Looking Ahead To The Chargers 2007 Draft

Lordy, where to start?

The San Diego Chargers were the better team on paper, but on the field they couldn't pull out a victory from the clutches of the New England Patriots. What will go down forever in the minds of Chargers fans as a game with 'too many mistakes,' was a contest in which the players ultimately determined the outcome, not the coaching staff. In such a large stage, certain players made a name for themselves, while others highlighted their flaws immensely. As the Chargers season is now over, it is only natural to look ahead to the 2007 draft. I will do my best to break-down the directions the Chargers will look to go from a personnel standpoint.

Philip Rivers needs reliable weapons on the outside and unfortunately his wide receivers were a let down.

Malcom Floyd, an emerging big target for Rivers, had a season ending injury that halted what looked to be a breakout year. At 6' 5" 225 lbs, Floyd had shown potential as a guy who could get behind the defense and make things happen using his height and impressive wingspan. He is a guy who could emerge as a playmaker in 2007, especially considering he was a frequent target for Philip Rivers in practice for the past few years.

Vincent Jackson has rare size and speed (6' 5", 241 lbs), and could dominate most defensive backs from an athletic standpoint. But he is still very much a developing player who needs to get better at catching the ball from a higher point. He tends to cradle the ball into his body as opposed to snatching the ball out of the air. Malcom Floyd is excellent at attacking the football, but isn't nearly the blocker that Jackson is and doesn't have Jackson's upside. In 2007, Jackson will be in his magical 3rd NFL season where Wide Outs traditionally make their biggest strides in development.

The Jackson and Floyd will be in the Chargers future and both posses tremendous upside. However, Eric Parker and Keenan McCardell were disappointments this season.

Parker is undersized (6'0", 180 lbs) and cannot break tackles. He is not an effective blocker and he is an average (at best) punt returner. Parker has great speed but will go down, sometimes very hard, at first contact with a defender. He has had virtually the same type of season for the past 3 years, so it isn't likely that he will ever be more than what he has shown to be. He has essentially reached his ceiling, and his size makes him somewhat of a liability for injuries. He has good hands, but in the playoffs missed catches and muffed a punt. This performance reflects poorly on him and will likely be a determining factor in the Chargers decision to draft a Wide Receiver.

McCardell has had an excellent 15 year career and has done it all. He is already in the record books, won championships, been to the Pro Bowl, etc. Looking at his future in the NFL as a player, the road doesn't go very far. He was banged up some this year, and his production was down overall. He averaged only 2.5 catches a game and he and Parker had zero touchdown catches all year. Multiple times on the year he had trouble securing the ball when a tackler engaged him, and like Parker he cannot break tackles and makes most of his catches on the sideline. While McCardell still has good speed, he is also undersized (6'1", 191 lbs) - almost frail. His blocking is unspectacular and he is not a good punt returner.

McCardell's age and declining production, combined with Parker's inability to raise his level of play over the years, make drafting a Wide Receiver on day one an easy decision.

The defensive secondary made big improvements this season, getting major contributions from guys like Quentin Jammer and Marlon McCree. While those two had impressive seasons, they basically carried the rest of the secondary on their backs. Drayton Florence was supposed to have a big season with rookie Antonio Cromartie pushing him for a starting job. While Florence was solid for most of the season, he dropped numerous potential interceptions and got flagged twice in the same drive in the playoff loss to New England. Florence has great potential and was tested throughout the season by opposing offenses. He has improved his play each year, but there are questions about his attitude – he is known as a talker and someone who openly celebrates during games, almost in a demeaning manner. Drayton has the talent and ability, it is now a matter of pulling it all together from a mental standpoint. If he can keep his attitude in check and play smarter, he could be a very good cornerback. But his contract is nearing its end, and Cromartie is steadily progressing in his development. There has been little word out of Chargers Park about a possible contract extension for Florence, so it would not surprise me to see AJ Smith draft another cornerback this year.

While a day one Cornerback is a possibility, a day one Safety is all but guaranteed. Terrance Kiel and Clinton Hart have had opportunities to prove to the coaches that they could play, but neither guy was able to steadfastly secure a starting job. Both players have glaring weaknesses and when looking at the entire starting defense, are clearly the worst players. Kiel is fighting legal battles over possessing large quantities of prescription cough medicine and will likely but cut in the offseason. Clinton Hart is not starting material but is a solid backup.

I expect the Chargers to draft a safety in round 1 or 2, and will likely grab someone who brings leadership qualities, playmaking ability, and fits the Chargers' theme of having big, physical players in the secondary. Marlon McCree has proven to be a good fit at Free Safety, so it makes sense for the Chargers to get a Strong Safety who can match up with Tight Ends and is great in run support. It would be a plus for the player to have good ball skills as well because the Chargers need to capitalize more on turnover opportunities when they present themselves.

Another position that will clearly be address is the linebacker position. The Chargers lost both outside pass rushers for extended periods of time, and those pass rushers are critical with how the Chargers play defense in their 3-4. The team will likely lose both of their starting ILBs, Godfrey to retirement and Edwards to free agency. Two guys who recently signed contract extensions, Wilhelm and Cooper, will be promoted to starting roles. But the Chargers will need new depth across the board in the linebacker corp. I think that another pass rush specialist, a DE/OLB hybrid player, would be a smart position to address in the draft, in addition to adding an inside backer or two to pair with Dobbins as backups and special-teamers. Cooper and Wilhelm played big roles in special teams, but as starters they won't be asked to cover kicks anymore.

AJ Smith has a history of finding Linebacker gems in rounds 4 and 5, and those players typically play special teams for a few years before getting the opportunity to start. But if there is unique pass rush athlete sitting there at pick 30, don't be surprised if the Chargers pull the trigger.

The offensive line was another unit that exceeded expectations, but I had felt strongly as early as the preseason that the Chargers possessed a top 10 offensive line. The were arguably the best line in football in the 2006 season, and much credit is due to the left side – McNeil, Dielman, and Hardwick. RG Mike Goff has played solidly but it would be smart to start prepping a player to assume his starting job down the line. Some feel strongly that RT Shane Olivea would make a find guard, so there is always the option of sliding him inside eventually. Personally, I am fine with Olivea at tackle, but I am also strongly in favor of making the team better, and if that means the Chargers move him inside, then so be it. However, I find it hard to envision them doing so, and see a much more likely scenario of them drafting a top college guard. A day one offensive lineman is a likely possibility.

If the Chargers took a day one guard prospect, it would be with the intention of the player starting in a year's time – barring injury. The Chargers will have multiple day one picks, and it would not be a luxury pick to take a lineman... it would be a smart pick.

I am a pretty big draft head, so stay tuned for some further draft analysis over the next few months.