Four weeks later, that is no longer the case. Indianapolis held off New England in Week 9, then stole a win in Pittsburgh the next week. The Colts then added tight wins over Houston and at San Diego. Suddenly, Peyton's posse is 7-4 and a serious threat virtual lock to make the postseason.

With a bunch of teams either 6-5 or 7-4 in the AFC, that seems like a bold statement - but Indianapolis is in Cleveland this week, then hosts Cincinnati and Detroit. An easier three-game stretch, you will not find.

That trip into the Dawg Pound is a potential trap. If the Colts survive Cleveland, though, they'll be 10-4 and on a seven-game win streak when they visit Jacksonville in Week 16.

What this means for the rest of the AFC playoff contenders is that the stakes are higher now. Before, it looked like 10 wins would be enough to get in - that's no longer a lock. At one point, the AFC East seemed a threat to get three teams to the dance - now, the division will fight just to send two.

Miami, 6-5, has just one home game remaining, and divisional foe Buffalo faces a tough climb back into things. New England, meanwhile, is 7-4 and hosts Pittsburgh this week and will likely be favored in every game the rest of the way.

That means that Baltimore could be the odd team out. After traveling to Cincinnati this weekend, the Ravens play Washington, Pittsburgh and Dallas in succession. Anything less than 2-1 there, and the party's over in Baltimore.



Explaining the positions of: The NFC South

Carolina and Tampa Bay, both 8-3, failed to climb into the "Sittin' Pretty" realm this week - the Panthers actually dropping out of that category after their loss to Atlanta.

One of those two teams will probably win the NFC South, and with Tampa Bay visiting Carolina next week, Carolina might have the inside edge. Still, the Panthers face games at Green Bay, the Giants and New Orleans, in addition to hosting the Bucs and Broncos. Tampa, meanwhile, hosts the Saints this week, then hits Carolina and Atlanta in succession.

There's a very good chance both of those clubs get to the postseason, but neither is a sure thing yet.

Show us what you're made of: Washington

Even at 7-4, tied with Dallas for second in the NFC, and currently holding the final wild-card spot due to tiebreakers, the Redskins are still a mystery. They're struggling at home and, unless anyone was impressed with Washington's escape in Seattle, not looking much better on the road right now.

Beat the Giants this week, and a 12-4 finish does not look ridiculous. Lose, though, and they're probably behind Dallas, either Tampa Bay or Carolina, and maybe Atlanta in the wild-card chase with four weeks left.

One foot in the ground: Green Bay

There is not a game on the Packers' remaining schedule that isn't winnable for them. The problem is, with the way this team has played, there isn't a game that is a lock, either - and yes, I'm including the Lions' visit to Lambeau in Week 17.

Time to wake up: Arizona

I know the Cardinals are going to the playoffs as a division champion. I just don't get a good vibe from them - I get more the "Maybe win in the first round, but probably get slaughtered in the second round" sort of vibe. Arizona is struggling to beat elite teams, very average away from home, and showing defensive gaps.

A loss in Philly on Thanksgiving won't do much to the Cardinals' NFC West chances, but it will further the thinking that this team is destined for a grisly playoff death.

And Finally ... Five Games on the Playoff Radar :

1. Tennessee (10-1) at Detroit (0-11): No, just kidding.
1a. Carolina (8-3) at Green Bay (5-6): Two teams with very different records that have had very different seasons. Still, if Green Bay wins this game, the Panthers may wind up at home in January while the Packers play on.
2. New Orleans (6-5) at Tampa Bay (8-3): Yeah, the win over Green Bay on Monday was nice, but New Orleans is still 1-3 on the road and will be essentially out of the playoff race with a loss here. The Bucs, meanwhile, want to hold on to that precarious top spot in the NFC South.
3. Pittsburgh (8-3) at New England (7-4): I keep saying I think Baltimore will eventually be on the outside looking in for the playoffs - but they're just one game back of the Steelers, with a Pittsburgh at Baltimore showdown looming. The Pats put their hands on the throat of a wild-card spot with a win here.
4. Chicago (6-5) at Minnesota (6-5): This is huuuuuuuuuuge in the NFC North. Green Bay still visits Chicago in December, but the winner here is without a doubt the favorite to win that division.
5. New York Giants (10-1) at Washington (7-4): Already discussed the Redskins' situation above. Cliffs' Notes version: Washington needs a home win against a good team.