The Chiefs' offense comes into the game on quite a roll. Ever since mustering up next to nothing against Pittsburgh, the Chiefs have averaged 32 points a game. Through the efficiency of Damon Huard and the relentlessness of Larry Johnson, the offense looks like it is on the same kind of roll it was on around this point last season.The Dolphins' defense came to life last week against the Chicago Bears. The defense forced turnovers, was in the backfield far more often than the Bears wanted to see, and created scoring opportunities for their offense.
When the Chiefs run the ball
It has never been a secret that Herm Edwards wants Larry Johnson to run the ball, and to run it a lot. Mike Solari struggled with that notion at first, unsure of when to give LJ the ball, but knowing that he needed to get it. In recent weeks, Solari has not struggled with that notion at all, and LJ has responded with 460 yards in his last 3 games. Credit the offensive line-- much like last year, the big guys started off slowly, but became a dominant unit by midseason. The loss of Brian Waters could affect Johnson's ability to run up the middle somewhat, but he has also become extremely adept at waiting for the blocks to develop. With veteran Chris Bober taking over for Waters, Johnson can have that same confidence in letting the blocks develop.
Miami's defense has actually exceeded expectations this year. They are not the elite unit they were several years ago, but they have played solid, if unspectacular, defense in six of their eight games. Part of it is that their defensive line has come together nicely. Keith Traylor and Dan Wilkinson take up a lot of room and clog up the middle, allowing the linebackers to roam a bit more freely. Although Miami gives up over 100 yards rushing per game, Larry Johnson will have to earn his yards this week.
When the Chiefs pass the ball
Damon Huard is the big story now, not just around Kansas City, but all over the NFL. His secret? That offensive line again. Not only has Huard had more time than most QBs should expect to have in the pocket, but he also knows the blocking schemes so well, he steps up in the pocket well before a defender can reach him. Huard has looked exceptionally confident the last few weeks, partly because most of the time he can hand the ball off to Johnson.
The other secret to Huard's success is knowing which weapons to use. Tony Gonzalez had been relatively quiet for a long time, dating back to last year, but he has become a force in recent weeks. The emergence of Kris Wilson at fullback has also been enormous. Wilson is an excellent receiver, and he is an excellent threat when coming out of the backfield. He has also been a surprisingly effective blocker, so we are seeing the Chiefs using fullback sets more often than we have been accustomed to.
The Dolphins' pass defense always starts with Jason Taylor. In what was his game of the season, Taylor was a dominant force against the Bears. The Dolphins' pass rush scared the living daylight out of Rex Grossman and forced him to make what seemed like dozens of turnovers. However, they are dealing with a more polished quarterback in Huard, so if they want to come after Huard, they will have to make sure they get him.
The Dolphins' secondary has been their biggest surprise. Will Allen is finally living up to his potential, and the safeties have done a nice job in preventing big plays; thus, Gonzalez and Wilson will be the keys to the Chiefs' offense. If the Chiefs can consistently convert the intermediate passes, Gonzalez's and Wilson's specialty, then they will be on their way to another 30-point game. If the Dolphins take that threat away, the Chiefs will need to lean on Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker, something they do not want to have to do.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 16
