Houston Texans Offseason Roadmap

For the fans of those teams whose seasons are done, FanHouse is doing an offseason roadmap for all the NFL teams. This is the one for the Houston Texans.

The most important thing to read for Houston Texans fans going into the offseason is the last press conference of the season given by coach Gary Kubiak. Like with last year's end of the year presser, he basically gives a roadmap of what the priorities are for the team going into next season. I will sum this up and discuss:

1. Player Acquisitions. If you are looking at Texans priorities, focus on left tackle, running back and corner back because that is what Kubiak does in the presser. There's plenty of positions of need (a true free safety, a nose tackle, and a functioning defensive end opposite DE Mario Williams), but the areas he mentions are probably of the highest need.

Though he claims he is hopeful running back Ahman Green will be back healthy with the team, he recognizes that consistency of who is running the ball is crucial for the team. "Game time decision" isn't who you want as your starter at running back, especially when running the ball is a priority for the team. Kubiak says that he needs to find some younger players at this position.

He learned from his first year that he can' t depend on injured players coming back, so due to the severe injuries to defensive back Dunta Robinson, he is looking to help the secondary.

With the increasing age of left tackle Ephraim Salaam and the injury and weight of left tackle Charles Spencer, a young left tackle may also be a priority. In the presser, he mentions moving Spencer to guard, but given the nature of his injury, Spencer's weight and the hiring of zone blocking guru Alex Gibbs as assistant head coach, Spencer is going to have to lose some significant weight and have a remarkable rehab to not be an injury settlement. Gibbs claims he doesn't mind big offensive linemen, but they have to be guys who can move.

2. Turnovers. The Texans were killed with turnovers in the offseason. The Texans threw for 21 interceptions, 4th most in the league, and were -13 in turnover margin, which is second worst in the league behind the Ravens.

Kubiak says he is going to analyze each turnover in the offseason but says in general that if the team could run better, they would probably take less chances and protect the ball better. Hiring Gibbs goes a long way to improve the run game because it has improved everywhere he's been. No matter whether the personnel he had fit the scheme, he improved the running game.

3. Injuries. After Kubiak's first season as head coach, the Texans led the league in players on IR. When that happened, he said he was going to look into the way they were doing things to see if this could be prevented.

I don't know what changes were made if any, but year two of Kubiak as Texans coach resulted in leading the league in players on IR and games missed by players due to injuries. Going 8-8 even with significant games missed by your starting quarterback, running back, center and #1 wide receiver and corner is actually an impressive accomplishment, but you wonder if there is something more than bad luck to account for all the team injuries.

In the presser, he acknowledges the injuries and doesn't say much about preventing them for the future other than suggesting that the Texans can't depend that injured players will be able to come back and that the team needs to acquire younger players.

4. Defense. The Texans defense, for the second year in a row, is near the bottom of the barrel in the league. This defense completed its second year transitioning from a 3-4 to a predominantly 4-3, and the squad dealt with substantial injuries and had to defend short fields after turnovers.

That being said, not being able to stop the Jaguar backups in the last game of the season is pretty embarrassing, even though the offense and special teams for the Texans were able to pull out the win.

The Texans were tied for last in the league with interceptions (11), and tied for 21st in the league for sacks (31).

Kubiak in the presser suggests that the secondary needs to be improved and the defensive line needs to become more balanced. "Balanced" is code for defensive end Anthony Weaver playing unwell due to his shoulder surgeries, and Mario Williams obtaining 45.2% of the Texans sacks, the highest single player sack percentage of any team in the league.

So the question is given the abysmal performance of the defense, are the Texans going to stay put on their coaching or are they going to do something on the defensive side of the ball as splashy as hiring Alex Gibbs for the offensive side of the ball? Or do they believe that continuing to add and develop talent on that side of the ball without changing the defensive coaching personnel will lead to a better product on the field?

I'm not sold on whether just adding talent will work because just about the nicest thing that most Texans fans have to say about defensive coordinator Richard Smith is that he is inexperienced.

What we do know about the GM Rick Smith/Kubiak-era Texans is that if they see problems on the team, they are pretty decisive in dealing with them. Ditching quarterback David Carr and his cap hit is an illustration of that. Or focusing on getting a group of reliable special team returners after the return game was an adventure the previous year. Choosing defensive players high in the draft to try fixing the defense. Even the Ahman Green acquisition was an attempt to solve the running game issues with someone who knew what he was doing.

Overall, there is a lot of optimism for this Texans team going into next year that with some more pieces and parts they will be able to continue to improve. They were 6-2 at home this year, and there's the hope that this young team can improve its road record and toughness and find its way to the playoffs.

What are your thoughts about the Texans offseason?

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

1-23-2008 @ 10:45AM

Justin said...

