Brady Quinn Stud Quarterback?

Posted Apr 17, 2007 5:22PM By JJ Cooper (RSS feed)

Text Size A A A

While there are plenty of draft experts that will break down quarterbacks on the basis of their physical tools and their game film, Dave Lewin has a different approach. The Football Outsider's author looks at stats to try to predict which first and second-round quarterbacks will be NFL stars, and which ones will join Dan McGwire, Akili Smith and David Klingler on the dustbin of history.

According to Lewin, Brady Quinn is easily the better, and safer, pick when compared to JaMarcus Russell. The system is pretty simple, Lewin says that college games played and completion percentage are the two best predictors of NFL success. Quinn was a four-year starter who completed 58 percent of his passes, while Russell started only 29 games--largely because the Tigers were worried enough about his decision making to keep trying out other quarterbacks until his junior season. Lewin doesn't hold back:

The numbers are not quite black and white (Quinn's completion percentage is a little low, Russell has a number of starts a little above complete bust territory), but they are pretty clear: Brady Quinn is a much better quarterback prospect than JaMarcus Russell.

Take the info or leave it, but this study seems to say that the Browns could end up the lucky ones if Russell goes to the Raiders. If you're want to see how last year's predictions stood up, here's his study of last year's quarterbacks heading into the 2006 draft.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

4-17-2007 @ 5:57PM

Diallo Tyson said...

Yes, I want the QB that's never won a bowl game. Nothing says clutch quite like that...

4-17-2007 @ 6:29PM

tedfio1 said...

Don't you know its politically incorrect to pick a white player over a black one; right Diallo.

4-17-2007 @ 7:04PM

I don't know about that, but it's stupid to pick a QB that sucks over one that doesn't.

4-17-2007 @ 7:16PM

Ben McKnight said...

JaMarcus Russell = Fatter, Stupider, Byron Leftwich.

Put it in the books. I'm not saying Quinn is the best choice, or will even be successful. But I know who won't be--JaMarcus and his fat ass.

4-17-2007 @ 10:33PM

Grant said...

First of all, Russell started all of his Sophomore year, had to compete and won the starting job his junior year. If they were trying out other QBs they didn't take very many snaps, JR had 19 or more attempts in every game his Sophomore year. His missed the bowl game due to injury and Flynn had great game, thus igniting the controversy. Les Miles wanted to see JR work for it and he did. Russell has a career completion percentage of 61.8%, compared to Peyton Manning's college mark of 62.8%. Like you say his starts are just over the bust limit and he's a junior. By Lewin 's own system the difference isn't newarly as much as you or he try to make out.

4-18-2007 @ 2:04AM

Brady Quinn sucks??? Diallo, it is funny that experts like Mel Kiper have him listed in the top 6 of all PLAYERS in this draft.I guess you know better; or your just looking at him through colored glasses.

4-18-2007 @ 4:07AM

G said...

I am by no means an expert,but I have been watching football for 40 years.I am certain of 2 things here.Russell is no Vince Young,not even close,and Quinn will be a very,very good QB.His ND teams were not very good at all,but without him,they would have been horrible.I am absolutely convinced,this kid has everything it takes to be a Pro Bowl QB if he's handled right.If the Raiders don't take him,they are fools.

4-18-2007 @ 5:42PM

comb said...

its hard to beat teams when u have no defense. im not saying jamarcuss russel isnt good but he had a complete team. come on, he was like bigger than everyone on nds defense.

4-18-2007 @ 5:47PM

luke said...

look how many come from behind wins quinn has had. "well hes never had a big win". uh yeah, didnt he beat the number 3 ranked michigan team at michigan. he also came back and beat ucla with like one minute left on his own 20 yard line. and who can forget the usc game where the trojans cheated and bush pushed leinart into the endzone. just cause u dont have a good defense doesnt mean u should be shot down when u dont win. what about eli manning. he played for like ole miss. im sure he never beat a usc, or a michigan. oh and ben roethlisberger, the youngest qb to win a superbowl, came from miami of ohio. he didnt beat texas or lsu. look at the quarterback. they had back to back 10 and 3 seasons. i dont consider that, that bad since they went like 6 and 7 three years ago.

