Don't Count Out Nate Washington

Steelers fans love big receivers.

Ever since Plaxico Burress left town and the Steelers started fielding a roster of smurf-like receivers, fans have been asking for a new big target. Ben Roethlisberger even got into the act before the draft, asking for some bigger targets.

But now that 6-foot-4 Limas Sweed is snagging most everything thrown his way in training camp, what is a realistic expectation for the rookie out of Texas?

There seems to be a lot of expectations that Sweed will step in and immediately take over the No. 3 wide receiver job, bumping Nate Washington down to the No. 4 spot. While that might seem exciting, a closer look makes it seem somewhat unlikely.

Even if Sweed is fully recovered from the wrist injuries that ruined his senior season at Texas (and it looks like he is), the simple reality is that rookie receivers rarely make much of an impact in Pittsburgh.
If you go back through the years, few Steelers receivers have made much of an impact as rookies. And in general, second-round receivers have not been that productive as rookies. According to Football Outsiders' Pro Football Prospectus, since 2000 the average second-round pick has 27 catches for 355 yards as a rookie, which is not a whole lot different than Cedric Wilson's production as the Steelers' No. 4 receiver last year.

But the biggest thing standing between Sweed and a larger role is Nate Washington. A lot of Steelers fans focus on what Washington does poorly--he drops way too many balls. Last year, he had dropped five passes to go with 29 catches. But if you focus on what Washington does well, it's pretty clear that he's an above-average No. 3 receiver.

Washington is very good at getting open deep, which is a very useful role on a team that has Heath Miller and Hines Ward to work the middle and underneath. As Ward has aged, he's used on deep routes less and less often--only 20 percent of passes thrown to Ward last year were thrown more than 16 yards downfield. In comparison, 46 percent of passes thrown to Washington were on these deep routes.

Washington showed last year that he's not really a good fit as a fill-in starter, which is why he'll likely be gone when he hits free agency. And if Ward or Holmes is lost for a significant period of time, Sweed may be a better choice as the fill-in as a starter. But if the Steelers are looking for someone to stretch the defense while Ward slides into the slot on third down, Washington is still a close-to-perfect fit for that role, which explains while he'll still likely be a big part of the Steelers' offense in 2008.