Here's a need: a starting QB that can stay healthy...cause that isn't Schaub.

1-23-2008 @ 10:52AM

Stephanie Stradley said...

Justin-

Hard to say whether quarterback durability is going to be an issue with Schaub as it has only been one season. One of the times he got knocked out of a game was due to a cheap shot. It was such a bad cheap shot that shortly after that, the NFL changed the rules for cheapshotting the QB that way, saying that players would be suspended for that sort of conduct.

With Schaub/Rosenfels and the coaching of Kubiak, I would consider the QB position for the Texans as being one of their strong points in comparison to the rest of the team. Injuries are a concern because of a lack of track record, but I think something has to happen more than one season to be a real problem.

If you look around the league, starting quarterbacks go down and often the best teams in the league are the ones that had good fortune not to get their QB hurt. Check out all the concern about Tom Brady's foot this week.

1-23-2008 @ 6:56PM

DM said...

I think we need to do two things: improve the pass rush and run the ball more consistently. Yes, it would be nice to have better corners (I think our safeties are much improved from last year with Von Hutchins and Wil Demps), but I think if we had another edge rusher, our secondary would look much better. I look at the Giants and they get so much pressure on the quarterback that their secondary is seldom exposed. As for improving the running game, we can do that one of two ways, a better running back or a better offensive line. Since our line play is likely to improve with Gibbs with no infusion of talent, I am wanting a new running back before a new offensive lineman. Especially since the running game is more affected by guard play than by tackle play.

So what does all of this mean? I am hoping our first pick will be either Jonathan Stewart, RB, from Oregon or Calais Campbell, DE, from Miami. I know Campbell would not be the sexy pick (ANOTHER defensive lineman!), but I think he would significantly upgrade our defensive pressure. If we can’t get him, then Jonathan Stewart. He will improve our team more than anybody else THIS year.

1-16-2008 @ 3:31PM

Carlos said...

Well I like the addition of Alex Gibbs - I think thats huge - bigger than some people will realize because of his track record.

I think we'll draft well again this year - I liked what we did last year (with the draft) - we found alot of quality players in there and I think that will be the case this year.

And while I realize the importance of running back - I think you address the defense first either secondary or another DL (yeah I know we picked others before but they were picked by Casserly and they are average at best). The addition of Gibbs means we can pick up a running back later like say 3rd round - most important though with all that is that we draft the running back that fits our system best not just how productive he was (like square peg in round hole - just doesn't fit).

I like the addition of Okobi (center) already. Its going to be an intresting time leading up to the draft.

Go Texans!!

One more quick note - not sure if we make the playoffs next year (we have alot more quality players but lack depth) but I think we'll have a winning record.

DiehardChris said...

Good stuff, Stephanie.

I would personally draft for defense in the first round, but admittedly it would be difficult to pass up one of the stud RBs if they're still on the board.

The thing about the defense is this - if you fix one of either the pass rush or pass coverage, it will automatically improve the other. If our pass rush had been better last year, we wouldn't have had so many problems in the secondary. If our secondary had covered better, we would have had more sacks. I'm all for the franchise RB, but I won't be upset if we go DB first.

1-16-2008 @ 3:32PM

Richard Sanders said...

Good stuff Steph, you are by far the best blogger here and the Houston fans are lucky to have you.

I agree we need help at LT. It has become one of the most if not the most important position on offense next to the QB. I wouldnt be suprise to see our 1st round, 18th overall pick be a LT, but if the talent isnt there I would bet we would once again take a DE.

I believe Kubiak while draft a RB this year, but like his mentor, he is smart enough to know he can find the talent he needs late in the draft and he will not waste a 1st day pick on this position.

It is sad what has happened to Dunta, he is my favorite Texan and outside of Andre he is the most talented player pound for pound we have. Bennet look great last year and I believe he can start next year and prove to be a formidable opponent for any wide reciever in the league.

I hope the find some safety help aswell. I like our front 7 right now. Sure there is a hole at DE opposite Mario, but our linebackers played well. I really liked what I saw from Charlie Anderson.

As for Richard Smith, I think we all should give him some credit. Yes our defense played poorely last year, but considering what happened in our secondary I think he should be given some props for putting a team on the field that ended up 8-8. Correct me if I am wrong but we had a great red zone defense last year. That speaks heavily for a lack of depth and talent at the safety position, but proves our front 7 is a very capable group and should only get better considering the average age.

I do have one questoin, the Texans run a 4-3 now. I played some ball in my day and I have never heard of a 4-3 that had a nose takle? You had mentioned that we needed one? The two defensive takles we have now, Okoye and Johnson, look good this year, I thought it was a breakout year for Johnson. He looked like a different player and I believe he played a key a role in Mario having such a great year.

1-16-2008 @ 4:33PM

Thanks for the good comments all.