4-19-2007 @ 1:01PM

Coach said...

Look at it this way: Two minute warning, you're trailing by four points, on your own 35 yard line, no timeouts remaining, facing a championship caliber defense in a playoff game. Who would you rather have behind center for you - Quinn or Russell?

I'd take Quinn. Russell may be better able to throw a 70-yard Hail-Mary pass, but I think Quinn has the intelligence and instincts to lead the team on a game winning, clock eating drive.

Either one could be an improvement for teams needing a new QB, but like the last comment said, I've been watching football over forty years too and I see more potential in Quinn. Russell may be bigger (getting fat?) and can throw a pass through a board at fifty yards. But who's going to do better in the NFL? I have to pick Quinn.

That said though, as a 40+ year Browns ticket holder, I hope we don't draft either one of them. Joe Thomas is the plyer who will make the most improvement in our offense, followed by Calvin Johnson, and then Adrian Peterson. But if Thomas and Johnson are gone by our turn, I'd look to trade down a few spots for an extra pick and get Levi Brown from Penn State, and then package the extra pick with our existing second round pick to move up to get the best remaining cornerback. Third-and-long passes have killed us too many times because we can't defend against them, and we then even lost one of our starting corners to free agency, so next to O-Line, that's got to be our biggest need (among many).

4-19-2007 @ 9:18PM

Curt said...

To all of you Quinn fans: Quinn is OVERRATED !!!!!! All of you have nothing but negativity for Jamarcus Russell but look closely at the whole picture. I bet you are the same guys that were saying to take Tim Couch instead of Donovan McNabb. Hmmmmmm.......... lets see: McNabb : still an NFL qb.... Couch: used car salesman. Get the picture ?? The OVERALL picture ?? Quinn will always be overrated, because everyone like you guys who think he is all that, and think he will be the next Peyton Manning are SADLY MISTAKEN !!!! I just hope the Browns don't make a foolish mistake and pick him. We do not need a QB.
DA ( Derek Anderson ) and Charlie ( Frye )can get it done. My preference is DA. With our line now, and if we can pick up Thomas, ( or Johnson, or Peterson ) we will be fine. GOOOOOOOOOO DAWGS !!!!!!!!!!!!!

4-20-2007 @ 10:32AM

linebacker said...

Correction to my last post -- I said "Anderson" when I was thinking "Peterson". The rest of what I wrote was right. Getting Thomas or Levi Brown in the first round will make the biggest immediate improvement to the Browns. Second round, I'd take the best available cornerback. If we end up trading down to get Brown, I'd package our second round pick and whatever we got for trading down, to move up as high as we can so we can get an even better cornerback. Next to improving our O-line blocking, we've absolutely GOT to improve our pass coverage on third-and-long situations!!!

Russell and Quinn both have enough potential to become good NFL quarterbacks. The point is, that's not what the Browns need most. As Curt said, Frye or Anderson can do the job if they have a decent team to lead. The reference to Tim Couch missed that point - he honestly could have been very, very good with a good team, but we surrounded him with castoffs who wouldn't have even made most teams' rosters as backups, and after he was beaten senseless for several years, we decided HE wasn't good enough? Heck, if John Elway had to play on those old Browns teams, he "wouldn't have been good enough" either!

Anderson is a terrific running back, but if anyone out there thinks the Offensive Line is going to be good enough as it stands today, check this morning's Plain Dealer -- Eric Steinbach taken to the hospital for an appendectomy yesterday. LeCharles Bentley probably going to have yet another operation on his knee which will rule him out all season again. We need to bolster the O-line or nothing else is going to make much difference. Joe Thomas - no question about it. If he goes before our pick, trade down just a few spots and take Levi Brown from Penn State. Without one of those two, we're looking at no fewer than ten losses again this year.