The Playoff Push: Did Atlanta Blow Its Chance?

It's amazing how one week - and, more specifically, one loss - can totally change your outlook in the NFL this season.

After Week 10, Atlanta looked like an upstart that had grabbed the inside track on the playoffs thanks to a win over New Orleans. Just seven days later, though, the Falcons blew a lead late against Denver, lost a critical home game and now need to do some major regrouping.

The schedule (at least prior to Week 17 against St. Louis) is unfriendly. Atlanta hosts 8-2 Carolina this Sunday, then travels to San Diego and New Orleans, hosts Tampa Bay and heads to Minnesota. There is not a gimmie in the bunch.

And while Matt Ryan has not played like a rookie quarterback this season - the fact that he is a rookie QB cannot be overlooked. Ryan still has to show he can hold up in the heat of a playoff chase, not to mention handle the beating that a 16-game NFL schedule deals out.

A win over the Panthers this week, and the Falcons' fortunes reverse again - they'll be right in the thick of the NFC South race with five weeks left. But lose and they would probably have to win at both San Diego and New Orleans in the next couple of weeks.

Now onto the latest playoff picture:




Explaining the positions of: Pittsburgh and the Jets

Both teams are 7-3. Both teams lead their respective divisions. Yet, the Steelers jump into the "Sittin' Pretty" category, while the Jets stay on the bubble. What gives?

Basically, it comes down to the belief that the Steelers face less of a threat from the Ravens than the Jets do from the Patriots and Dolphins. Baltimore's definitely in a position to prove me wrong, but right now I've got them chalked up for at least two more losses - and that's not counting the Dec. 14 showdown with Pittsburgh.

So, say that I'm right. That would put Baltimore at six losses. Even with a Ravens' win over the Steelers, Pittsburgh would have to lose two more games somewhere. I'm not entirely convinced that's going to happen. Meanwhile, if (when?) the Jets lose in Tennessee this weekend, the winner of the Miami-New England game would be back in a first place tie.

Show us what you're made of: Philadelphia

The Eagles are getting close to the end of the line here. The tough home loss to the Giants, plus last week's miserable tie has Philly in a precarious spot. A loss to the Bengals would have hurt worse, yes, but not winning did not help, obviously.

Philadelphia still has to go to New York and Washington, plus host Arizona and Dallas. You do not want to face that schedule with a 5-5-1 record. Beating Baltimore to get to 6-4-1 does not guarantee anything in terms of the postseason, but it's certainly a better spot to be.

One foot in the ground: Buffalo

This one's obvious. Four straight losses, including Monday's debacle, and the Bills are heading toward the light. They can right the ship by winning at K.C. this week, and following that up with wins over San Francisco and Miami. But if Buffalo loses even one of those games, it's probably game over.

Time to wake up: Washington Redskins

Look, 3-3 at home is not going to cut it. Not with the Giants and Eagles still left on the FedEx Field calendar. New York is running away with the East, and Dallas is on the road back. In my mind, this week's game in Seattle is an absolute must-win for Washington.

And Finally ... Five Games on the Playoff Radar :

1. New England (6-4) at Miami (6-4): This is a monster, both in the AFC East and in the overall postseason picture. If New England falls to 0-2 against Miami, the Pats may face a "Win out" situation to get in the playoffs.
2. Philadephia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4): The Giants dismantled Baltimore in Week 10, and the Ravens still face every other NFC East team this year. A fall to 5-5-1 may signal the end for the struggling Eagles.
3. Indianapolis (6-4) at San Diego (4-6): Can the Colts continue their second-half charge? If they do, San Diego's waning hope of taking the AFC West will be gone.
4. Green Bay (5-5) at New Orleans (5-5): The Pack is still very much alive, thanks to the relative mediocrity of the NFC North. No such luck for the Saints, who are out of the NFC South race - and will basically be out of the NFC playoff race with a loss on Monday.
5. Giants (9-1) at Arizona (7-3): I can't believe I'm writing this, but the Cardinals have a legit shot at a first-round bye. That possibility dies with a loss here, because then both New York and Carolina (the current one and two seeds) would have wins over Kurt Warner's bunch.