If the *right* guy isn't in the first round, I'd love to get some sort of trade down to get more picks given that the Texans don't have a second round pick this year.

I like the idea of going defense first if we can but there are so many needs this is certainly a best player available sort of situation. The Texans have shown that they can do some make do on offense using their system, but the defense, particularly the secondary just makes you nervous.

Richard, as for the NT in the 4-3, though I didn't explain my reasoning much, I am thinking that Mario Williams/Amobi Okoye would be best served with a space eating NT. Travis Johnson is roughly the same sized player as Amobi Okoye--6'2", 6'3", around 300-305.

(Charley Casserly admitted that he had difficulty learning how to draft defensive line players for the 3-4, and Travis Johnson is a hold over from his drafting).

For more explanation of a NT in a 4-3, I suggest looking at these resources:

specific to the Texans: http://www.atexansblog.com/2007/05/30/gary-kubiak-understands-defensive-line-positioning/

as it relates to a 4-3:

http://football.calsci.com/DefensiveLine.html

There's some suggestion out there that Richard Smith wants very mobile guys for his defensive line, and prefers lighter guys. But I have no idea what his 4-3 is suppose to look like--some teams use bigger or smaller guys on the line depending on what they are trying to do. He doesn't have a track record of running a 4-3, so we don't know what a Smith guy/defense is supposed to look like.

Lots of money has been spent on the line, but clearly it is still out of balance given the switch from the 3-4, and that the Weaver FA signing is not working out because he isn't rushing the passer from his DE position, and he is not a good physical fit to play DT, and he was ineffective coming off of shoulder surgery.

As for the Texans red zone defense, they were in the bottom third in CHFF's Bendability index:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_988_Bendability_Index.html

Near the absolute bottom in Big Plays Allowed, tied for 30th with only Detroit being worse:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1663_2007_Big_Play_Index.html

They are ranked 27th worst for rushing yards against, 31st in forcing negative passing plays, and 23rd with 3rd downs allowed:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html

The pass defense was absolutely awful:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_999_Def._Passer_Rating.html

Interestingly, the Texans red zone OFFENSE ended the year rated 4th:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL+Statistics/Inside+the+Red+Zone/2007/17redzn.htm

But the red zone defense was rated in the middle of the pack:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL+Statistics/Inside+the+Red+Zone/2007/17redzn.htm?mode=defense

The red zone defense was ranked roughly the same as last year. So I guess compared to the awfulness of other aspects of the defense, the red zone defense was average, which makes it look better in comparison.

I don't know what to make of all the stats, but what I do know is that I see improvement on the offensive side of the ball and a coherent philosophy, but on the defensive side of the ball, I see chaos. Both offense and defense had significant injuries, but you could see the offensive scheme making the sum of the parts better than the individual players. On defense, you can see great individual performances (Williams, Ryans), in the middle of a big play giving up, simplistic mess.

The Texans aren't the only team in the league to be playing a lot of young guys on defense. In the salary cap era, you have to. But you also in this era, you have to have a system in place that is easy for rookies and free agents to learn and believe in. Whatever the stats say, I am not seeing it.

Thanks all for reading and commenting. Let's keep this dialogue going.
Steph

1-16-2008 @ 8:54PM

Big Sam said...

The 2006 Texans' defense was on rise towards the end of the year. In 2007 they were consistently atrocious. How can the defensive coordinator keep his job when there are so many better candidates out there including one that's already on the payroll... Frank Bush...

1-17-2008 @ 9:19AM

Chris F. said...

It seems to be either the defensive linemen just aren't jelling or the secondary is just plain patheic. Does Smith run a scheme that is too complicated?

As for the draft, I would lean towards an offensive lineman or runningback in the first round.

1-18-2008 @ 9:12AM

Tom said...

I think for someone like Brandon Frye Alex Gibbs will be a lot of help, because he had little to 0 experience on offensive line even in college.

People say this draft is deep at running back, which you would think would cause underclassmen to play another year, but I guess not.

What I think the Texans need is a strong safety that covers like a corner but hits like a linebacker, and a free safety that covers like a corner but hits like a linebacker, and another cornerback that covers like a cornerback but hits like a linebacker, as well as an outside linebacker that can do all that too.

1-17-2008 @ 8:25PM

Unfortunately this is seen as a pretty weak draft for safeties. Right now I'm pretty locked in to wanting the Texans to draft the best offensive lineman on the board (unless there's just a huge run on them leading up to #18).

I really don't think the Texans are gonna go CB with that first round pick. That would mean that until Dunta returns, we'd have Bennett (who did well but got burned down the stretch) and a rookie as our starting CBs next year. That's a step backwards, IMO, unless the guy they got at 18 was just out of this world fantastic right away, which isn't likely.