So... I interviewed a 3-year-old kid. He barely knows any English, cannot read, and still has to have his Mom dress him in the morning, and even HE knows that LJ is going to carry the ball 30+ times today when the Chiefs square off against the Colts. When the Chiefs pass the ball:
So many experts want to tell us that LJ is the key to this football game. He is not. The key for the Chiefs is their passing game and how they will help set up LJ. If the Chiefs can effectively move the football in the air, it is scary to think about how much damage LJ can inflict on a Colts' defense that isn't loading up every player in the box.
That means that the two most important Chiefs' players in today's game are going to be Jordan Black and Trent Green. I know, I know. Disconcerting, isn't it? Jordan Black has got to give Trent Green time to throw the ball and Green has got to give his offense a chance to move the ball in the air. More importantly, Trent Green has GOT to stop throwing the ball into the hands of his opponents. As I mentioned in a radio spot on "360 the Pitch", I think a sleeper in this game is going to be Eddie Kennison. He is exactly the guy that can stretch the defense out and, the less defenders paying attention to LJ the better.
Realize one thing: the most important thing the Chiefs can do to win the game is to keep Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense off the field. If Solari is smart, he will utilize a short passing attack.A 40-yard bomb is nice, but I would rather see the Chiefs run 8 plays for 40 yards that eats up 5 minutes of clock. Expect the Chiefs to use Tony Gonzalez... a lot. He is their guy that can get them the short yardage passes the Chiefs will need to move the chains. Also, with every safety and linebacker zooming in with tunnel vision on LJ in the backfield, that only means less players will be keying in on Tony Gonzalez. Even if Gonzalez doesn't make any catches, it is absolutely important for the Chiefs to throw the ball to him. He is one of those weapons that can be a running back's best friend.
When the Chiefs run the ball:
LJ will carry the ball 30+ times (tell me something I don't know). Don't be surprised if that number jumps to 35 or 40 times. Then again, if the Chiefs don't put points up early, don't be surprised if very few of those carries come in the second half. LJ is going to get a ton of yards, but it doesn't help to have a star RB against a poor run defense if you're clawing from 14 points behind. What is going to be the main determinant of success for LJ is how long the Chiefs can stay in this football game.
The personnel of the Colts simply does not align with the Chiefs'. The Colts are a very small defense against a big, powerful offensive line and a bruising running back. Even with the return of Bob Sanders, the Colts are still going to struggle to stop the run. LJ will eclipse 100 yards. It is very hard to imagine a reason why he would not.
Still, I can't help but wonder if all the media attention surrounding the Colts' miserable run defense is only making the Colts' defense hungrier. This is the playoffs. It's hard to imagine that the Colts haven't studied and studied and studied more effective ways to play run defense. It's not just the huge size advantage the Chiefs have in the trenches where bruisers like Brian Waters are just way too much weight for the Colts to handle, it's also the Colts' defense's inability to understand gap assignments, which can be taught and that's what scares me. Still, the size advantage for the Chiefs is going to be way too much for the Colts. Not to mention, the Chiefs' defense in 2003 struggled with fundamentals like gap assignments all year, and no amount of negative attention changed the Chiefs' defensive woes. As a Chiefs' fan, I can only hope that the same will hold true for the 2006 Colts' woeful defense.
Prediction:
I think the Chiefs are going to be successful in establishing a rhythm on offense and should effectively keep Peyton Manning off the field. This game could go either way. As a Chiefs' fan, I am obligated to give the Chiefs the nod in this one, but in reality, I think the odds are 50/50 that the Chiefs will win and I don't see either team pulling away in a very big way. I don't think it's going to be the shootout that everyone expects. I think that both teams are going to play a lot of ball control (the Chiefs with a running attack, the Colts with a passing attack) to keep Peyton Manning and Larry Johnson off the field. Chiefs 21 - Colts 17.
