NFL

Most Likely to Fall Off: Bears or Colts?

Appearing in a Super Bowl one year does not guarantee that you'll be even a playoff team next year ... ask the Steelers. Both the Steelers and the Seahawks slipped a little bit after their Super Bowl XL appearances. Sometimes it's injuries, sometimes a team gets a little full of themselves, sometimes a team's veteran leadership doesn't return to the team and instead opts to spend a year spouting trite, meaningless cliches on NBC.

So which of this year's XLI participants is more likely to slip next year?

I don't think it's going to be the Colts ... mainly because they've been so good for so long. I'm not saying they'll win the Super Bowl next year, but unless Jim Sorgi decides to kidnap and murder Peyton Manning, it's hard to imagine that the Colts won win 10+ games next year.

As MDS went over earlier today, they're not likely to have a ton of roster turnover. They're not an old team at the key positions (Marvin Harrison doesn't age like normal human beings, and Peyton Manning has never had any use for athleticism), so that shouldn't hurt them. The one thing I see derailing them could be the departure of Tony Dungy, but it's my guess that he'll be back.

So that leaves the Bears, and there's no reason to believe that their defense won't maintain, or even improve, they will have some other issues to deal with.

They've got to hope that Ron Rivera doesn't get the Cowboys job. If he does, that could set the defense back a little bit, having to adjust to a new coaches strategies and philosophies.

And then, of course, there's the quarterback position. It's all anyone wants to talk about ... if they replace Rex Grossman, there will be a ton of pressure on the new guy (and there really isn't much out there on the free agent market), and if they don't ... well, I don't know if Rex Grossman, or anyone, could take an entire offseason of questions like, "Hey Rex, why do you suck so bad?"

Lovie Smith's got a lot of work to do in the off-season to make sure the Bears can even get back to the level where they are right now.

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