Sweed Is Dropping His Chance

Two weeks ago, Willie Reid was thought to be battling for a roster spot, now could he possibly start the season as the No. 4 receiver?

It's still unlikely, but as Limas Sweed keeps dropping passes, it's a fair to ask if the Steelers can depend on a rookie who has dropped three passes in the past two weeks. While Sweed is watching his chances slip through his fingers, Reid now leads the Steelers receivers in receptions (9) and yards (81).

What is pretty apparent, and something that is being mentioned by Steelers beat writers is that the team could be in the market for plucking a veteran receiver off the waiver wire. Sweed could end up being a pretty good receiver, even by the end of this year. But right now he's pretty inconsistent.The stats bear that out. Football Outsiders has popularized the catch percentage stat. It's pretty simple, as it just shows what percentage of passes thrown to a specific receiver are caught. While admittedly not every incomplete pass is the receiver's fault, their stats have shown that even with different quarterbacks, the best receivers usually catch a higher percentage of passes than poor receivers. It also helps show how often an individual receiver has been targeted.

Receiver	Catch	Target	Percentage
Washington	3	4	75%
Ward	5	7	71%
Baker	6	9	67%
Reid	9	15	60%
Holmes	3	6	50%
Sweed	8	16	50%
Totals	34	57	60%

What it shows is that Sweed actually has had more passes thrown to him than anyone else on the Steelers' team this preseason. He also has the lowest catch percentage on the team. But Dallas Baker has actually been the most efficient among the three guys battling for the No. 4 and No. 5 jobs.

That doesn't mean that Baker is the best choice to be the No. 4 receiver. If the Steelers can't find someone off the waiver wire, they'll likely go with a lot of three wide receiver, one tight end formations in passing situations--Heath Miller is likely more effective than any of the three until Sweed remembers how to catch.

But in those cases where the Steelers want to go with four wide receivers, it seems that Reid would be best for the job in the short term. While Reid hasn't shown the ability to get deep against anybody, he does seem comfortable running the hitches and underneath routes that can be useful on third down, which is largely when the Steelers No. 4 receiver will be in the game. The other argument for keeping him over Dallas Baker--his main competition for the final receiver spot--is that Baker is a slower version of Sweed. Both are big tall targets, while Reid is more like a bargain-basement version of Antwan Randle-El who can do his best work in the slot trying to move the chains.

For all the hope that the Steelers' receiver depth this year might end up being exceptional, right now it looks thinner than last year, when Cedrick Wilson was a pretty decent No. 4 option.